13,103 new cases and 341 new deaths in India.
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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)
- Thread starter GaWx
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Brent
Member
haha same here, July 20th for me...
heard its been madness down there since we reopened
NoSnowATL
Member
Yea I will be down on the 18th. Just need to keep pushing until Aug 1st. Then they can close.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Went to PCB during Memorial Day weekend. Best weekend of the year easily. Life feels completely normal down there and literally everything is open. Social distancing is non existent and I think I saw 2 mask the entire weekend. When I got back home it was a reality check bc everything is still so strict here compared to there.
cd2play
Member
Hoping they don't close at all.
Brent
Member
I haven't been in Dallas much where they are more strict but up here in the suburbs to the north I haven't seen nearly as many people making a big deal about the masks as they were a few weeks ago and most of the restaurants are open like normal
I saw a video from Galveston(where I'm going) and the beach didn't look like anyone really cared
NoSnowATL
Member
I don’t think they will.
GA reported changes in 24 hour increments ending on Fri 6/12 through Wed 6/17:
Date...………………...…….. Fri 6/12....Sat 6/13..Sun 6/14..Mon 6/15..Tue 6/16.....Wed 6/17
Tests (excluding antibodies): 7,493...…….13,254...…..16,286...…..7,089...……...4,218...……..15,450
Cases...……….......….……………….. 810...……….1,018...………..880...…….733...………...664...…………..952
Hospitalizations...……………….. 108...…………...43.........……..24...…......74...………….132...…………….89
ICU...………………….…………..……... 15...…………….8...…………….5...………..9...…………...22...…………….19
Deaths...……………...…………...…... 43......………...28...…...……….5...……...43......……...….35......………….46
Date...………………...…….. Fri 6/12....Sat 6/13..Sun 6/14..Mon 6/15..Tue 6/16.....Wed 6/17
Tests (excluding antibodies): 7,493...…….13,254...…..16,286...…..7,089...……...4,218...……..15,450
Cases...……….......….……………….. 810...……….1,018...………..880...…….733...………...664...…………..952
Hospitalizations...……………….. 108...…………...43.........……..24...…......74...………….132...…………….89
ICU...………………….…………..……... 15...…………….8...…………….5...………..9...…………...22...…………….19
Deaths...……………...…………...…... 43......………...28...…...……….5...……...43......……...….35......………….46
LA County reports 2,129 daily new coronavirus cases, highest number since beginning of pandemic
Los Angeles County Wednesday reported 2,129 new coronavirus cases and 34 additional deaths, bringing the totals to 77,189 cases and 2,991 deaths.
I think distance is the biggest thing. Inside of 6ft for more than 5 minutes puts you in a much more vulnerable position.WowLA County reports 2,129 daily new coronavirus cases, highest number since beginning of pandemic
Los Angeles County Wednesday reported 2,129 new coronavirus cases and 34 additional deaths, bringing the totals to 77,189 cases and 2,991 deaths.www.foxla.com
Looks like 600+ were attributed to a backlog from a hospital, though, and we have to keep in mind that LA County’s population is nearly that of Georgia and North Carolina. So it’s not really that much worse than we’ve been seeing around here lately.WowLA County reports 2,129 daily new coronavirus cases, highest number since beginning of pandemic
Los Angeles County Wednesday reported 2,129 new coronavirus cases and 34 additional deaths, bringing the totals to 77,189 cases and 2,991 deaths.
LithiaWx
Member
I’ve been in Ormond beach, fl all week. No social distancing going on, not much mask wearing.
NoSnowATL
Member
Beautiful place
LithiaWx
Member
been catching some beautiful sea trout this week.
Mexico reports 4,930 new cases and 730 new deaths.
Brazil reports 31,475 new cases and 1,209 new deaths.
ghost1
Member
From a Dr. in Bham on herd immunity
David B Wilhelm
10 hrs ·
Herd Immunity: How do we get there? What will be the cost?
Obviously we want to reach Herd Immunity to stop this pandemic virus, but recently I’ve seen people chirping in favor of naturally occurring Herd Immunity, downplaying social distancing, even some areas hosting COVID parties to increase infections and expedite the process. Unfortunately this is done without a thorough understanding of what may occur along the way. As the old saying goes, be careful what you ask for… because you just might get it.
To begin, let’s define what Herd Immunity actually means. The easy explanation is that Herd Immunity results when the number of immune individuals in a society reaches a point where a disease can no longer exist. Once enough people are immune, the pathogen (SARS-CoV 2 in this case) no longer passes easily from one person to the next, so infections will slow and eventually stop.
Now you’re probably thinking, “If only we had a formula to calculate how many people need to have immunity to accomplish actual Herd Immunity!” And if you were indeed thinking that, then I have good news! There is a formula! If we calculate 1 – 1/R0 we can obtain just such a number!
So what is R0? (Pronounced “R naught”) Well, R0 is a tricky one. Simply stated, R0 represents the number of people who will become infected from 1 person who has the virus. R0 however is not a static measure, it’s constantly changing depending on mitigating factors such as social distancing and wearing face coverings. Measles for example is very contagious and has an R0 of about 15-18, meaning every person who gets the measles will infect 15-18 other people. For SARS-CoV-2 the R0 value, in a non-immune population and without any mitigating factors, is somewhere between 2-3. I’ll simply assign it the average of 2.5 for purposes of our discussion. Now stay with me.
If we plug 2.5 into our Herd Immunity equation of 1-1/R0… through the magic of math we arrive at the value of 60%. This means if we reach the point where 60% of the US population is immune we’ll achieve the goal of Herd Immunity.
So this 60% can be reached by one of 2 ways. One way is through an effective vaccine, and we’re hopeful this happens sooner rather than later. The other way is through infected individuals who survive and produce antibodies… the very scary thing some of you have been quite vocally advocating. You still with me? Good, the punch line is coming.
Now, for the take home point of this discussion. Those of you who are convinced we need to reach immunity the old fashioned way… through infections… well, there’s a problem with your plan. And it’s a big one. You see, the population of the USA is about 330 million. That means we’d need almost 200 million people to become infected and survive the COVID-19 infection to reach Herd Immunity… about 100 times more infections than we have had up to this point. With a conservative death rate of 1% (the actual number may be higher) that means we are going to see 2 million people die of this virus before Herd Immunity is reached in this manner. Current deaths are at about 120 thousand… so 2 million… well, that’s a lot more.
The other option is to work to lower the R0 to below 1 through mitigation efforts of continued social distancing, hand washing, and wearing face coverings until we have an effective vaccine. This will not only reduce the strain on our medical system, it can literally save hundreds of thousands of lives. I know many of you don’t want to hear it, but the science doesn’t change just because you don’t believe it or don’t like it.
Infections, hospitalizations, and ICU bed occupancy are soaring in many states. Increased death rates will follow. To make matters worse, misinformation regarding this infection, social distancing, and mask usage is at an all-time high. If we don’t all pay attention and take the steps we need to take we could see more shut downs of business, schools, sporting events, more exhausting of medical resources, and more death.
So you can continue to stubbornly argue against doing what needs to be done or you can choose to be part of the solution.
Either way be careful what you ask for. Because you just might get it.
David B Wilhelm MD
David B Wilhelm
10 hrs ·
Herd Immunity: How do we get there? What will be the cost?
Obviously we want to reach Herd Immunity to stop this pandemic virus, but recently I’ve seen people chirping in favor of naturally occurring Herd Immunity, downplaying social distancing, even some areas hosting COVID parties to increase infections and expedite the process. Unfortunately this is done without a thorough understanding of what may occur along the way. As the old saying goes, be careful what you ask for… because you just might get it.
To begin, let’s define what Herd Immunity actually means. The easy explanation is that Herd Immunity results when the number of immune individuals in a society reaches a point where a disease can no longer exist. Once enough people are immune, the pathogen (SARS-CoV 2 in this case) no longer passes easily from one person to the next, so infections will slow and eventually stop.
Now you’re probably thinking, “If only we had a formula to calculate how many people need to have immunity to accomplish actual Herd Immunity!” And if you were indeed thinking that, then I have good news! There is a formula! If we calculate 1 – 1/R0 we can obtain just such a number!
So what is R0? (Pronounced “R naught”) Well, R0 is a tricky one. Simply stated, R0 represents the number of people who will become infected from 1 person who has the virus. R0 however is not a static measure, it’s constantly changing depending on mitigating factors such as social distancing and wearing face coverings. Measles for example is very contagious and has an R0 of about 15-18, meaning every person who gets the measles will infect 15-18 other people. For SARS-CoV-2 the R0 value, in a non-immune population and without any mitigating factors, is somewhere between 2-3. I’ll simply assign it the average of 2.5 for purposes of our discussion. Now stay with me.
If we plug 2.5 into our Herd Immunity equation of 1-1/R0… through the magic of math we arrive at the value of 60%. This means if we reach the point where 60% of the US population is immune we’ll achieve the goal of Herd Immunity.
So this 60% can be reached by one of 2 ways. One way is through an effective vaccine, and we’re hopeful this happens sooner rather than later. The other way is through infected individuals who survive and produce antibodies… the very scary thing some of you have been quite vocally advocating. You still with me? Good, the punch line is coming.
Now, for the take home point of this discussion. Those of you who are convinced we need to reach immunity the old fashioned way… through infections… well, there’s a problem with your plan. And it’s a big one. You see, the population of the USA is about 330 million. That means we’d need almost 200 million people to become infected and survive the COVID-19 infection to reach Herd Immunity… about 100 times more infections than we have had up to this point. With a conservative death rate of 1% (the actual number may be higher) that means we are going to see 2 million people die of this virus before Herd Immunity is reached in this manner. Current deaths are at about 120 thousand… so 2 million… well, that’s a lot more.
The other option is to work to lower the R0 to below 1 through mitigation efforts of continued social distancing, hand washing, and wearing face coverings until we have an effective vaccine. This will not only reduce the strain on our medical system, it can literally save hundreds of thousands of lives. I know many of you don’t want to hear it, but the science doesn’t change just because you don’t believe it or don’t like it.
Infections, hospitalizations, and ICU bed occupancy are soaring in many states. Increased death rates will follow. To make matters worse, misinformation regarding this infection, social distancing, and mask usage is at an all-time high. If we don’t all pay attention and take the steps we need to take we could see more shut downs of business, schools, sporting events, more exhausting of medical resources, and more death.
So you can continue to stubbornly argue against doing what needs to be done or you can choose to be part of the solution.
Either way be careful what you ask for. Because you just might get it.
David B Wilhelm MD
Florida reports 3,207 new cases and 40 new deaths.
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