While I don’t necessarily expect phase 3 at the end of June at this point and NC truly does seem to be at nearly a flatline, I think the national picture is a little better than it appears. Testing has increased a lot compared to before, which yields more cases, and there’s considerable hot spot testing that’s going on. The positive rate has decreased substantially from a month or two ago, when we likely had significantly more actual cases. We just weren’t catching them. The number of fatalities continues to decline.
That being said, I do think we are in somewhat of a plateau here locally (and the same is true for a lot of states, and in some it truly is getting worse...it’s a big country), so I’m not too hopeful we actually see phase 3 this month, unless the economic pressure becomes overbearing.
There may be the potential that the current social unrest could cause issues in future weeks, though. I guess we’ll see. I’m hopeful it won’t as most of this activity is outside, which is “relatively” safe. However, given Coronavirus is no longer being talked about on the news much these days, I also expect people to stop taking social distancing as seriously, regardless of whether they’re involved in the protests or not.