• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

Status
Not open for further replies.
NCSNOW said:
Some of the states that skeptics were most worried about, including Florida and Georgia, haven’t seen the rise in total cases that some experts feared.

  • Florida’s new cases have actually declined by 14% compared to the previous week, and Georgia’s fell by 12%.
Heres the link to article.

High-risk states are seeing fewer new coronavirus cases
Sam Baker
Sam Baker
Click to expand...
Florida, with the "official" stats as of Noon yesterday (understanding that certain data is not included by the Governor's fiat) ...

Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 9.22.52 AM.png
 
Uncwmark said:
Germany's ministry of health announced today that R-value has fallen back below 1. There was an article posted in this thread yesterday from the BBC indicating that rise in numbers in Germany was due to a couple outbreaks at meat packing plants.

The reality is that until there's a vaccine, the virus is going to continue to spread. Period. A perpetual (12-month +) lock-down isn't realistic so we need to find happy medium. Folks (mainly media) seem to be actively rooting against places that have eased restrictions like Georgia, Florida, Germany, Sweden (never had lock-down), etc. seemingly so they can be proven "right" that reopening was a bad idea. I think we need to realize that we, as a society, are going to have to find a way to live life/co-exist with this virus prevalent for at least the short-term future.

Shouldn't we all be rooting FOR places that have re-opened to have relative "success" so they can pave the way for a successful reopening of other cities and countries around the world? Is that too much to ask? Probably so, given society's propensity for dissension these days...
Click to expand...

Rooting for success absolutely. Paying attention to reality on the ground also is a necessity. Theres no reason we shouldn't be picking every piece of data from nations that are ahead of us apart and analyzing it.
 
Just from a mathematics perspective there is a long long long way to go. Some one correct me on this but 328 million people in the US, 1.4 million confirmed cases, being generous lets say there are 2 million unconfirmed/asymptomatic cases, that leaves you with 324.6 million susceptible people or 99% of the population.
 
SD said:
Just from a mathematics perspective there is a long long long way to go. Some one correct me on this but 328 million people in the US, 1.4 million confirmed cases, being generous lets say there are 2 million unconfirmed/asymptomatic cases, that leaves you with 324.6 million susceptible people or 99% of the population.
Click to expand...
I think you're off on that. We have 1.4 million cases right now. You don't know how many have developed immunity from past exposure. That number could be way higher (like 70 million), especially if this has been making rounds since late December. Some areas are definitely gaining herd immunity now.
 
weatherfide said:
I would guess more like 100k to 300k. I think we are in inning 7 of 9. I like to be realistically optimistic!
Click to expand...

Although I don’t believe we’re anywhere near inning 7, I hope you’re right and I’m wrong. With it now over 80K and still not slowing down much even with all of the safety measures (would have been much higher now without these measures), I don’t see how the lower end of your range has any chance. At our current rate plus reopenings, aren’t we already headed to 100K within just a couple of weeks?
 
SD said:
Just from a mathematics perspective there is a long long long way to go. Some one correct me on this but 328 million people in the US, 1.4 million confirmed cases, being generous lets say there are 2 million unconfirmed/asymptomatic cases, that leaves you with 324.6 million susceptible people or 99% of the population.
Click to expand...

All the news articles I’ve read said there is likely are 5-10x as many cases as reported so that would mean 7 to 14 million. The problem is how do we know the asymptomatic rate which obviously isn’t constant. Is it 30% or 50% or like the the cases of the TN prison like 99%. I’ve also seen studies that suggest a large number of people may not be able to be infected.

In the end, who knows.
 
weatherfide said:
I think you're off on that. We have 1.4 million cases right now. You don't know how many have developed immunity from past exposure. That number could be way higher (like 70 million), especially if this has been making rounds since late December. Some areas are definitely gaining herd immunity now.
Click to expand...

Given the data from NYC and NY State, my guess for USA-wide antibodies is
“New York State is conducting an antibody testing survey to develop a baseline infection rate. The preliminary results of phase two show 14.9 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies. The preliminary results of phase one of the state's antibody testing survey released on April 23rd showed 13.9 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies.”

My guess for USA-wide as of today would be 5-10% at best. We can’t assume USA-side is at ~15% like NY.
 
Jon said:
Given the data from NYC and NY State, my guess for USA-wide antibodies is
“New York State is conducting an antibody testing survey to develop a baseline infection rate. The preliminary results of phase two show 14.9 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies. The preliminary results of phase one of the state's antibody testing survey released on April 23rd showed 13.9 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies.”

My guess for USA-wide as of today would be 5-10% at best. We can’t assume USA-side is at ~15% like NY.
Click to expand...
What % would we need for effective herd immunity? 60-70%?

Nvm I used the google machine to see that studies are saying 70%
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jon
weatherfide said:
I think you're off on that. We have 1.4 million cases right now. You don't know how many have developed immunity from past exposure. That number could be way higher (like 70 million), especially if this has been making rounds since late December. Some areas are definitely gaining herd immunity now.
Click to expand...
70 million would be nice and certainly mean that we are on a better road to herd immunity. Even then though if we need 70ish % to achieve effective herd immunity would need to see 50% more of the US infected.
 
I have a 6 month routine dental cleaning/exam scheduled for next week. My high risk and disabled bro lives in my house and I’m his primary caregiver. If it were you, would you postpone this dental appointment until it is safer knowing that you have had no recent problems with teeth or gums? I’ve never in my entire life put off a semiannual cleaning. As it is out of an abundance of caution, I hardly go anywhere other than walking in the evening in the non crowded park. Opinions appreciated!
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
I have a 6 month routine dental cleaning/exam scheduled for next week. My high risk and disabled bro lives in my house and I’m his primary caregiver. If it were you, would you postpone this dental appointment until it is safer knowing that you have had no recent problems with teeth or gums? As it is out of an abundance of caution, I hardly go anywhere other than walking in the evening in the non crowded park. Opinions appreciated!
Click to expand...
If it's just a routine cleaning, I would push it back.
 
GaWx said:
I have a 6 month routine dental cleaning/exam scheduled for next week. My high risk and disabled bro lives in my house and I’m his primary caregiver. If it were you, would you postpone this dental appointment until it is safer knowing that you have had no recent problems with teeth or gums? I’ve never in my entire life put off a semiannual cleaning. As it is out of an abundance of caution, I hardly go anywhere other than walking in the evening in the non crowded park. Opinions appreciated!
Click to expand...
No.
 
GaWx said:
I have a 6 month routine dental cleaning/exam scheduled for next week. My high risk and disabled bro lives in my house and I’m his primary caregiver. If it were you, would you postpone this dental appointment until it is safer knowing that you have had no recent problems with teeth or gums? I’ve never in my entire life put off a semiannual cleaning. As it is out of an abundance of caution, I hardly go anywhere other than walking in the evening in the non crowded park. Opinions appreciated!
Click to expand...
Yes, I would postpone. Wait it out for another 3 months, i'd say.
 
Two consecutive days now with 50 new cases in Forsyth County (N.C.) and hospitalizations have spiked into the ~530s. Don't know if the spike in Forsyth is still related to Tyson or if it represents community spread. Either way, not much positive today for NC.
 
GaWx said:
I have a 6 month routine dental cleaning/exam scheduled for next week. My high risk and disabled bro lives in my house and I’m his primary caregiver. If it were you, would you postpone this dental appointment until it is safer knowing that you have had no recent problems with teeth or gums? I’ve never in my entire life put off a semiannual cleaning. As it is out of an abundance of caution, I hardly go anywhere other than walking in the evening in the non crowded park. Opinions appreciated!
Click to expand...

I’d postpone...if you go every 6mo and this is your first miss, your teeth are probably in top shape. I go every 6mo too so I know how you feel about keeping your mouth healthy, it’s very important.

Another year or so, sure you’ll have more plaque and yeah they’ll have to scrape for a while, but it’s not the end of the world!

Longest I went was 1.5 years due to insurance issues and yeah it was gross but no cavities, they just had to sit there and scrape like hell...lol
 
Wilkes up to 261. Does not include private testing. I bet years from now Tyson may get sued for not disclosing all test results but idk.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top