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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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We really dont have a good grasp on what's happening in places like india,Brazil and Ecuador but we are seeing very troubling signs now in Japan. They may be the next country to slide into major trouble.

 
First major long care facility outbreak in Iredell County, NC reported today. Keeps spreading further out of Charlotte. No specifics told.
 
It's heading into late April and Beijing is still trying to cover up the truth. China should face every possible sanction after the worst of the pandemic has passed.

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Social distancing is actually an ancient idea. Let's learn from history. From its wiki: "Social distancing measures date back to at least the fifth century BCE. The Bible contains one of the earliest known references to the practice in the Book of Leviticus 13:46: 'And the leper in whom the plague is...he shall dwell alone; [outside] the camp shall his habitation be.'"

Social distancing was a big deal in the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-9. We should learn from it and not repeat the same mistakes. Again, from the wiki:

"In modern times, social distancing measures have been successfully implemented in several previous epidemics. In St. Louis, shortly after the first cases of influenza were detected in the city during the 1918 flu pandemic, authorities implemented school closures, bans on public gatherings and other social distancing interventions. The case fatality rates in St. Louis were much less than in Philadelphia, which despite having cases of influenza, allowed a mass parade to continue and did not introduce social distancing until more than two weeks after its first cases."

"During the influenza pandemic of 1918, Philadelphia saw its first cases of influenza on 17 September. The city continued with its planned parade and gathering of more than 200000 people and over the subsequent three days, the city's 31 hospitals became fully occupied. Over one week, 4500 people died. Social distancing measures were introduced on 3 October, on the orders of St. Louis physician Max C. Starkloff, more than two weeks after the first case. Unlike Philadelphia, St. Louis experienced its first cases of influenza on 5 October and the city took two days to implement several social distancing measures, including closing schools, theatres, and other places where people get together. It banned public gatherings, including funerals. The actions slowed the spread of influenza in St. Louis and a spike in cases and deaths, as had happened in Philadelphia, did not occur. The final death rate in St. Louis increased following a second wave of cases, but remained overall less than in other cities. Bootsma and Ferguson analyzed social distancing interventions in sixteen U.S. cities during the 1918 epidemic and found that time-limited interventions reduced total mortality only moderately (perhaps 10–30%), and that the impact was often very limited because the interventions were introduced too late and lifted too early. It was observed that several cities experienced a second epidemic peak after social distancing controls were lifted, because susceptible individuals who had been protected were now exposed."


"Passenger without mask being refused boarding of a streetcar (Seattle, Washington, 1918):"

 
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I fear what may happen in sub-Saharan Africa with the pandemic in the near future, given that such a large percentage of people there are immunocompromised to at least some extent. It's also interesting that India is able to spare hydroxychloroquine for export abroad.

 
Social distancing is actually an ancient idea. Let's learn from history. From its wiki: "Social distancing measures date back to at least the fifth century BCE. The Bible contains one of the earliest known references to the practice in the Book of Leviticus 13:46: 'And the leper in whom the plague is...he shall dwell alone; [outside] the camp shall his habitation be.'"

Social distancing was a big deal in the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-9. We should learn from it and not repeat the same mistakes. Again, from the wiki:

"In modern times, social distancing measures have been successfully implemented in several previous epidemics. In St. Louis, shortly after the first cases of influenza were detected in the city during the 1918 flu pandemic, authorities implemented school closures, bans on public gatherings and other social distancing interventions. The case fatality rates in St. Louis were much less than in Philadelphia, which despite having cases of influenza, allowed a mass parade to continue and did not introduce social distancing until more than two weeks after its first cases."

"During the influenza pandemic of 1918, Philadelphia saw its first cases of influenza on 17 September. The city continued with its planned parade and gathering of more than 200000 people and over the subsequent three days, the city's 31 hospitals became fully occupied. Over one week, 4500 people died. Social distancing measures were introduced on 3 October, on the orders of St. Louis physician Max C. Starkloff, more than two weeks after the first case. Unlike Philadelphia, St. Louis experienced its first cases of influenza on 5 October and the city took two days to implement several social distancing measures, including closing schools, theatres, and other places where people get together. It banned public gatherings, including funerals. The actions slowed the spread of influenza in St. Louis and a spike in cases and deaths, as had happened in Philadelphia, did not occur. The final death rate in St. Louis increased following a second wave of cases, but remained overall less than in other cities. Bootsma and Ferguson analyzed social distancing interventions in sixteen U.S. cities during the 1918 epidemic and found that time-limited interventions reduced total mortality only moderately (perhaps 10–30%), and that the impact was often very limited because the interventions were introduced too late and lifted too early. It was observed that several cities experienced a second epidemic peak after social distancing controls were lifted, because susceptible individuals who had been protected were now exposed."


"Passenger without mask being refused boarding of a streetcar (Seattle, Washington, 1918):"

What i find interesting is that St. Louis didn't implement social distancing measures when they found out Philly had 4,500 deaths. Philly had 4,500 deaths from Sept 17 to 24 and St Louis waited until Oct 3 to implement social distancing.
 
Is it possible we are getting false positives?

Because of how PCR tests are done, assuming that’s the best they used (nasopharyngeal swab), false positives almost never occur. There’s a non zero chance of one, but I want to say it’s in the realm of 1-4% and realistically closer to 1%. False positive would result in some kind of contamination as the test design is near perfect, if you have a positive it’s very likely it’s real.

So yeah, I doubt it.
 
Hopefully the world will unite in holding China - and the WHO - accountable for the coverup of the outbreak.

 
Look at the "flattening the curve" map animation. Is this really "flattening" or are most places on the downhill side of the infection curve? The confirmed cases number increases only as the testing increases and identifies cases that are already in progress? As you get into late March and early April, the cases start to decline quickly, all over the nation. The confirmed case number is not the metric to use to determine the actual threat of this virus. We aren't testing enough and we need to know the actual number of infections, not just confirmed cases.
 
Plenty more unfortunate and disastrous economic news to come; just wait till 1st qtr reporting and 2nd qtr to year end outlooks hit..

As more and more data is evaluated and studies are done it's unmistakable; the infection rates from the virus are orders of magnitude higher than what has been acknowledged to date thus the death rates are orders of magnitude lower..

 
The German government seems to believe they have the situation mostly under control now. They've been one of the least impacted countries in Europe since the pandemic began.

 
I saw an article the other day that 1/3 of people in a random sidewalk test were positive. That will go a long way towards building herd immunity sooner rather than later if thing is a rampant as it seems it might be. I don't see a way where a vaccine is done before this thing runs it's course one way or another.
 
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