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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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I’m a bit concerned the tail on the distribution may have a flatter slope than depicted on the Washington model a lot of us have been referencing. Europe’s experience seems to reflect this. Thus, the death toll may end up being higher than forecasted and we may be stuck with this even longer. Nate Silver had a discussion about this today and it seems convincing, but we’ll see how it develops.

Also, it seems likely we (and the rest of the world) are undercounting the death count to a significant degree (as much as by a factor of 2, possibly?), although that’s baked in so it doesn’t change our future prospects much.

I still remain hopeful for an opening at the end of May. I’m not sure how much longer we can go on than that.
 
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superjames1992 said:
I’m a bit concerned the tail on the distribution may have a flatter slope than depicted on the Washington model a lot of us have been referencing. Europe’s experience seems to reflect this. Thus, the death toll may end up being higher than forecasted and we may be stuck with this even longer. Nate Silver had a discussion about this today and it seems convincing, but we’ll see how it develops.

Also, it seems likely we (and the rest of the world) are undercounting the death count to a significant degree (as much as by a factor of 2, possibly?), although that’s baked in so it doesn’t change our future prospects much.

I still remain hopeful for an opening at the end of May. I’m not sure how much longer we can go on than that.
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There's al 100% chance that we, but mostly the rest of the world, is undercounting by a significant amount. Japan and Sweden for instance have adopted a herd immunity strategy for fighting coronavirus, and both have decided to restrict testing policies to falsely demonstrate to the world that the policy works.

For instance, Japan only tests the elderly people showing a fever for four straight days, and there have been reports showing that they don't even test some of those people. They have only tested 7% of the people that South Korea has tested, despite having more than double. Japan doesn't even confirm cases of deaths that were likely caused with people having covid-19 symptoms.
https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...tokyo-olympics-postponement/story?id=70041840

Additionally, Sweden isn't providing tests for many of its citizens, and only confirms cases through laboratory tests. They are refusing to ask people that want the test even when they have symptoms.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/gabrie...us-strategy-is-it-a-big-mistake/#d7a4af3228a2

In contrast to Japan and Sweden, some countries aren't testing, or are restricting tests, for the Covid-19 due to the short-supply, especially in the European region. Some places are testing, but aren't confirming cases until a laboratory confirms the case, or failing to test patients post-mortem that may have died in their homes. For example, a country like Italy demonstrated that post-mortem tests picked up a significant amount of Covid-19 deaths, explaining one of the reasons the death rate is so much more significant than in Germany.
www.nbcnews.com

Why are so few Germans dying from the coronavirus? Experts wonder

"I would be happy if we can come back in two months' time and still be able to talk about what Germany did right," one expert said.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
www.bloomberg.com

We May Be Underestimating the Coronavirus Death Toll

Many people believe we're under-counting the Covid-19 infection rate, but Italian data suggest we may be getting the death numbers wrong too.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Looking like this whole thing started in a Chinese Laboratory after all. Called it from the beginning. I even got backlash for saying it. This is my victory lap

??‍♂️ ??‍♂️ ??‍♂️ ??‍♂️ ?
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Well I got strangers advice I’m mentally sick ????. This virus is definitely showing us what matters!

#Toilet paper!!!!!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Looking like this whole thing started in a Chinese Laboratory after all. Called it from the beginning. I even got backlash for saying it. This is my victory lap

??‍♂️ ??‍♂️ ??‍♂️ ??‍♂️ ?
Click to expand...

Any scientific backing and data to support this. I believe it's possible to have happened but we need to be sure.
 
Yeah I'm pretty sure that there are some that think that the Wuhan wet market was actually not the origination point of this virus, not that there isn't problems with wet markets. I would not consider this to be confirmation, in fact, it would not surprise me if it's years before anything gets confirmed. Of course, in those years, it would not surprise me if we see hundreds of thousands have COVID-19 antibodies and for the CFR to drop...
 
Shaggy said:
Any scientific backing and data to support this. I believe it's possible to have happened but we need to be sure.
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You don't need data to support the obvious.... Remember Occam's razor..... The simplest solution is that it came from the research lab in Wuhan.
 
If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it's a duck. The fact that a few belittled anybody who said this could've possibly escaped from a laboratory just goes to show..

Rocks and glass houses; gotta love it...
 
LetItSnow said:
If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it's a duck. The fact that a few belittled anybody who said this could've possibly escaped from a laboratory just goes to show..

Rocks and glass houses; gotta love it...
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I think the debate early on was whether or not it was a bioweapon. From what it sounds like, yes it came from a lab but it wasn't a bioweapon deployment like many thought early on.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think the debate early on was whether or not it was a bioweapon. From what it sounds like, yes it came from a lab but it wasn't a bioweapon deployment like many thought early on.
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We do not know for sure at this point. It totally could have been. Could have been a population control measure that got out of hand. We just dont know yet, but we will.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think the debate early on was whether or not it was a bioweapon. From what it sounds like, yes it came from a lab but it wasn't a bioweapon deployment like many thought early on.
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Maybe a small part however I don't remember a debate which is a nice word, I remember belittling of anybody who said this could've escaped from a laboratory. It was the wet market, it was the wet market; yada, yada, yada...

Given the jury is still out wouldn't be surprised there was some bio-engineering involved however that's sheer speculation at this point; the duck analogy applies..
 
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