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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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ghost1 said:
Someone smarter than me help me figure this out. I've seen in the media that the quoted mortality rate for COVID ranges from about 1.5% to 4.0% depending on the source. I noticed as of this evening there have been a little over 430,000 cases in the U.S. Out of those ~430,000, 37,092 have been resolved. Of the 37,092 that have been resolved... 22,356 have recovered and 14,736 have died. That is a 40% mortality rate for the resolved cases. 393,118 are still ongoing and unresolved. This is far greater than the 1.5-4.0% mortality rate that is constantly being tossed about. What am I missing here?
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Apple pie can be sliced many ways ... it is still apple pie ...

430,000 cases; 14,736 have died. That's .034.
 
pcbjr said:
Apple pie can be sliced many ways ... it is still apple pie ...

430,000 cases; 14,736 have died. That's .034.
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But that is bad statistical analysis... for that to be true and the mortality rate to end up being 3.4%... that means that of the 390,000 outstanding unresolved cases, every one of them will have to survive and there will be no more deaths.

Compare that to baseball. If we had the baseball season on going and a player was batting .400 in his first 50 at bats... you wouldn't say his batting average is .0034 because he has 450 at bats yet to be taken for the rest of the season and he will never get another hit in any of them
 
ghost1 said:
But that is bad statistical analysis... for that to be true and the mortality rate to end up being 3.4%... that means that of the 390,000 outstanding unresolved cases, every one of them will have to survive and there will be no more deaths.

Compare that to baseball. If we had the baseball season on going and a player was batting .400 in his first 50 at bats... you wouldn't say his batting average is .0034 because he has 450 at bats yet to be taken for the rest of the season and he will never get another hit in any of them
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assume the same rate for the remainder and the batting average at the end of the season would be the same ...
 
ghost1 said:
Someone smarter than me help me figure this out. I've seen in the media that the quoted mortality rate for COVID ranges from about 1.5% to 4.0% depending on the source. I noticed as of this evening there have been a little over 430,000 cases in the U.S. Out of those ~430,000, 37,092 have been resolved. Of the 37,092 that have been resolved... 22,356 have recovered and 14,736 have died. That is a 40% mortality rate for the resolved cases. 393,118 are still ongoing and unresolved. This is far greater than the 1.5-4.0% mortality rate that is constantly being tossed about. What am I missing here?
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It takes longer to recover than to die.
 
pcbjr said:
assume the same rate for the remainder and the batting average at the end of the season would be the same ...
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If you are getting 4 hits for every 10 at bats and continue that for the rest of the season, you end up batting .400 not .0034
 
ghost1 said:
But that is bad statistical analysis... for that to be true and the mortality rate to end up being 3.4%... that means that of the 390,000 outstanding unresolved cases, every one of them will have to survive and there will be no more deaths.

Compare that to baseball. If we had the baseball season on going and a player was batting .400 in his first 50 at bats... you wouldn't say his batting average is .0034 because he has 450 at bats yet to be taken for the rest of the season and he will never get another hit in any of them
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You are only counted recovered if you pass two negative Covid tests and/or released from the hospital. The recovery stat will not count those who recover at home.
 
Arcc said:
You are only counted recovered if you pass two negative Covid tests and/or released from the hospital. The recovery stat will not count those who recover at home.
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Now that is something I haven't thought of. That could be it. Where did you see this info? Do you have a link or a source? Thanks...
 
ghost1 said:
Now that is something I haven't thought of. That could be it. Where did you see this info? Do you have a link or a source? Thanks...
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Just what I've read Drs and nurses say on other forums mostly. One of them said recoveries will be far under reported due to them sending people home who do not need hospitalization. The two test thing I've read many times but I cannot remember where I read it.
 
Arcc said:
Just what I've read Drs and nurses say on other forums mostly. One of them said recoveries will be far under reported due to them sending people home who do not need hospitalization. The two test thing I've read many times but I cannot remember where I read it.
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Yeah that's kind of weird. If you have a confirmed case, then you only have 2 potential outcomes. How could you claim to or try to produce accurate information, if you have a large quantity of confirmed cases with no resolution?

I can understand how there are lots of untested people who have the virus who will never be counted in the official statistics. I can also understand how there are likely many untested people who have died from the virus who will never be counted in the official statistics.

But I don't understand the purpose of counting a confirmed case in the official numbers yet attaching no resolution to it.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah that's kind of weird. If you have a confirmed case, then you only have 2 potential outcomes. How could you claim to or try to produce accurate information, if you have a large quantity of confirmed cases with no resolution?

I can understand how there are lots of untested people who have the virus who will never be counted in the official statistics. I can also understand how there are likely many untested people who have died from the virus who will never be counted in the official statistics.

But I don't understand the purpose of counting a confirmed case in the official numbers yet attaching no resolution to it.
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I dont either, you would think it wouldnt be hard to make a phone call so you can check that box.

 
Keep in mind each country has different rules around what constitutes a "recovery", so you really can't compare one country to another.
 
So don't quarantine for 14 days and as long as you're asymptomatic you can go to work with proper precautions?

It all just gets more interesting and more interesting; we'll see what time tells indeed..

MSN

www.msn.com
 
Arcc said:
Well this study will prove to be interesting.

www.ksbw.com

New California antibody study could point to possible herd immunity to COVID-19

The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.
www.ksbw.com www.ksbw.com
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Not sure what they'll find out of this given the measures they put in place earlier on limited the exposure. It would be bad if very few people had the antibodies for the virus.
 
ghost1 said:
Someone smarter than me help me figure this out. I've seen in the media that the quoted mortality rate for COVID ranges from about 1.5% to 4.0% depending on the source. I noticed as of this evening there have been a little over 430,000 cases in the U.S. Out of those ~430,000, 37,092 have been resolved. Of the 37,092 that have been resolved... 22,356 have recovered and 14,736 have died. That is a 40% mortality rate for the resolved cases. 393,118 are still ongoing and unresolved. This is far greater than the 1.5-4.0% mortality rate that is constantly being tossed about. What am I missing here?
Click to expand...

When all is said and done and we have a true picture of the infection rate of COVID-19, I believe the actual mortality rate is going to be about .5% (half of one percent) or lower. Still five times lethal than the seasonal flu, but way, way less than the current 1% - 4% (or 40% :rolleyes:) that the numbers would lead you to believe. Remember, that 430,000 number are confirmed cases, there's likely to be MILLIONS of additional folks who contracted and were either asymptomatic and had no idea they had it or had a very mild case and never got tested, thus aren't counted as an 'official' case.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not sure what they'll find out of this given the measures they put in place earlier on limited the exposure. It would be bad if very few people had the antibodies for the virus.
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Read carefully. The researchers are looking for evidence that the virus was spreading back in November and early December. The antibody testing is designed to discover the true distribution of the virus. If the hypothesis is true, we can rescind all shelter in place and go back to work in areas that have achieved herd immunity. Also, mandated vaccines will be entirely unnecessary.
 
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