• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Will Rossman said:
I personally can't stand people saying stuff like, "Oh, but look at annual flu deaths!". It's apples to oranges, people. You're talking about comparing a new virus that is just now beginning to make it's debut in the general population with a long timer illness that has afflicted the people for decades and is now well established? I think a more accurate comparison would be to look at the worst daily death toll from the flu this past season compared with the worst day of COVID-19. And even here, it has to be stressed that this new virus hasn't yet realized it's full devastating potential. Hopefully our current distancing measures can still mitigate that. It seems that those who make such assertions are trying to advocate to "return everything to normal life". But if we do that, then we'll really see the brutal effects of the virus.
Click to expand...
Also, think about what flu deaths, hospitalizations etc would be without a vaccine
 
Not meant to minimize what we're going through..

Interesting statistics from the CDC going back to 2013 of overall deaths and deaths related to pneumonia. One hypothesis is the "lock downs" have lowered the overall deaths in the country due to less automobile accidents; work related deaths; and accidental deaths; approximately 40,000 fewer people have died the 1st 12 weeks of the year in the country as compared to the 2013 - 2019 average.

Of note is the drop off in pneumonia related deaths or at least pneumonia related deaths as they're reported; 10,000 fewer pneumonia associated deaths for the 1st 12 weeks of 2020 compared to the 2013 to 2019 average.

Could it be the pneumonia deaths that would've happened to an at risk population have been replaced by Corona related deaths; i.e. the population most susceptible to pneumonia are now being adversely affected by Corona (the at risk group really is the same?)

The dramatic drop off in all deaths compared to the 2013 to 2019 average for the last 2 weeks ending March 21st would support the hypothesis "lock downs" have actually contributed greatly to the decrease.

1586137072114.png
 
This week is going to be horrific. All of those cases we added last week are coming home to roost. I fear we see 10-30k dead just this week in the US.

weekend numbers are not something I’m taking at face value. Pretty sure we see the catch up from this weekend tomorrow.
 
Arcc said:
The old data IHME prediction for April 5th for AL, 46 deaths with a lo-hi range of 36-54, actual deaths for today, 1.
Click to expand...

NY, LA, MI are more than making up for the areas missing low. Also it could be that the AL peak comes later and hit harder than expected. I’m glad it seems so far AL isn’t following the projections for that state but man it’s a bit early still. This nightmare has just begun. I hope the WA model busts bigly low but I think it ends up busting high in the end. I think the timing is off in some areas not the end result.
 
Local Sams this morning.
LithiaWx said:
This week is going to be horrific. All of those cases we added last week are coming home to roost. I fear we see 10-30k dead just this week in the US.

weekend numbers are not something I’m taking at face value. Pretty sure we see the catch up from this weekend tomorrow.
Click to expand...
thats what I’m afraid of.
 
LithiaWx said:
This week is going to be horrific. All of those cases we added last week are coming home to roost. I fear we see 10-30k dead just this week in the US.

weekend numbers are not something I’m taking at face value. Pretty sure we see the catch up from this weekend tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the next week or two (at least) are going to be bad. That's baked in at this point. We're going to be well above 1,000 cases per day, probably exceeding 2,000 at some point (and maybe even higher).

Certainly, if it really gets out of control, we will see a lot more deaths than that eventually, but there does seem to be some evidence of the curve starting to flatten in the USA, so the measures that have been taken seem to be having the desired effect (even if they aren't as restrictive as might be ideal).
 
Model was updated today!

covid19.healthdata.org

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org covid19.healthdata.org


Looks like Covid-19 deaths peak in NC in 9 days (vs 16 days yesterday) and the daily deaths drop to ~3 April 29th (was June 4th)...major update and saved a months time. Social distancing is working.

Also warmer weather could be helping. Deaths would lag benefits of warmer weather, and since testing isn’t available, hospitalizations as well.

My friends that work in hospitals around the state mention that it’s actually slow right now, and it’s only packed and crazy at big city hospitals such as NYC.
 
Jon said:
Model was updated today!

covid19.healthdata.org

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org covid19.healthdata.org


Looks like Covid-19 deaths peak in NC in 9 days (vs 16 days yesterday) and the daily deaths drop to ~3 April 29th (was June 4th)...major update and saved a months time. Social distancing is working.

Also warmer weather could be helping. Deaths would lag benefits of warmer weather, and since testing isn’t available, hospitalizations as well.

My friends that work in hospitals around the state mention that it’s actually slow right now, and it’s only packed and crazy at big city hospitals such as NYC.
Click to expand...

Much better for AL, yet still over counted. Instead of adding the deaths slowly, they added 20 deaths in one day which really bumped their total. Taking that into account, AL looks excellent at this point. Maybe the proudest I’ve been of my state in a while!

Edit: Looking at MS, that is much closer to what AL is looking right now as far as tracking. They are predicting 237 deaths for MS with no where close to overrunning hospitals.
 
Last edited:
Jon said:
Model was updated today!

covid19.healthdata.org

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org covid19.healthdata.org


Looks like Covid-19 deaths peak in NC in 9 days (vs 16 days yesterday) and the daily deaths drop to ~3 April 29th (was June 4th)...major update and saved a months time. Social distancing is working.

Also warmer weather could be helping. Deaths would lag benefits of warmer weather, and since testing isn’t available, hospitalizations as well.

My friends that work in hospitals around the state mention that it’s actually slow right now, and it’s only packed and crazy at big city hospitals such as NYC.
Click to expand...
I hope it is right. It still as a lot of deaths in Georgia but the peak is sooner and the hospital peak is much less steep than it was.
 
Great news to see we are only 10 days from the peak and then it goes down sharply after that. I think May will be a much better month.
 
For those of you in Georgia, the GDOL is now saying that self-employed independent contractors can apply for unemployment benefits available under the stimulus bill by April 10th (they've been working to incorporate the bill's package of expanded benefits into their system):

1586179424102.png
dol.georgia.gov

GDOL COVID-19 Information

Georgia Department of Labor information regarding COVID-19 for Employers and Individuals.
dol.georgia.gov dol.georgia.gov
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top