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Misc Cold Season Complaining

Even though we're setting up for a colder pattern, I think you can tell there really isn't a real threat of snow outside the mountains yet, because we haven't seen many GEFS or EPS snowfall clown maps posted.
 
packfan98 said:
I've seen 14.605 possibilities and only 1 path to success. I give to you lucky ensemble #13 from the 6z GEFS:
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I'm going to sound like a geek, but this season so far has been a lot like the scene in The Avengers - End Game where Dr. Strange fast-forwards to see all of the possible outcomes and finds only a handful out of millions that result in victory.
 
SnowNiner said:
Even though we're setting up for a colder pattern, I think you can tell there really isn't a real threat of snow outside the mountains yet, because we haven't seen many GEFS or EPS snowfall clown maps posted.
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Honestly, it's way too early. If this pattern repeats at the first of January, I'd expect more chances - but still probably going to miss.
 
SnowNiner said:
Even though we're setting up for a colder pattern, I think you can tell there really isn't a real threat of snow outside the mountains yet, because we haven't seen many GEFS or EPS snowfall clown maps posted.
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That usually means there isn't a threat when you get those outside of about D5-6. The old mirage. I'm rooting for no snow at all to show up on any modeling in the extended. (I'm not joking either haha).
 
With a few cooler days coming up we may be less then 5 degrees above normal for December at least.
 
Regardless of snow or not these temps are a win...any time we get highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's it's a gift. Next summer we going be avg 100F in July-Aug so I appreciate these periods.

ecmwf-ensemble-KRDU-daily_tmin_tmax-2665600.png


And just a reminder of how bad last winter was...

cd107.15.181.206.331.8.45.55.prcp.png
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
I don’t know anymore, we went from almost teens to 30 now for lows and mid 30s for highs to 50 for a high, every run it gets 1-2 degrees warmer. Gonna be close.
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It likes by the time we get to verification, it will be close if KATL gets a freeze or not. The only chance would be the cold air advection behind the front.
 
J.C. said:
It likes by the time we get to verification, it will be close if KATL gets a freeze or not. The only chance would be the cold air advection behind the front.
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Depends on which model you run with, for Saturday, 11/30 (last chance for November), GFS says 39 for KATL, Icon, 27, NAM 33, RDPS 27, this is off the 12Z 11/27/2024 runs. I always go with the highest one, so no freeze for ATL in November for 2024!
 
jrips27 said:
I do hope we can get some fantasy storms the next few days. Always fun to be with family/friends around Thanksgiving/Christmas and you check the forum and it’s blowing up with clown maps haha
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That's the real threat index. OPI = Overnight Page Index. How many pages of the thread were added over night. <2 = Nothing on the horizon. 3-5 = something promising is showing up. 6-10 = legit threat. 10+ = game on, 20% chance of snow. LOL.
 
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