18z RGEM was bullish again, 18z nam had a small area, so far the gfs and euro don't have a lot going on
Well that would do it for us3k had a lot of precip developing with temps 33-35 and dews in the low 20s
This is the type of forecast that separates the men from the boys. This could very easily result in several hours of light freezing rain / drizzle on the northwest side that as we all know could lead to black ice on bridges and overpasses and resultant traffic catastrophe on Christmas Eve.This was clipped out of RAH's afternoon discussion:
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 259 PM Saturday...
As of Monday morning, high pressure is forecast to be sitting over
New York with a ridge extending southwest into the Carolinas. A weak
shortwave in the upper level flow should force a weak surface low to
develop off the Florida coast Monday evening. The low should reach
its closest point to central North Carolina Tuesday afternoon off
the coast of Wilmington and move northeast offshore after that.
There is a bit of uncertainty as to how far northwest the
precipitation will extend, and at this point, have kept a dry
forecast Monday night but introduced a slight chance of pops across
southeastern counties Tuesday. Cannot rule out the potential that
precipitation could start off very briefly as freezing rain, as
soundings show a thick layer of above freezing air above the
surface, but confidence is too low to include freezing rain in the
forecast at this time; the precipitation is primarily expected to
fall as rain.
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They're at least mentioning it now.
Didn't the RGEM nail the last minor event this month?The RGEM is colder but brings less precip NW.
The RGEM is usually garbage with ZR events. It always overestimates the coldDidn't the RGEM nail the last minor event this month?
Yep in these setups precip almost always earlier then progged and hi res models are catching up to that. Gonna catch some folks off guardVery likely this event is going to produce some travel hazards on Christmas Eve morning for early shoppers.
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We're getting there. And the NAM just scored an impressive win over most other short-range guidance up in the northeast with this recent snow event there also. That fact, plus various other guidance hinting at this is giving me confidence we're at least going to see a period of some low-end impactful FZDZ along and west of I-95.We should be in the NAM's wheelhouse about now right?
The NAM in my opinion is probably one of if not the best short range models out there. It is one of the first this weather hobbyist looks at when storms get within 72 hours or so. This event might end up making some of the bridges and overpasses a little dicey in some areas.We're getting there. And the NAM just scored an impressive win over most other short-range guidance up in the northeast with this recent snow event there also. That fact, plus various other guidance hinting at this is giving me confidence we're at least going to see a period of some low-end impactful FZDZ along and west of I-95.
Right now the locals aren’t mentioning anything other than some light rain towards the coast. I think they should first let the public know it might get wet before they mention ice.If QPF totals increase on some of the later model runs I would not be shocked if some of the local National Weather Services issued some advisories for this system. It would better to do that than for them to get caught with their pants down.
If QPF totals increase on some of the later model runs I would not be shocked if some of the local National Weather Services issued some advisories for this system. It would better to do that than for them to get caught with their pants down.
Low pressure will develop off the southeastern United States coast
Doesn't the HRRR have a warm bias? The 00z HRRR is legit colder than the 3k NAM, which is a first.
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Not having a closer look further at the HRRR, that's probably because it depicts clear skies in the sub-freezing areas.Doesn't the HRRR have a warm bias? The 00z HRRR is legit colder than the 3k NAM, which is a first.
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