RDPS had "better" totals late yesterday but has upped its totals from the past run.
12z total freezing rain:
12z total freezing rain:
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Wintry Christmas Eve NC Freezing Rain?
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I’m dreaming of a dark Christmas….
We're getting there. And the NAM just scored an impressive win over most other short-range guidance up in the northeast with this recent snow event there also. That fact, plus various other guidance hinting at this is giving me confidence we're at least going to see a period of some low-end impactful FZDZ along and west of I-95.
weather bubba
Member
The NAM in my opinion is probably one of if not the best short range models out there. It is one of the first this weather hobbyist looks at when storms get within 72 hours or so. This event might end up making some of the bridges and overpasses a little dicey in some areas.
packfan98
Moderator
This is dangerously close. 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Per usual for CAD, we’ve been trending upwards as t-0 approaches.
I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into model QPF or precip output with this. Legit freezing drizzle at the very least in the Piedmont, with earlier onset and greater intensity.
Need to hit our quota of 2 ZR events per winter
I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into model QPF or precip output with this. Legit freezing drizzle at the very least in the Piedmont, with earlier onset and greater intensity.
Need to hit our quota of 2 ZR events per winter
weather bubba
Member
If QPF totals increase on some of the later model runs I would not be shocked if some of the local National Weather Services issued some advisories for this system. It would better to do that than for them to get caught with their pants down.
Avalanche
Member
Right now the locals aren’t mentioning anything other than some light rain towards the coast. I think they should first let the public know it might get wet before they mention ice.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A freezing rain advisory is probably warranted already for counties near-west of Raleigh. Takes basically no ice at all to cause issues
RAH has added freezing rain to my grid forecast:
RAH's afternoon short term discussion:
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...
On Monday morning, high pressure will be centered over New York with
a ridge extending southwest through the Carolinas into Georgia. The
high will move offshore during the day as low pressure moves into
the Great Lakes. The most impactful weather during this time period
will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning. By 00Z Tuesday, a
weak (1024 mb) surface low will start spinning up along the
northeastern coast of Florida. This low will likely be closest to
the forecast area around 1019 mb off Wilmington early Tuesday
afternoon before moving off to the northeast. With the cold high
pressure extending south from New England into the Carolinas Monday,
there will be a good amount of cold air in place locally that should
result in evaporational cooling and could result in precipitation
Monday night initially beginning as something other than rain.
Considering how warm temperatures will be above the surface, snow
will not be a possible precipitation type with this storm. With how
shallow the below-freezing layer will be, precipitation types during
this time period will either be rain or freezing rain; sleet should
also not be a possibility. The GFS continues to be a wet outlier
compared to other models. The two biggest uncertainties with the
forecast will be the spatial extent of the freezing rain and how
much precipitation falls before any freezing rain changes over to
liquid rain. The most likely period for freezing precipitation will
be between midnight and 10am Tuesday. By the afternoon, the low will
be moving to the east and precipitation will be decreasing in
coverage, likely coming to an end by sunset. The primary change with
this forecast package was to expand the chance of precipitation
northwest, grazing portions of the Triad, and along the same lines,
expanding the area that has a chance of freezing rain. While pops
were increased, the only area with likely pops is southern Sampson
County, and the temperatures in that area should remain above
freezing, so all of that precipitation would fall as rain.
As for temperatures, Monday`s highs should be within a few degrees
of today`s values, in the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Values will drop
quickly Monday evening with clear skies before bottoming out around
midnight as cloud cover moves in from the south. temperatures will
then remain steady or slightly increase through the rest of the
night before following a typical diurnal curve Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Monday night`s lows will range from the mid 20s to the mid
30s, and Tuesday`s highs will range from the mid 40s in the east
(where skies will be cloudy all day) to the mid 50s in the west
(where skies should be sunny by the early afternoon). Tuesday
night`s lows will range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s, meaning
that road conditions could be hazardous as rainfall from earlier in
the day could freeze on roads that night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...
On Monday morning, high pressure will be centered over New York with
a ridge extending southwest through the Carolinas into Georgia. The
high will move offshore during the day as low pressure moves into
the Great Lakes. The most impactful weather during this time period
will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning. By 00Z Tuesday, a
weak (1024 mb) surface low will start spinning up along the
northeastern coast of Florida. This low will likely be closest to
the forecast area around 1019 mb off Wilmington early Tuesday
afternoon before moving off to the northeast. With the cold high
pressure extending south from New England into the Carolinas Monday,
there will be a good amount of cold air in place locally that should
result in evaporational cooling and could result in precipitation
Monday night initially beginning as something other than rain.
Considering how warm temperatures will be above the surface, snow
will not be a possible precipitation type with this storm. With how
shallow the below-freezing layer will be, precipitation types during
this time period will either be rain or freezing rain; sleet should
also not be a possibility. The GFS continues to be a wet outlier
compared to other models. The two biggest uncertainties with the
forecast will be the spatial extent of the freezing rain and how
much precipitation falls before any freezing rain changes over to
liquid rain. The most likely period for freezing precipitation will
be between midnight and 10am Tuesday. By the afternoon, the low will
be moving to the east and precipitation will be decreasing in
coverage, likely coming to an end by sunset. The primary change with
this forecast package was to expand the chance of precipitation
northwest, grazing portions of the Triad, and along the same lines,
expanding the area that has a chance of freezing rain. While pops
were increased, the only area with likely pops is southern Sampson
County, and the temperatures in that area should remain above
freezing, so all of that precipitation would fall as rain.
As for temperatures, Monday`s highs should be within a few degrees
of today`s values, in the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Values will drop
quickly Monday evening with clear skies before bottoming out around
midnight as cloud cover moves in from the south. temperatures will
then remain steady or slightly increase through the rest of the
night before following a typical diurnal curve Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Monday night`s lows will range from the mid 20s to the mid
30s, and Tuesday`s highs will range from the mid 40s in the east
(where skies will be cloudy all day) to the mid 50s in the west
(where skies should be sunny by the early afternoon). Tuesday
night`s lows will range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s, meaning
that road conditions could be hazardous as rainfall from earlier in
the day could freeze on roads that night.
&&
Low pressure will develop off the southeastern United States coast
Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a chance of freezing rain to much
of the forecast area. While all locations will have the threat for
freezing rain, the greatest potential for ice accumulation appears
to be along the US-1 corridor.
SimeonNC
Member
New 3k NAM officially brings freezing drizzle to CLT.
One thing I hadn’t thought about until tonight is after the last two days, the ground is gonna be really cold
SimeonNC
Member
Doesn't the HRRR have a warm bias? The 00z HRRR is legit colder than the 3k NAM, which is a first.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The HRRR has a mixing bias, which by virtue means it likes to mix out the shallow CAD too quickly and is usually too warm, particularly near the edge of the dome
Not having a closer look further at the HRRR, that's probably because it depicts clear skies in the sub-freezing areas.