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Tropical Call maps Irma

deltadog03

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B5CB0274-DDCC-4274-A952-CCA2A3B32B23.jpeg Lots of questions still to be answerd on this one. Here is my first call on what I think is possible for Irma. With help from a few others on here.
 
JB said he had this strength at this time at cat 5 last week! He's the man!
But on a serious tip, don't see how some parts of Florida avoid getting destroyed! :(
 
Here is my first call for this storm. Again, this is just my map. Use NHC forecasts over this.

Basically, I fell the GFS is a bit too far east and may be overdoing its size, but not its intensity. I believe the HMON is doing great, and therefore have adapted it into my call map. The GEFS and EPS also seem to be relatively similar, but different than their strange OP runs. I expect this thing to deliver a very powerful blow to South Florida, so it's likely a good thing they are evacuating tomorrow. The red indicates the furthest out away from the path I think Irma could go based off of all the models, and the cone indicates the idea I have. If you can't read the numbers, I expect Irma to stay a 5 until the Dominican Republic area, then if it doesn't weaken much, stay one until landfall. If something weakens it, be it ERC or land interaction, I expect it to weaken between a 4 and 5. However, I expect it to restrengthen right before landfall as the waters between Florida and the Bahamas are just rocket fuel to the storm. I even feel that if it is right in the middle between the two, it could beat its winds it has right now. We just have to keep watching it and I may make another call once it passes Hispaniola.
Fist_Call.jpg
 
Here is my first call for this storm. Again, this is just my map. Use NHC forecasts over this.

Basically, I fell the GFS is a bit too far east and may be overdoing its size, but not its intensity. I believe the HMON is doing great, and therefore have adapted it into my call map. The GEFS and EPS also seem to be relatively similar, but different than their strange OP runs. I expect this thing to deliver a very powerful blow to South Florida, so it's likely a good thing they are evacuating tomorrow. The red indicates the furthest out away from the path I think Irma could go based off of all the models, and the cone indicates the idea I have. If you can't read the numbers, I expect Irma to stay a 5 until the Dominican Republic area, then if it doesn't weaken much, stay one until landfall. If something weakens it, be it ERC or land interaction, I expect it to weaken between a 4 and 5. However, I expect it to restrengthen right before landfall as the waters between Florida and the Bahamas are just rocket fuel to the storm. I even feel that if it is right in the middle between the two, it could beat its winds it has right now. We just have to keep watching it and I may make another call once it passes Hispaniola.
Fist_Call.jpg
FS - Nice call but I take issue with the 1 over near Gainesville - the Gators suck this year ... LOL

PS - Please take this as intended - I hope you bust!
 
FS - Nice call but I take issue with the 1 over near Gainesville - the Gators suck this year ... LOL

PS - Please take this as intended - I hope you bust!
LOL. I'm hoping it busts too for all of our sakes. If it doesn't, at least you would be on the weaker side of the storm. However, a hurricane is a hurricane, so it can do damage no matter what.
 


Just a quick stab on track by me, and I definitely lean more toward right down the middle and the western side. If I feel like it I might try to make a more detailed map in a couple days.

Don't know why this image is small here and I don't endorse Accuweather, but it was what I could do right now.
 
Ok I will fix it sorry. It wouldn’t let upload it. Too big. So I will compress it.
 
^Given the ongoing uncertainty beyond 72hrs I think that's a great call map. I'm going to revise mine sometime later today. I knew I should have waited until today after the 00z model guidance to post the first one, I should have known the 00z models were going to screw me over. lol It was based on the Euro/UK being so far west and the GFS far east and taking a middle of the road approach.
 
^Given the ongoing uncertainty beyond 72hrs I think that's a great call map. I'm going to revise mine sometime later today. I knew I should have waited until today after the 00z model guidance to post the first one, I should have known the 00z models were going to screw me over. lol It was based on the Euro/UK being so far west and the GFS far east and taking a middle of the road approach.
I am going to wait until tonight to make a revision, as we should know then whether Irma will strike PR or go north.
 
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