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Tropical Call maps Irma (1 Viewer)

deltadog03

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#1
B5CB0274-DDCC-4274-A952-CCA2A3B32B23.jpeg Lots of questions still to be answerd on this one. Here is my first call on what I think is possible for Irma. With help from a few others on here.
 
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#2
JB said he had this strength at this time at cat 5 last week! He's the man!
But on a serious tip, don't see how some parts of Florida avoid getting destroyed! :(
 

ForsythSnow

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#10
Here is my first call for this storm. Again, this is just my map. Use NHC forecasts over this.

Basically, I fell the GFS is a bit too far east and may be overdoing its size, but not its intensity. I believe the HMON is doing great, and therefore have adapted it into my call map. The GEFS and EPS also seem to be relatively similar, but different than their strange OP runs. I expect this thing to deliver a very powerful blow to South Florida, so it's likely a good thing they are evacuating tomorrow. The red indicates the furthest out away from the path I think Irma could go based off of all the models, and the cone indicates the idea I have. If you can't read the numbers, I expect Irma to stay a 5 until the Dominican Republic area, then if it doesn't weaken much, stay one until landfall. If something weakens it, be it ERC or land interaction, I expect it to weaken between a 4 and 5. However, I expect it to restrengthen right before landfall as the waters between Florida and the Bahamas are just rocket fuel to the storm. I even feel that if it is right in the middle between the two, it could beat its winds it has right now. We just have to keep watching it and I may make another call once it passes Hispaniola.
 

pcbjr

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#11
Here is my first call for this storm. Again, this is just my map. Use NHC forecasts over this.

Basically, I fell the GFS is a bit too far east and may be overdoing its size, but not its intensity. I believe the HMON is doing great, and therefore have adapted it into my call map. The GEFS and EPS also seem to be relatively similar, but different than their strange OP runs. I expect this thing to deliver a very powerful blow to South Florida, so it's likely a good thing they are evacuating tomorrow. The red indicates the furthest out away from the path I think Irma could go based off of all the models, and the cone indicates the idea I have. If you can't read the numbers, I expect Irma to stay a 5 until the Dominican Republic area, then if it doesn't weaken much, stay one until landfall. If something weakens it, be it ERC or land interaction, I expect it to weaken between a 4 and 5. However, I expect it to restrengthen right before landfall as the waters between Florida and the Bahamas are just rocket fuel to the storm. I even feel that if it is right in the middle between the two, it could beat its winds it has right now. We just have to keep watching it and I may make another call once it passes Hispaniola.
FS - Nice call but I take issue with the 1 over near Gainesville - the Gators suck this year ... LOL

PS - Please take this as intended - I hope you bust!
 

ForsythSnow

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#12
FS - Nice call but I take issue with the 1 over near Gainesville - the Gators suck this year ... LOL

PS - Please take this as intended - I hope you bust!
LOL. I'm hoping it busts too for all of our sakes. If it doesn't, at least you would be on the weaker side of the storm. However, a hurricane is a hurricane, so it can do damage no matter what.
 
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#14


Just a quick stab on track by me, and I definitely lean more toward right down the middle and the western side. If I feel like it I might try to make a more detailed map in a couple days.

Don't know why this image is small here and I don't endorse Accuweather, but it was what I could do right now.
 

deltadog03

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#17
Ok I will fix it sorry. It wouldn’t let upload it. Too big. So I will compress it.
 
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#19
^Given the ongoing uncertainty beyond 72hrs I think that's a great call map. I'm going to revise mine sometime later today. I knew I should have waited until today after the 00z model guidance to post the first one, I should have known the 00z models were going to screw me over. lol It was based on the Euro/UK being so far west and the GFS far east and taking a middle of the road approach.
 

ForsythSnow

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#20
^Given the ongoing uncertainty beyond 72hrs I think that's a great call map. I'm going to revise mine sometime later today. I knew I should have waited until today after the 00z model guidance to post the first one, I should have known the 00z models were going to screw me over. lol It was based on the Euro/UK being so far west and the GFS far east and taking a middle of the road approach.
I am going to wait until tonight to make a revision, as we should know then whether Irma will strike PR or go north.
 

GaStorm

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#21
I am going to wait until tonight to make a revision, as we should know then whether Irma will strike PR or go north.
Seems like it will take a lot to miss PR at this point. Although there is a NW motion but not sure that will be enough at least for the northeastern tip of PR.
 
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#22
Seems like it will take a lot to miss PR at this point. Although there is a NW motion but not sure that will be enough at least for the northeastern tip of PR.
I still think the eye will safely miss PR, it'll be close, but I don't think it will make landfall even briefly.
 

GaStorm

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#23
I still think the eye will safely miss PR, it'll be close, but I don't think it will make landfall even briefly.
You might be right. Last loop does appear to be heading north a bit more which would be great news. I'm hoping it misses south FL since my aunt is there.
 
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#27
[UOTE="Weatherlover92, post: 43809, member: 221"]My final detailed map.
[/QUOTE]
Your map shows a Cat 4 at 2nd landfall whereas NHC shows a Cat 1. Why do you think it will be so strong at 2nd landfall ?
 

ForsythSnow

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#28
For now, I am deciding to keep my call map as is, but I may make a finer one later dependant on 18Z. I believe that the intensity may be off a bit for the Florida landfall, but we will see what Irma can do in those hot waters.
 
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#29
[UOTE="Weatherlover92, post: 43809, member: 221"]My final detailed map.
Your map shows a Cat 4 at 2nd landfall whereas NHC shows a Cat 1. Why do you think it will be so strong at 2nd landfall ?[/QUOTE]

My second landfall is a Cat. 3, but you did catch a mistake I made. It should say 120mph, not 130mph. I'll post a revision of it in a bit. To answer your other question, it really depends on what kind of state Irma is in once it approaches FL and then approaches GA/SC. This was a bullish version of my forecast. I know increasing wind shear will be a factor, but I don't know how much because there's still a possibility Irma could re-intensify before it gets near SE FL and those factors obviously have an affect on the wind speeds.
 

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