Brent
Member
Bertha
-
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Tropical Bertha
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Recon obs indicate a west turn. The old LLC is getting tugged south toward the downshear convection, it would seem.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 85.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Alabama/Florida
border to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for west of the
Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border to Morgan City, Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for Metropolitan New
Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.
The Tropical Storm Watch east of the Bay/Gulf County Florida line
has been discontinued.
Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
The system has become a little better organized with an area of deep
convection over the southern semicircle showing slight curvature and
limited curved convective bands over the northwestern quadrant.
Flight-level winds from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft within the convection to the southwest and southeast of the
center indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, so the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. The aircraft also reported
that the central pressure has dropped about 6 mb since this
afternoon. The storm has well-defined upper-level outflow to the
south and southwest, but outflow is limited over the northern
semicircle.
There have been several center fixes from the aircraft which
indicate very slow, erratic motion. Since the storm has moved
very little overall this evening, the best estimate for the initial
motion is nearly stationary. Bertha remains sandwiched between two
mid-level subtropical high cells, in a region of weak steering
currents. The high to the northwest of the storm is forecast to
become the dominant steering influence which should induce a
west-northwestward or westward motion over the next few days. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction,
on the southern side of the guidance suite and close to the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean.
Bertha is being affected by significant north-northeasterly vertical
wind shear. Dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will
increase during the next couple of days. This should limit
intensification of the storm before the center reaches the coast.
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows the deep
convection near or offshore of the coastline, likely due to the
shear. Unfavorable atmospheric conditions along with the
interaction of land should prevent strengthening late in the
forecast period. The official intensity forecast is on the high
side of the model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 28.2N 85.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 29.3N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1200Z 29.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 29.3N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 25/0000Z 29.3N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 26/0000Z 29.3N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 85.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Alabama/Florida
border to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for west of the
Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border to Morgan City, Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for Metropolitan New
Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.
The Tropical Storm Watch east of the Bay/Gulf County Florida line
has been discontinued.
Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
The system has become a little better organized with an area of deep
convection over the southern semicircle showing slight curvature and
limited curved convective bands over the northwestern quadrant.
Flight-level winds from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft within the convection to the southwest and southeast of the
center indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, so the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. The aircraft also reported
that the central pressure has dropped about 6 mb since this
afternoon. The storm has well-defined upper-level outflow to the
south and southwest, but outflow is limited over the northern
semicircle.
There have been several center fixes from the aircraft which
indicate very slow, erratic motion. Since the storm has moved
very little overall this evening, the best estimate for the initial
motion is nearly stationary. Bertha remains sandwiched between two
mid-level subtropical high cells, in a region of weak steering
currents. The high to the northwest of the storm is forecast to
become the dominant steering influence which should induce a
west-northwestward or westward motion over the next few days. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction,
on the southern side of the guidance suite and close to the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean.
Bertha is being affected by significant north-northeasterly vertical
wind shear. Dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will
increase during the next couple of days. This should limit
intensification of the storm before the center reaches the coast.
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows the deep
convection near or offshore of the coastline, likely due to the
shear. Unfavorable atmospheric conditions along with the
interaction of land should prevent strengthening late in the
forecast period. The official intensity forecast is on the high
side of the model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 28.2N 85.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 29.3N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1200Z 29.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 29.3N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 25/0000Z 29.3N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 26/0000Z 29.3N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Sky86
Member
They mentioned Deep Mind
0Z UKMET: significantly stronger than last few runs and not as far N track allowing it to avoid LA for the most part and actually landfall just S of Galveston as TS, where Joe Bastardi said he may be hanging out:
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.07.2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 86.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.07.2026 0 28.5N 86.2W 1005 32
1200UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.7N 86.4W 1001 42
0000UTC 22.07.2026 24 29.3N 87.1W 1001 37
1200UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 87.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 23.07.2026 48 28.9N 89.0W 1002 42
1200UTC 23.07.2026 60 29.0N 90.3W 1004 37
0000UTC 24.07.2026 72 28.5N 92.6W 1000 40
1200UTC 24.07.2026 84 29.1N 94.9W 1006 38
0000UTC 25.07.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.07.2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 86.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.07.2026 0 28.5N 86.2W 1005 32
1200UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.7N 86.4W 1001 42
0000UTC 22.07.2026 24 29.3N 87.1W 1001 37
1200UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 87.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 23.07.2026 48 28.9N 89.0W 1002 42
1200UTC 23.07.2026 60 29.0N 90.3W 1004 37
0000UTC 24.07.2026 72 28.5N 92.6W 1000 40
1200UTC 24.07.2026 84 29.1N 94.9W 1006 38
0000UTC 25.07.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING
Look closely and the cursor is where center of circulation is. All the convection is being blown off omto its southernside still.
NoSnowATL
Member
This system is a non story down here in Florida. Pop up storms cause more drama. Just enough rain to keep everything wet and miserable.
Last edited:
Brent
Member
Its actually strengthened overnight somehow but yeah the dry air and shear is definitely keeping most of it offshore
Pressure down to 997 MB at 7am
Pressure down to 997 MB at 7am
Indeed:
Peak Flight-Level Winds: 62kt at 11:55z
NHC 5AM EDT forecast had it at 50 knots as of 2PM EDT. It appears to already be about that strong at the approximated surface level.
The windfield has tightened up substantially even in the face of dry air and northeast shear. Bertha is firing off some deep convection near and over the COC again. It'll be interesting to see if it can sustain this convection over the COC throughout the day. Doubtful given the shear and nearby dry air, but who knows?
