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Pattern August Rush

It was only 70 this morning here, but it did feel great with a fresh breeze as I was taking kids to school.
 
The August cool spell is more reliable in NC/VA due to help from cad.


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Rain Cold said:
Man, ya'll need to learn how to go to tropical tidbits and look at the pretty maps! Lots more pretty red and orange colors over the east than the yellows and greens from previous runs. Might get your no 90s wish, though. 90s don't have 3 digits, do they? :(
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I wouldn't worry too much. However, if it starts showing 4 digit temps, then I might get concerned.
 
The GFS looks almost like a NW flow/MCS pattern for parts of TN as it rounds out August and into Labor Day weekend.
 
GFS looks fairly wet over much of the SE from about Aug 30- end of the run! I love happy hour GFS
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
No telling what they could have hit without the urban heat island effect
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Despite the UHI effect, low temp records at Charlotte since the year 2000 have been much more frequent than at nearby major stations for some unknown reason. In this period of global warming, there have actually been slightly more low min records (84) than high max records (79) at Charlotte since 2000! It isn’t that the 79 is a low # because it actually is higher than what one would expect for only a 19 year period, which is consistent with global warming. It is the astoundingly high 84 record low mins during this GW period that is a big mystery. In contrast, both Raleigh and Lumberton have had a whopping 3 times as many record high maxes as record low mins since 2000, which is what one would expect to see due to GW:

- Raleigh: a whopping 99 record high maxes vs only 33 record lows.
- Lumberton: 69 record high maxes vs only 23 record lows

My hypothesis to try to explain the high # of Charlotte record lows since 2000 is that the station got changed either in the 1990s or early 2000s in some way that has made it more conducive to radiational cooling at night. Anyone know more about this?
 
GaWx said:
Despite the UHI effect, low temp records at Charlotte since the year 2000 have been much more frequent than at nearby major stations for some unknown reason. In this period of global warming, there have actually been slightly more low min records (84) than high max records (79) at Charlotte since 2000! It isn’t that the 79 is a low # because it actually is higher than what one would expect for only a 19 year period, which is consistent with global warming. It is the astoundingly high 84 record low mins during this GW period that is a big mystery. In contrast, both Raleigh and Lumberton have had a whopping 3 times as many record high maxes as record low mins since 2000, which is what one would expect to see due to GW:

- Raleigh: a whopping 99 record high maxes vs only 33 record lows.
- Lumberton: 69 record high maxes vs only 23 record lows

My hypothesis to try to explain the high # of Charlotte record lows since 2000 is that the station got changed either in the 1990s or early 2000s in some way that has made it more conducive to radiational cooling at night. Anyone know more about this?
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The airport is just outside the city. Maybe just enough to avoid the UHI, if they indeed get the official temp from the Charlotte Douglas airport .
If memory serves, it’s a little S and W of the city proper.if they moved it there in 2000 or so, that could explain the amount of records, it’s just rural enough to get peak radiational cooling, and it’s not far from the Catawba river, so it could be in a low point or valley!
 
What an amazing last three days! I can't remember an August in recent memory (although I was in Cali from 2008-2013) where it felt this crisp!

W- 80/65
Th- 81/60
Fr- 80/58

Sitting at 61 this hour. Definitely enjoying this weather during my last few weeks here before returning back to California.
 
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August 2004 had a mondo front that was ultra refreshing... got down to 54 in CHA.... I remember it because I was working for a furniture moving company at the time.
 
58 again! :eek:
 
One last major shot of summer is likely forthcoming over the next few weeks, thereafter the tables are going to turn in favor of much cooler, fall-like weather (and not just because this is climatologically expected), rather with the current quasi-stationary west-central Pacific NINO "forcing", the response in the large-scale pattern favors ridging in early September, but big troughs late in September and into October over the E US. If this comes to fruition, we might get an early head start on fall this year, which I'm sure few would complain about, however the tropical Atlantic will probably heat up (couldn't get much quieter tbh) especially later in September.
 
Webberweather53 said:
One last major shot of summer is likely forthcoming over the next few weeks, thereafter the tables are going to turn in favor of much cooler, fall-like weather (and not just because this is climatologically expected), rather with the current quasi-stationary west-central Pacific NINO "forcing", the response in the large-scale pattern favors ridging in early September, but big troughs late in September and into October over the E US. If this comes to fruition, we might get an early head start on fall this year, which I'm sure few would complain about, however the tropical Atlantic will probably heat up (couldn't get much quieter tbh) especially later in September.
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So the door will be wide open for landfall during the peak.


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BHS1975 said:
So the door will be wide open for landfall during the peak.


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Well the door will be wide open for the next 3 weeks or so, troughing over the E US and Atlantic Canada if the W-CP (NINO) forcing persists, favors recuravtures of TCs in the western Atlantic late in September into October. (climatology also becomes increasingly unfavorable throughout the season for landfalls because the AB high progressively weakens beginning in mid-late July (another reason why SAL decreases after July)), but this pattern will not protect us from storms that form in the Gulf, NW Caribbean, and may do little good for those that develop close to home off the SE US coast.
 
Currently 83 at 10:15 this AM. Everyone enjoy there weekend.
 
I see fall tried to make an early visit this week. I had a high of 78 on Thursday under clear skies and full sun which is pretty amazing for the 3rd week of August. My low was 54 which was my lowest temp since late may. I’m so glad we are almost to fall which is my favorite time of the year since I know I’ll have 5 months of no heat and humidity.
 
GaWx said:
Despite the UHI effect, low temp records at Charlotte since the year 2000 have been much more frequent than at nearby major stations for some unknown reason. In this period of global warming, there have actually been slightly more low min records (84) than high max records (79) at Charlotte since 2000! It isn’t that the 79 is a low # because it actually is higher than what one would expect for only a 19 year period, which is consistent with global warming. It is the astoundingly high 84 record low mins during this GW period that is a big mystery. In contrast, both Raleigh and Lumberton have had a whopping 3 times as many record high maxes as record low mins since 2000, which is what one would expect to see due to GW:

- Raleigh: a whopping 99 record high maxes vs only 33 record lows.
- Lumberton: 69 record high maxes vs only 23 record lows

My hypothesis to try to explain the high # of Charlotte record lows since 2000 is that the station got changed either in the 1990s or early 2000s in some way that has made it more conducive to radiational cooling at night. Anyone know more about this?
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Before they moved the sensor in 1998, Charlotte used to have the highest nighttime low temperatures in the region.
102606.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
One last major shot of summer is likely forthcoming over the next few weeks, thereafter the tables are going to turn in favor of much cooler, fall-like weather (and not just because this is climatologically expected), rather with the current quasi-stationary west-central Pacific NINO "forcing", the response in the large-scale pattern favors ridging in early September, but big troughs late in September and into October over the E US. If this comes to fruition, we might get an early head start on fall this year, which I'm sure few would complain about, however the tropical Atlantic will probably heat up (couldn't get much quieter tbh) especially later in September.
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I hope so. I remember back in the 70's walking through yards filled with leaves at Halloween. Trees were bare by Thanksgiving. Now it seems trees cling on to their leaves until December. November 2016 was quite surreal with trees still green following the October torch that year.
 
SD said:
Looks like we will back down from the 90s by Friday

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Looks like we flipped our luck over the last 14 days, that strip of precip minimum right through my backyard and the strip of maximum right close to your's....

nws_precip_norfolk_14.png
 
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