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Pattern Arid August

weatherfide said:
The rain in the Sahara is very abnormal - like it has never happened in recorded history is some parts - abnormal. I haven't found anyone with an explanation, either. Obviously the ITCZ has shifted north, but why? The earth's obliquity is about 23.4 degrees, half way between the range of 22.1 and 24.5. Could something be pulling our globe toward the 22.1 way faster than anticipated? That would increase the sun angle and move the ITCZ north.
Click to expand...
Opposite, going to 22.1 is decreasing our summer angle and increasing our winter one. The Sahara was green 6,000 years ago because the tilt was 24.5 which lead to a higher summer angle and further north ICTZ. The decreasing angle is what’s driving it south. The reason it’s further north is peculiar this summer.
 
weatherfide said:
The rain in the Sahara is very abnormal - like it has never happened in recorded history is some parts - abnormal. I haven't found anyone with an explanation, either. Obviously the ITCZ has shifted north, but why? The earth's obliquity is about 23.4 degrees, half way between the range of 22.1 and 24.5. Could something be pulling our globe toward the 22.1 way faster than anticipated? That would increase the sun angle and move the ITCZ north.
Click to expand...
off the cuff reaction- might have something to do with hadley cell expansion related to climate change
 
Storms heading our way! @SD
WWUS52 KRAH 301804
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
204 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

NCC063-183-301815-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-240830T1815Z/
Wake NC-Durham NC-
204 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN WAKE AND SOUTHEASTERN DURHAM COUNTIES...

At 204 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from RDU International to 8 miles east of Raleigh, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Wake Forest, RDU International, Morrisville,
Knightdale, Rolesville, Falls Lake Boat Ramp, and William B Umstead
State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3601 7850 3600 7848 3578 7838 3578 7881
3592 7885 3598 7885 3601 7868
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 248DEG 14KT 3590 7878 3582 7851

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CA
 
Another one issued!
WUUS52 KRAH 301811
SVRRAH
NCC069-183-301900-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0154.240830T1811Z-240830T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
211 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Wake County in central North Carolina...
South central Franklin County in central North Carolina...

* Until 300 PM EDT.

* At 211 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Raleigh,
moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Garner, Zebulon, Knightdale, Wendell, Rolesville,
Pilot, and William B Umstead State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 7829 3583 7825 3582 7826 3572 7842
3573 7876 3592 7878
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 264DEG 9KT 3581 7860

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Kren
 
NO WATCH EXPECTED
mcd2035.png
Mesoscale Discussion 2035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Areas affected...much of central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301809Z - 302015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage from northern into
central North Carolina, with isolated damaging gusts possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and visible imagery show a cold front
extending from parts of western VA into northern/northeastern NC. A
moist and unstable air mass exists south of this front with MLCAPE
over 2000 J/kg, although midlevel lapse rates are poor and below 6.0
C/km. Storms are already forming along the front, as well as north
of the wind shift into southern VA.

As heating continues, steepening low-level lapse rates along with
ample precipitable water will support locally strong downdrafts.
Although winds aloft/shear are weak, clustering of storms near the
front may result in a few southward-propagating clusters as outflows
merge, yielding areas of strong or locally damaging gusts.

..Jewell/Bunting.. 08/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT!!! CHECK YOUR PHONES NOW!!!
WGUS52 KRAH 301817
FFWRAH
NCC183-302130-
/O.NEW.KRAH.FF.W.0048.240830T1817Z-240830T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
217 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Central Wake County in central North Carolina...

* Until 530 PM EDT.

* At 217 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of
rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Raleigh, Cary, Wake Forest, Garner, RDU International, Knightdale,
Wendell, Rolesville, William B Umstead State Park and Falls Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 7841 3587 7840 3581 7836 3572 7844
3571 7853 3571 7860 3573 7869 3577 7879
3584 7880 3590 7880 3592 7877 3592 7876
3593 7875 3594 7872 3596 7855

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

28
 
Everyone in Harnett, Cumberland, Johnston, Moore, Lee, and Sampson counties pointing southward, please charge ALL devices now! Widespread power outages likely ahead of this storm. Won't take much to provide that "punch" for trees to topple.
 
weatherfide said:
The rain in the Sahara is very abnormal - like it has never happened in recorded history is some parts - abnormal. I haven't found anyone with an explanation, either. Obviously the ITCZ has shifted north, but why? The earth's obliquity is about 23.4 degrees, half way between the range of 22.1 and 24.5. Could something be pulling our globe toward the 22.1 way faster than anticipated? That would increase the sun angle and move the ITCZ north.
Click to expand...
That should knock down that Saharan dust that has been impeding tropical development in the Atlantic.
 
snowc said:
@SD could this issue a possible watch for NC if this intensifies?
Click to expand...
Doubtful. Once this area converges and kicks out an flow S/SE out of its cold pool that area will likely die off an any new convection isn't going to be able to sustain the same type of updraft we are seeing with this initial stuff
 
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