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Pattern April Thread

This might be the first solid setup for NC this year when it comes to widespread convection, and basically a 0 tornado threat
Biggest threat would be damaging winds given large inverted Vs/steep low level lapse rates with large Dcape and dry air present in the mid levels, also some minor mid level flow for multicell clusters/minor organization 39BE62BC-F8C8-40E9-88CE-2340AE1CFF53.png23BE3E2B-BE84-4A69-843E-A90C1C99EC5D.png71D5E59E-C548-4866-8726-0A5F140C483F.png
 
Now a decent area under moderate drought in east central NC. We are running about -4.5 inches right now. Some rain chances coming up but not enough to break this drought. May will be a make it or break it month if we stay dry expect a hot baked ground to sustain some very hot days this summer.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
This might be the first solid setup for NC this year when it comes to widespread convection, and basically a 0 tornado threat
Biggest threat would be damaging winds given large inverted Vs/steep low level lapse rates with large Dcape and dry air present in the mid levels, also some minor mid level flow for multicell clusters/minor organization View attachment 117645View attachment 117647View attachment 117652
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Looking at the timing on this, there should be plenty of instability with this coming in at peak heating
 
metwannabe said:
Well bout time to take the wheels off the cooler pattern wagon anyway
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Yep, up to this point a big eastern trough meant a cold airmass with potential of frost/freezes. We're now at a point a trough means beautiful weather (70s low humidity); anything else is warm/humid. And those troughs will come through less and less in May.
 
Everybody is wet on the GFS! Great news, especially if we are staying in a Niña regime! 2AB0167F-258A-465C-A125-E0E420A5C351.png
 
Good old rainy day here... Haven't had many of these with the drought especially to my west

Also down to 54 after being near 80 the last couple days
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
GFS has basically caved to the euro with the pattern with temps in the 80s and dews in the 60s starting around day 7 with solid
Amounts of instability each day
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Fine with me. Garden is in the ground and daily storm chances is what makes summer bearable.
 
GFS says let’s fast forward to June, a preview summer swamp ass pattern, temps getting close to 90s with dews in the mid 60s, someone hide nicky man !! 20A78BD1-BDA3-491F-86AA-3A4F5F320437.png7EA16228-466B-46A4-8DB3-1CE18336F257.png233CB597-8F43-48D8-9080-8DF3867F933D.pngE852C6EC-977C-4388-A8C1-FBE59008C21D.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
GFS says let’s fast forward to June, a preview summer swamp Tom Brady Sucks pattern, temps getting close to 90s with dews in the mid 60s, someone hide nicky man !! View attachment 117679View attachment 117680View attachment 117681View attachment 117682
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This is a solid rain look for the region with a decent threat for rounds of severe (wind hail threats). Bermuda sfc high, stalled "front", numerous disturbances aloft. I don't buy the big deep vortex the 12z gfs around d10 has yet. Big bugaboos in this look is a well defined storm complex to the north forcing the wedge front farther south than currently modeled and crapping out a day or 2 or we get an upper low to dig more than forecast to slowly sink south and park over the region
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
GFS says let’s fast forward to June, a preview summer swamp Tom Brady Sucks pattern, temps getting close to 90s with dews in the mid 60s, someone hide nicky man !! View attachment 117679View attachment 117680View attachment 117681View attachment 117682
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Wow! That’s a lot of cold in Canada! Looks like a November map, with y’all waiting 3 months and chasing 15 gfs cold snaps! ??
Seriously, this is only my 2nd April, but it has been very , very cold! Nicky B kind of weather and the month looks to end like this as well! ☃️?11729ADF-66E5-45B9-87BB-AC881911C918.png
 
SD said:
Good news it isn't going to take a lot to make this 84/66 again bad news it's not going to take a lot to make it 54/54 and drizzle. On the bright side a lot of rain on the euro I'd love a wet first half of May
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We desperately need a wet first half of May. Hard to believe after the extremely wet summer last year where we had +15-20in surpluses we are now way behind and in a moderate drought
 
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