• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern April Showers

Webberweather53 said:
I'm going to keep piling it on. Both the ocean and atmosphere are playing ball to give us an El Nino in a few-several months
Click to expand...

The big question that I'm wanting to know the answer to is what are the odds that we get enough of one to impact hurricane season this year? My thinking is that the transition helps inhibit some development later in the season when it peaks, but if it's slow and we hang around a very weak one or neutral, that it could be bad again.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The big question that I'm wanting to know the answer to is what are the odds that we get enough of one to impact hurricane season this year? My thinking is that the transition helps inhibit some development later in the season when it peaks, but if it's slow and we hang around a very weak one or neutral, that it could be bad again.
Click to expand...

It won't matter much whether we get one on paper or not. The large-scale circulation pattern is liable to be detrimental to a sizable portion of the Atlantic basin with the eastern Pacific more active than normal this year given the huge +PMM regime. El Ninos lead to above normal westerly wind shear in the Atlantic by producing upper level diabatically-induced outflow that is ventilated into the Atlantic, active northeastern Pacific hurricane seasons do the same thing just at a slightly different frequency. You don't need an El Nino to increase the westerly wind shear in a large part of the tropical Atlantic
 
ForsythSnow said:
The big question that I'm wanting to know the answer to is what are the odds that we get enough of one to impact hurricane season this year? My thinking is that the transition helps inhibit some development later in the season when it peaks, but if it's slow and we hang around a very weak one or neutral, that it could be bad again.
Click to expand...
There will be less than 10 named Atlantic storms , only 4 make hurricane status
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
While I was out walking in the evening I heard distant thunder and I noticed the thunderstorm cells popping to the south of me on the radar. It's interesting, as it's right at nighttime and they're still there, but I haven't had one really get me yet. I think it's coming, and I haven't showered yet (uh oh, but I'm getting in soon after I post this).

Weird thing is there was a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in the evening, but it long expired before all this started up.
Click to expand...

called it...was unluckily woken up by a loud thunderstorm again at about 1 am last night. I was half asleep thanks to that in the morning.
 
Today (4/25) is the anniversary of one of the freakiest wx events ever in KATL, the 1.5" snowfall of 4/25/1910! This is also their heaviest on record in April as well as their latest measurable snowfall on record.
Chattanooga had 4"! Just about as amazing is that the high at both cities was only 39! Pure craziness!
 
Ready to dry out.

tenor.gif
 
Oklahoma has yet to record a tornado this year ! Only 2 years in recorded history has Oklahoma went the entire month of April without a tornado.
 
Dallas is on track for one of the coldest Aprils ever, amazing lol, winter wasn't even that cold :p

the lack of tornadoes in Oklahoma is amazing too
 
April of 2018 is now projected to be the coldest April based on a national natural gas usage weighted heating degree day (HDD) basis since 1983 and colder than April of 1997 by about 10 HDDs! Keep in mind that the heart of the coldest anomalies was well north of the SE US as most in the SE will end up no colder than a few degrees colder than normal. So, I'm not saying it is the coldest April since 1983 in the SE. Actually, FL has been a little warmer than normal.
 
Last edited:
Further to the above post regarding the projected April of 2018 anomalies as a whole:

Of active BB members, SERidge (~-6), Brent (~-5), and anyone near MEM (~-5) will end up the coldest. Nash. will be ~-4 while Birm. and Chat. will be ~-3. Most of NC will be near the -3 to -2 range while ATL/MCN/AUG into S AL will be ~-2. SAV/CHS will only be ~-1. Jax & GNV (Phil) will be near 0 while most of FL to the south will be +1 to +2.
 
Regarding the system tomorrow, from the SPC, who currently has most of GA and SC in a MRGNL Risk.

Forecast soundings suggest robust updrafts may develop immediately ahead of
the upper low and shear profiles will favor sustained rotating
updrafts. For these reasons have introduced 5% severe probs to
account for isolated supercell development possibly as early as mid
day over AL. This activity should spread into the Carolinas during
the evening hours. Hail and perhaps locally damaging winds are the
primary threats.
Click to expand...
 
vtrap90 said:
Regarding the system tomorrow, from the SPC, who currently has most of GA and SC in a MRGNL Risk.
Click to expand...
I have a hard time buying this type of system this time of year not producing some mode of severe weather. I would lean toward a wind/ hail threat. The tornado threat exists though as winds back later in the day. Especially across south central nc into central SC and east central Ga. Later in the evening across central nc its seemingly a wind or hail threat with a dry

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
just had about 10 minutes of graupel i believe along with some heavy rain. it was round and looked exactly like dipping dots. temp fell about 6 degrees in 15 minutes. its 46.8 now.
 
Yeah , those storms in NGa heading into S.C., are intense! Hope they make it to my back yard!
 
Severe warned now! 1” hail core, radar indicated!
 
Aside from the recent basement flooding, I've enjoyed this April. Only one freeze, a couple of frosts, no real sustained heat or humidity. I'll take another dose of this for May. Going to end up around 3 degrees BN for the month temp-wise. Saw some sleet/sorta graupel one day, so call that a win for frozen precip in April I guess. Won't see even the possibility of it again until November. Hoping for a shortened heat/humid season this year.
 
I think the NWS dropped the ball last night, it's 34 here with some scattered Frost and I've seen some other reporting locations in the low 30s as well.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
39 here! Almost 30s in May! This is awesome!
 
Sitting at 37 here.

Edit, 34 at the end of the drive way with isolated frost and 33 about a mile away.
 
Last edited:
metwannabe said:
I think the NWS dropped the ball last night, it's 34 here with some scattered Frost and I've seen some other reporting locations in the low 30s as well.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
36 with a little frost here. When the nws discussion yesterday said "too dry for frost" I had to do a double take

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
36 with a little frost here. When the nws discussion yesterday said "too dry for frost" I had to do a double take

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Wait, what?! Wow..... yeah I don't get that logic at all.
 
With today's low of a quite chilly 44 (coldest in 13 days and tied for 3rd coldest of this month), KSAV's avg. low for the entire April of 2018 comes out to 52.3, which is colder than the avg. low for Feb. of 2018 of 52.5! Going back to the start of records in 1874, this has never happened and has never even come close to happening as the closest is 3.6 warmer (1990) (53.0 vs 49.4)!
 
34 imby this morning. Not bad for the last day in April though we have had a couple of light May frosts since I've lived here.
 
Ended up being the 2nd coldest April on record here. Just missed 1983 by a hair. We were at 53.5 for the month.
 
It was such an enjoyable April. Consider these stats for KSAV: Feb had 15 days with lows of 55+. April had only 11 and keep in mind there are 2 more days in April! The is historic, folks. I'm confident that the average dewpoint in April was comparable to that of if not lower than Feb., which is simply amazing. I savored every bit of my walking throughout the month because I knew this was a bonus and won't see anything like it again low dewpoint wise til Oct at the earliest and quite possibly not til Nov.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
It was such an enjoyable April. Consider these stats for KSAV: Feb had 15 days with lows of 55+. April had only 11 and keep in mind there are 2 more days in April! The is historic, folks. I'm confident that the average dewpoint in April was comparable to that of if not lower than Feb., which is simply amazing. I savored every bit of my walking throughout the month because I knew this was a bonus and won't see anything like it again low dewpoint wise til Oct at the earliest and quite possibly not til Nov.
Click to expand...

youwin.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top