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Pattern April Showers

Some portions of central NC (like Roxboro) have seen snow 4 times this year after the first week of March, apparently this winter doesn't care what the calendar says.
March 12 2018 NC Snowmap.png
March 13-14 2018 NC Snowmap.png
March 20-21 2018 NC Snowmap.png
March 24-25 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
If it was the GFS I could write it off, but the euro too makes it a bit more concerning. If there is an ice storm then pretty much every flowering tree or tree with leaves at this point is going to have trouble. Snow would work better than ice but either would mean tree damage I would think. I said winter was over not order up another storm for April! Oh well, if all the upper SE cashes in on an April snow or mixed bag I may go up to an A+ just because, unless the weather messes up my trees.
 
As crazy as several inches of snow sounds in central NC at this time of the year, it can definitely happen, we just haven't seen "that storm" yet in the modern era (and who knows if we ever will). As recently as 1989, a few inches of snow fell in the tidewater and SE coastal areas of NC, and their snowfall climo is pretty atrocious compared to Raleigh and Greensboro...
April 10-11 1989 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
As crazy as several inches of snow sounds in central NC at this time of the year, it can definitely happen, we just haven't seen "that storm" yet in the modern era (and who knows if we ever will). As recently as 1989, a few inches of snow fell in the tidewater and SE coastal areas of NC, and their snowfall climo is pretty atrocious compared to Raleigh and Greensboro...
View attachment 4900
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It would be weirder for TN as well I would think. Not to mention widespread. Looks like a late classic overrunning event to me but I've never seen one in April. Given how the Euro and GFS look, just a little colder and N GA into upstate SC and AL and maybe even upper MS could cash in.
 
Webberweather53 said:
As crazy as several inches of snow sounds in central NC at this time of the year, it can definitely happen, we just haven't seen "that storm" yet in the modern era (and who knows if we ever will). As recently as 1989, a few inches of snow fell in the tidewater and SE coastal areas of NC, and their snowfall climo is pretty atrocious compared to Raleigh and Greensboro...
View attachment 4900
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In the late 19th century, during the historic/insane winter of 1898-99, a storm showed up near the end of the 1st week of April and produced 6"+ of snow in Durham, Smithfield, Wake Forest, and Greenville.
April 4-5 1899 NC Snowmap.png
 
It's not going away. If anything, it is looking more and more like a legit threat here with the Euro showing it, too. It might seem crazy, but this winter and spring have been whacky, so it would not be too far fetched.
 
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At first I thought that was just one of the Euro panels and then see it is the control. Wow.
 
metwannabe said:
I'm kind of over Winter too but a part of me really wants to see this happen, I mean a rare April snow would be cool plus right now NWS has me at 58 with rain Saturday lol, they may need to tweak that a tad
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Snow is better than rain anytime, too.
 
SimeonNC said:
I'm more concerned about possible damages to farms

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As I said about the flowers and leaves on trees, that's what I would be most concerned about. The further south you go, the more the risk to crops and trees with ice due to higher surface area than in the middle of winter.
 
So.....assuming I was going to believe south of I-40 would see any snow in April. "Assuming". What's with the bubble of cold air when up north is way above freezing? It doesn't cut off. Doesn't look like a standard CAD situation, though I see the high over the Carolinas. How'd it get so cold? upload_2018-4-2_9-20-10.png
 
The last 2 GFS runs have had an amazingly cold measurable rain for this Saturday afternoon/evening 4/7 for the SAV-CHS corridor (coldest of the rain with mid 30s-40!!!), the likes of which haven't even been close to having occurred in April since 1915 based on my looking back at all of the Aprils back to then! Yes, that's 103 years ago. So, essentially what I'm saying is that the last 2 GFS runs have shown a once in 100 or so year event as far as the coldness of the rain in April is concerned for the SAV-CHS corridor! Combining that with the fact that these runs are significantly colder than overall model consensus for that area, the percentage chance at a bust is obviously very high for that area. But let's suppose these GFS runs were to somehow have the right idea. In that case, we'd be looking at an extremely rare April wx event in the SAV-CHS corridor, the likes of which would allow folks to tell their grand and great grandchildren about the great cold rain of April of 2018 as it could easily not happen again before 2100!

I'm not betting on this at all. However, if it were to occur, you can bet this is the kind of extreme wx event I would always remember as I'd appreciate the rarity of it. (Aside: these last 2 GFS runs also have a significant ZR/IP on 4/7 at Columbia as has been noted by others).
 
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SnowNiner said:
So.....assuming I was going to believe south of I-40 would see any snow in April. "Assuming". What's with the bubble of cold air when up north is way above freezing? It doesn't cut off. Doesn't look like a standard CAD situation, though I see the high over the Carolinas. How'd it get so cold? View attachment 4903
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Odd looking temp map.
 
SnowNiner said:
So.....assuming I was going to believe south of I-40 would see any snow in April. "Assuming". What's with the bubble of cold air when up north is way above freezing? It doesn't cut off. Doesn't look like a standard CAD situation, though I see the high over the Carolinas. How'd it get so cold? View attachment 4903
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In-situ CAD. With the high over NC
 
SnowNiner said:
So.....assuming I was going to believe south of I-40 would see any snow in April. "Assuming". What's with the bubble of cold air when up north is way above freezing? It doesn't cut off. Doesn't look like a standard CAD situation, though I see the high over the Carolinas. How'd it get so cold? View attachment 4903
Click to expand...
Dynamic cooling and layer lifting (expansion so cooling), evaporative cooling as the first hydrometeors fall into the sub saturated layer, melting from both the snow that’s falling aloft into the warmer BL and whatever managed to stick to the ground, and sensible heat transfer towards the surface from cool hydrometeors falling into a relatively warmer BL. Just like we saw in the last storm here on March 24-25, a mesoscale surface high developed over the VA border counties as a hydrostatic adjustment to snow that had already fallen and accumulated or in laymen because the air there was cooler and denser than surrounding locations in both NC and VA that didn’t see snow. Not saying that’s going to happen here but I just wanted to explain what happened and could occur again if we get all of our ducks in a row and hit the lottery
 
GaWx said:
The last 2 GFS runs have had an amazingly cold measurable rain for this Saturday afternoon/evening 4/7 for the SAV-CHS corridor (coldest of the rain with mid 30s-40!!!), the likes of which haven't even been that close to having occurred in April since 1915 based on my looking back at all of the Aprils back to then! Yes, that's 103 years ago. So, essentially what I'm saying is that the last 2 GFS runs have shown a once in 100 or so year event as far as the coldness of the rain in April for the SAV-CHS corridor! Combining that with the fact that these runs are significantly colder than overall model consensus for that area, the percentage chance at a bust is obviously very high for that area. But let's suppose these GFS runs were to somehow have the right idea. In that case, we'd be looking at an extremely rare April wx event in the SAV-CHS corridor, the likes of which would allow one to tell your grand and great grandchildren about the great cold rain of April of 2018 as it could easily not happen again before 2100!

I'm not betting on this at all. However, if it were to occur, you can bet this is the kind of extreme wx event I would always remember as I'd appreciate the rarity of it. (Aside: these last 2 GFS runs also have a significant ZR/IP on 4/7 at Columbia as has been noted by others).
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I bet this storm would create lots of new weather enthusiasts if it were to happen.

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Wish it could get little more south, so I can chase. In my 20 plus years of chasing I've nevered chased a April winterstorm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Dynamic cooling and layer lifting (expansion so cooling), evaporative cooling as the first hydrometeors fall into the sub saturated layer, melting from both the snow that’s falling aloft into the warmer BL and whatever managed to stick to the ground, and sensible heat transfer towards the surface from cool hydrometeors falling into a relatively warmer BL. Just like we saw in the last storm here on March 24-25, a mesoscale surface high developed over the VA border counties as a hydrostatic adjustment to snow that had already fallen and accumulated or in laymen because the air there was cooler and denser than surrounding locations in both NC and VA that didn’t see snow. Not saying that’s going to happen here but I just wanted to explain what happened and could occur again if we get all of our ducks in a row and hit the lottery
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Thanks Webb, that sounds as complicated as you'd think an April snowstorm in the south would be! Over/under on whether anything frozen shows up on any afternoon model runs south of the VA border? 3:1?
 
Looking back at ATL Aprils since records started in 1879, I can't find ANY measurable ZR.

Edit: However, there have been 11 Aprils since 1890 with at least a T of SN or IP. Three of those were measurable.
 
SimeonNC said:
Watch the storm go poof on the 12z runs.

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I'd rather it go poof now instead of Friday lol.... it's like watching your favorite sports team come back from a huge deficit only to still lose, get blown out early that way I have no interest.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The system has existed on several runs for days now, but only has trended south more. Could go south even more or stay in place and vary in temp.
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It would be funny if it ended up being suppressed to Florida as a cold rainstorm.

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metwannabe said:
I'd rather it go poof now instead of Friday lol.... it's like watching your favorite sports team come back from a huge deficit only to still lose, get blown out early that way I have no interest.
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Lol you mean the Carolina Hurricanes? Make a huge late season run every year just to barely miss the post season
 
I’m so over winter and was hoping to plant my garden this weekend


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Just to get a scope of how rare it is but can happen aspect...

April 2nd, 1915 - 10 inches of snow at Raleigh NC (record for April).

April 2nd-5th, 1987 - Record cold in Florida. 48 at Key West was a record by 13 degrees. 31 at Tallahassee. A late-season snowstorm set many snow records from parts of the South to eastern Ohio. NC's state storm record of 60" was set at Newfound Gap. (Tied 5 years later on May 7th-9th, 1992 at Mt. Pisgah). Alabama records set for April: 6" at Birmingham (3rd) and Mobile's first time snow flurries (3rd).

April 5th, 1849 - 3 inches of snow in Columbia SC fell two weeks later than any previous record late freeze.

April 13th, 1857 - Parts of Alabama received a surprise 4-inch dusting of snow in a late season snow and frost in the year that saw April snow in every state in the United States.

April 16th, 1849 - A severe freeze killed cotton from Texas into Georgia. Snow covered the ground at Charleston, SC.

April 25th, 1910 - Snow has been reported only once in Florida in April. However, a few flakes which is officially a trace of snow were observed at Pensacola. This record is more amazing since the snowflakes fell near the end of the month and not the beginning.
 
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