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Wintry April Fools? (1-2) Surprise Storm

Webberweather53 said:
Our dews in Charlotte are only running 10F lower than forecast by the 12z & 18z NAM. No biggie!

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Same here in Spartanburg our dew point on the NAM 3km said dew point is 24 and the NAM 12km said it was 22 but our dew point is currently at 12 degrees.
 
Wet bulbs are currently in the mid to upper 30's across most of western NC. Let's see how fast the temp can drop once the sun sets. That will say a lot as to how things evolve tonight and tomorrow morning.
 
Hrrr just dumps southern NC Piedmont with heavy wet snow, precip shield will probably go more west as time goes by, getting ULL vibes 1F55A540-47FE-4AD6-8B86-5454EE907408.gif
 
Not seeing many if any models that have precip over Louisiana. If they do they seem to dry up then re-form over Georgia.
 
I think the deep reds and oranges we are seeing on future maps will be SLEET or melting aloft. Lots of dry air tells me less rain and more sleet. With that said, certainly very heavy rain for coastal and eastern areas.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hrrr actually has been shifting the precip sheild east, low looks the same, I wonder why
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Also looks to be raising the initial dew points which it weird because its previous dew points were colder than the current run and even those were too warm.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hrrr actually has been shifting the precip sheild east, low looks the same, I wonder why
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It seems to be struggling some with the consolidation of the LP, I've noticed it has been bouncing around some with that in recent runs and that's likely part of the reason why. However, the 21z RAP was a huge shift from it's previous runs in regards to qpf and snow totals.
 
snowlover91 said:
It seems to be struggling some with the consolidation of the LP, I've noticed it has been bouncing around some with that in recent runs and that's likely part of the reason why. However, the 21z RAP was a huge shift from it's previous runs in regards to qpf and snow totals.
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I know that the Hrrr isn't that reliable but idk how reliable the RAP is. If it's a reliable model that could be an issue. Could someone tell me how reliable the RAP is?
 
22z RAP and HRRR QPF. Still time for things to change but this is a pretty sharp cutoff for the areas cold enough to see snow.

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Ethan80963 said:
I know that the Hrrr isn't that reliable but idk how reliable the RAP is. If it's a reliable model that could be an issue. Could someone tell me how reliable the RAP is?
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The RAP in my experience isn't very reliable especially in the extended range but it is useful for trends.. Same can be said for the HRRR. Inside 8-10 hours both of them can be pretty solid for events like this but right now the key to watch is for overall trends in the qpf field.
 
snowlover91 said:
The RAP in my experience isn't very reliable especially in the extended range but it is useful for trends.. Same can be said for the HRRR. Inside 8-10 hours both of them can be pretty solid for events like this but right now the key to watch is for overall trends in the qpf field.
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Didn't you just get into an argument earlier and were slammed for saying significant precip wouldn't make it to 85? You may win after all.
 
It's now-cast time folks. We will not know where that cut-off line is going to be until it actually sets up. It will be interesting to see where, in the southeast, that first report of frozen precip comes from. What a way to start Spring!
 
snowlover91 said:
The RAP in my experience isn't very reliable especially in the extended range but it is useful for trends.. Same can be said for the HRRR. Inside 8-10 hours both of them can be pretty solid for events like this but right now the key to watch is for overall trends in the qpf field.
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And see I would be kind of iffy about this but seeing as how moisture is already formed in Louisiana and looking pretty health I wouldn't be relying on their QPF maps that much unless those storms really started to fall apart. IMO
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Didn't you just get into an argument earlier and were slammed for saying significant precip wouldn't make it to 85? You may win after all.
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Well I'd rather be wrong and folks out west see a nice snow event but there have been some red flags on this event that has me cautious. The qpf output is everywhere right now with models but recent trends have not been good. We need to see what the 00z model guidance shows and how radar develops overnight, I do think the cutoff on this will be quite sharp on the NW edge of the precipitation shield.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yep last 4 runs. We are starting to get to the point where the HRRR needs to be watched for further trends. If the 00z models come south that will give it some validity.
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Also keeps weakening the low, but still don't know about it's credibility something about it just seems weird.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yep last 4 runs. We are starting to get to the point where the HRRR needs to be watched for further trends. If the 00z models come south that will give it some validity.
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I wonder whether this is the HRRR yanking the rug only to slowly improve under 10 hours, it did that with the coastal back in early March in ENC, but this time is a bit different, anyways I feel like the hrrr will come back west but if it continues to move east we’re losing wiggle room..... ofc if NAM still looks ok I’m fine
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
It's now-cast time folks. We will not know where that cut-off line is going to be until it actually sets up. It will be interesting to see where, in the southeast, that first report of frozen precip comes from. What a way to start Spring!
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East Texas reported wintery mix early today. Another reason to believe sleet will occur before rain in places like Georgia, SC and NC given the dry air.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I wonder whether this is the HRRR yanking the rug only to slowly improve under 10 hours, it did that with the coastal back in early March in ENC, but this time is a bit different, anyways I feel like the hrrr will come back west but if it continues to move east we’re losing wiggle room..... ofc if NAM still looks ok I’m fine
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Yeah it’s hard to know in between hours, we are sort of in “no mans land” where we don’t have much real time analysis of radar to help, no 00z runs yet and only the rap/hrrr to watch. Something changed significantly on the 21z runs of the RAP/HRRR as they were both significantly drier and SE with things.

Anyone have the 18z Euro or EPS? Curious to see if they changed any?
 
Well looking at the euro SN map it looked a tad east but that's all I could see.
 
I did a test with modeling close to an event not too long ago to see which model performed best with precipitation totals around the Midlands. here is the post, but in summary:

The RAP performed best with the OP ECMWF right with it.
The HRRR and 3KM NAM performed the worst.
 
Well with the 18z euro sliding east It may also be picking up the dry air in place too. HRRR May be on to something. Finer details won’t be known until the precip forms in Georgia.
 
Shawn said:
I did a test with modeling close to an event not too long ago to see which model performed best with precipitation totals around the Midlands. here is the post, but in summary:

The RAP performed best with the OP ECMWF right with it.
The HRRR and 3KM NAM performed the worst.
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Maybe this would be another good one to do a test on? It’s interesting since the HRRR and RAP are pretty similar this time while the Euro is much more expansive with the precip.
 
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