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Pattern April Chasing ???⛈⛈⛈

metwannabe said:
I see SPC has gone marginal here now.... see how things progress over next day or 2


Hmmm...

...Carolinas through Virginia...

Models have converged on similar solutions regarding evolution of
synoptic environment. Southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast
to deamplify over the Carolinas and become absorbed within an
amplifying northern-stream trough. Moistening warm sector with
dewpoints in the low 60s F will advect inland resulting in marginal
instability, and storms may develop in warm sector as well as along
cold front as it advances eastward during the day. Strengthening
low-mid level winds will support sufficient vertical shear for
organized storms with damaging wind and a couple tornadoes the main
threats. A SLGT risk might eventually be needed over a portion of
this area, but due to lingering uncertainties regarding details of
the convective evolution, will introduce a MRGL risk category this
update.

View attachment 19321
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Interesting little setup here to be honest. Just not sure what effect the initial southern stream wave will have and if we are left with clouds early Friday or too much subsidence and we can't get storms to pop with the second wave. Agree with spc about the convective evolution, not sure if we see one dominant line pushing west to east with a wind threat or if we see clusters/segments with a few supercells.

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The Friday front looks to be sprinkles at best around here! According to future radar/RPM! Robert starting to look like a genius!
 
Tomorrow, 4/25/19, marks the 109th anniversary of the incredible 1.5" of snow at Atlanta with a high of only 39!! Area further north got even more. Flurries fell as far south as Americus. Gainesville and Ocala fell to 39 on 4/26. For all we know, this could easily be a 500-1000 year type of storm for the area affected.
 
GaWx said:
Tomorrow, 4/25/19, marks the 109th anniversary of the incredible 1.5" of snow at Atlanta with a high of only 39!! Area further north got even more. Flurries fell as far south as Americus. Gainesville and Ocala fell to 39 on 4/26. For all we know, this could easily be a 500-1000 year type of storm for the area affected.
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With the humidity and suit on it felt like 109º today ... o_O
 
For your viewing pleasure, here's a 2 week centered (4 week total evolution) of the EPO & NAO composite evolution in DJF w/ over a 1000 EPO & NAO days below -1.0 sigma included.

I also threw in the PNA for good measure but truncated the composite animation at 2 weeks. The EPO evolves as expected w/ a ridge developing in the NE Pacific about 7-9 days before a -EPO peaks & this ridge retrogrades quickly towards Siberia, becoming a -WPO. The NAO in contrast develops virtually in-situ from cyclonic wave breaking in the North Atlantic jet w/ limited retrogression and -NAOs usually persist for a long time (when a decent one actually appears as noted by the -NAO anomalies already in place 2 weeks before the most negative NAO days & lasting long time thereafter.)
The PNA is often preceded by a -NAO/-WPO couplet with a prominent wave train emanating from the North Pacific, sometimes these west coast ridges will retrograde towards Alaska in the following week, becoming a -EPO.

Composite evolution of 1081 -EPO days in DJF whose amplitude was 1.0 sigma (or greater)
Webp.net-gifmaker-39.gif


Composite evolution of 1096 -NAO days in DJF that were at least of 1.0 sigma amplitude.

Webp.net-gifmaker-41.gif




Composite evolution of 1016 +PNA days in DJF that were at least of 1.0 sigma amplitude.


Webp.net-gifmaker-42.gif
 
Tomorrow doesn’t look that impressive here in Charlotte and we will probably be too far west for most of the action yet again. Expecting a passing thundershower or two here preceded by lots of morning clouds and/or drizzle, Highway 1 corridor and points east with better diurnal timing will probably face a better shot to pick up a strong storm or two
 
Things really weakened as they moved through Central AL. Just some steady rain and no thunder. Good for my lawn that was treated yesterday.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Tomorrow doesn’t look that impressive here in Charlotte and we will probably be too far west for most of the action yet again. Expecting a passing thundershower or two here preceded by lots of morning clouds and/or drizzle, Highway 1 corridor and points east with better diurnal timing will probably face a better shot to pick up a strong storm or two
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Tomorrow's slight risk is pretty representative of the probability distribution for slight risks in central & eastern NC w/ areas near & east of HWY 1 favored.

NC_swody2.png


p_1.C.16__level_CATEGORICAL.SLGT__t_state__network_WFO__station_DMX__csector_NC__drawc_yes__dp...png
 
metwannabe said:
Here's to hoping the NAM is just being the NAM with these possible discrete cells out ahead of the main line..

View attachment 19331

View attachment 19330
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Supports hailers (storms that produce lots of peas sized hail) aswell with a decently cool column (700-500) hPa and decent amounts of 0-6km bulk shear, also supports strong winds, sounding does support tornadoes aswell with backing sfc winds, but llvl shear is nearly 20kts weaker than last week
 
Should we have a thread for tomorrow's possible severe threat?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Tornado Warning. Im in the basement !
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:(
... but just to keep your humor up ...

Johnny's in the basement
Mixing up the medicine
I'm on the pavement
Thinkin' about the government

Look out kid
It's somethin' you did
God knows when
But you're doin' it again
You better duck down the alley way

Look out kid
Don't matter what you did
Walk on your tip toes
Don't tie no bows
Better stay away from those
That carry 'round a fire hose
Keep a clean nose
Watch the plain clothes
You don't need a weather man
To know which way the wind blows
 
Looks like the storms are starting early today. Just received an alert for lightning 6 miles from my location.
 
Might get a few gusty storms today but the main action is probably going to be north of us
 
SD said:
Dang really backing low level winds

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Yeah thankfully things don't look as impressive this morning around here anyway

Once the junk convection moves out this morning will be interesting to see how much sun and what SBCAPE looks like, main issue against storms looks to be meager low level moisture. Heck some CAMS keep DP's around 60, not a juiced atmosphere for sure
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah thankfully things don't look as impressive this morning around here anyway

Once the junk convection moves out this morning will be interesting to see how much sun and what SBCAPE looks like, main issue against storms looks to be meager low level moisture. Heck some CAMS keep DP's around 60, not a juiced atmosphere for sure
Click to expand...

Feels nice outside.


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metwannabe said:
Yeah thankfully things don't look as impressive this morning around here anyway

Once the junk convection moves out this morning will be interesting to see how much sun and what SBCAPE looks like, main issue against storms looks to be meager low level moisture. Heck some CAMS keep DP's around 60, not a juiced atmosphere for sure
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Well, we had a quick shower move through here, and now the sun is peeking out.
 
Not often you see the hrrr show a outflow boundary just like that, but there’s a lot of dry air aloft, strong outflow winds/isolated microbursts with some hail seem possible 397EA18F-B025-4D34-8AF9-E6716D1A4679.png4D3516A8-7A7D-42B0-AC92-5AF88EA67C00.jpeg
 
Central NC needs the rain. After last week's forecast of severe weather, and only getting a brief shower out of it, hopefully this line that moves through later will produce enough to moisten the ground. The clay around here is getting dusty.
 
Nice line downeast right now and most models not real impressed with the line later for central NC..... we shall see but I'm having doubts about too many storms around here now
 
Some small activity trying to get going but looks like most of the action will be north (enhanced for that region now)

1556296920358.png
 
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