• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern April Chasing ???⛈⛈⛈

metwannabe said:
I see SPC has gone marginal here now.... see how things progress over next day or 2


Hmmm...

...Carolinas through Virginia...

Models have converged on similar solutions regarding evolution of
synoptic environment. Southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast
to deamplify over the Carolinas and become absorbed within an
amplifying northern-stream trough. Moistening warm sector with
dewpoints in the low 60s F will advect inland resulting in marginal
instability, and storms may develop in warm sector as well as along
cold front as it advances eastward during the day. Strengthening
low-mid level winds will support sufficient vertical shear for
organized storms with damaging wind and a couple tornadoes the main
threats. A SLGT risk might eventually be needed over a portion of
this area, but due to lingering uncertainties regarding details of
the convective evolution, will introduce a MRGL risk category this
update.

View attachment 19321
Click to expand...
Interesting little setup here to be honest. Just not sure what effect the initial southern stream wave will have and if we are left with clouds early Friday or too much subsidence and we can't get storms to pop with the second wave. Agree with spc about the convective evolution, not sure if we see one dominant line pushing west to east with a wind threat or if we see clusters/segments with a few supercells.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
The Friday front looks to be sprinkles at best around here! According to future radar/RPM! Robert starting to look like a genius!
 
Tomorrow, 4/25/19, marks the 109th anniversary of the incredible 1.5" of snow at Atlanta with a high of only 39!! Area further north got even more. Flurries fell as far south as Americus. Gainesville and Ocala fell to 39 on 4/26. For all we know, this could easily be a 500-1000 year type of storm for the area affected.
 
GaWx said:
Tomorrow, 4/25/19, marks the 109th anniversary of the incredible 1.5" of snow at Atlanta with a high of only 39!! Area further north got even more. Flurries fell as far south as Americus. Gainesville and Ocala fell to 39 on 4/26. For all we know, this could easily be a 500-1000 year type of storm for the area affected.
Click to expand...
With the humidity and suit on it felt like 109º today ... o_O
 
For your viewing pleasure, here's a 2 week centered (4 week total evolution) of the EPO & NAO composite evolution in DJF w/ over a 1000 EPO & NAO days below -1.0 sigma included.

I also threw in the PNA for good measure but truncated the composite animation at 2 weeks. The EPO evolves as expected w/ a ridge developing in the NE Pacific about 7-9 days before a -EPO peaks & this ridge retrogrades quickly towards Siberia, becoming a -WPO. The NAO in contrast develops virtually in-situ from cyclonic wave breaking in the North Atlantic jet w/ limited retrogression and -NAOs usually persist for a long time (when a decent one actually appears as noted by the -NAO anomalies already in place 2 weeks before the most negative NAO days & lasting long time thereafter.)
The PNA is often preceded by a -NAO/-WPO couplet with a prominent wave train emanating from the North Pacific, sometimes these west coast ridges will retrograde towards Alaska in the following week, becoming a -EPO.

Composite evolution of 1081 -EPO days in DJF whose amplitude was 1.0 sigma (or greater)
Webp.net-gifmaker-39.gif


Composite evolution of 1096 -NAO days in DJF that were at least of 1.0 sigma amplitude.

Webp.net-gifmaker-41.gif




Composite evolution of 1016 +PNA days in DJF that were at least of 1.0 sigma amplitude.


Webp.net-gifmaker-42.gif
 
Tomorrow doesn’t look that impressive here in Charlotte and we will probably be too far west for most of the action yet again. Expecting a passing thundershower or two here preceded by lots of morning clouds and/or drizzle, Highway 1 corridor and points east with better diurnal timing will probably face a better shot to pick up a strong storm or two
 
Webberweather53 said:
Tomorrow doesn’t look that impressive here in Charlotte and we will probably be too far west for most of the action yet again. Expecting a passing thundershower or two here preceded by lots of morning clouds and/or drizzle, Highway 1 corridor and points east with better diurnal timing will probably face a better shot to pick up a strong storm or two
Click to expand...

Tomorrow's slight risk is pretty representative of the probability distribution for slight risks in central & eastern NC w/ areas near & east of HWY 1 favored.

NC_swody2.png


p_1.C.16__level_CATEGORICAL.SLGT__t_state__network_WFO__station_DMX__csector_NC__drawc_yes__dp...png
 
metwannabe said:
Here's to hoping the NAM is just being the NAM with these possible discrete cells out ahead of the main line..

View attachment 19331

View attachment 19330
Click to expand...

Supports hailers (storms that produce lots of peas sized hail) aswell with a decently cool column (700-500) hPa and decent amounts of 0-6km bulk shear, also supports strong winds, sounding does support tornadoes aswell with backing sfc winds, but llvl shear is nearly 20kts weaker than last week
 
Should we have a thread for tomorrow's possible severe threat?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top