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Pattern April Chasing ???⛈⛈⛈

Lol CLOWN MAP FROM FV3 ... these next few weeks are going to wild in terms of extreme weather I believe
 

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Didn't want to clutter up the storm threads with this, but I am really worried about the severe threats this weekend and the middle of next week. Especially for the middle of next week, since it could possibly happen in my backyard. I just have a feeling these will be bad because of the timing being about the same time of the April 2011 outbreak, and for some reason a lot of bad things seem to happen in April, especially between the 15th and 30th.
 
For those interested, I just updated my NCEP-NCAR MEI index for February-March. This is the 2nd month in a row that the bi-monthly Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) rankings were in moderate El Nino territory. Outgoing Longwave Radiation was most supportive of an El Nino in Feb-Mar w/ the EOF reaching nearly +1.5 sigma. Interested to see how long this El Nino persists into the spring & summer.

NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis MEI Time Series Jan 1948-Mar 2019.png

https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html
 
Brick Tamland said:
Didn't want to clutter up the storm threads with this, but I am really worried about the severe threats this weekend and the middle of next week. Especially for the middle of next week, since it could possibly happen in my backyard. I just have a feeling these will be bad because of the timing being about the same time of the April 2011 outbreak, and for some reason a lot of bad things seem to happen in April, especially between the 15th and 30th.
Click to expand...
I don't see it for us yet.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Brick Tamland said:
Didn't want to clutter up the storm threads with this, but I am really worried about the severe threats this weekend and the middle of next week. Especially for the middle of next week, since it could possibly happen in my backyard. I just have a feeling these will be bad because of the timing being about the same time of the April 2011 outbreak, and for some reason a lot of bad things seem to happen in April, especially between the 15th and 30th.
Click to expand...

I’d be worried about isolated pulse storms at this time, needa hope and pray for areas with a tornado threat to our west these upcoming days that things don’t get bad
 
12Z GFS has much of the SE colder than normal most of 4/19-26 though with no freezes to worry about. Lots of lows in the 40s.

*edited*
 
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18z hrrr is very aggressive with discreet cells across NC tmrw with a sounding that could support some weak super-cellular structure and a spin up or two..

Of course its the hrrr. 01206D09-2742-4288-9DE1-4155B84087C2.png27D0695D-5187-49EA-BEFD-B232984D087D.png
 
3km sounding out in front of cells moving into Central NC tmrw afternoon is also supportive of some weak super-cellular activity.

Will come down to initiation and if any cells can get established. Will be a small window late afternoon tomorrow in Central NC.

5BDEE6F2-8A85-4D8F-9D81-C64E9218D8D4.png
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Lol CLOWN MAP FROM FV3 ... these next few weeks are going to wild in terms of extreme weather I believe
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they really should just scrap that FV3. i made the mistake of showing my daughter how to pull it up and i've had to answer since December why we aren't getting all that snow it forecasted, and now i'm going to have to explain away April 21. I may have to call my congressman.
 
NGTim said:
they really should just scrap that FV3. i made the mistake of showing my daughter how to pull it up and i've had to answer since December why we aren't getting all that snow it forecasted, and now i'm going to have to explain away April 21. I may have to call my congressman.
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Trump could do it, himself. Rumor has it he hates the FV3 because of the cold bias and loves the old GFS. Had he not allowed the govt shutdown, the FV3 might already be operational. I think he wants to make the old GFS great again.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
3km sounding out in front of cells moving into Central NC tmrw afternoon is also supportive of some weak super-cellular activity.

Will come down to initiation and if any cells can get established. Will be a small window late afternoon tomorrow in Central NC.

View attachment 18761
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Yep, I’m assuming a little boundary will develop supporting elevated amounts of storm relative helicity, decent CAPE, low LCLs, gonna be some nice structures tommorow if these things can stay separated
 
I’m not making a thread on this because many people will probably find it as clutter, which I understand, but hrrr (trrrash) but still helpful I guess spits out supercells in NC tommorow, ones in eastern/central NC have higher helicity than the ones around CLT (90-120) here’s a sounding from my area (Salisbury) tommorow, soundings aren’t that supportive of tornadoes but more of a wind/hail threat but could support a spin up, especially areas to the east 6765485B-F1B3-414D-9B22-1257C53C13E5.jpegB631F745-8F22-474D-B532-39AF69A66A3D.png
 
The Big Wet just keeps rolling on around here. Ive never seen it as wet as it is in April right now. After 2 full days of sun, mower still spins in low areas. Looks like another 3 inches is in route for the weekend with more to follow middle next week.
 
I’ve had about .7 of rain in the past month. Drought creeping up in S Ga and S SC! Heading this way!
 
Latest hrrr continues to bring a line of supercells into Central NC
28A4C359-7B24-47A3-87F0-01BA4603ACE3.gif

This is a sounding in Wake county right in front of one of the supercells. This sounding is actually a decent sounding for a tornado today.

0C35D8B2-1A87-4545-B0F5-E4C334E3FFD5.png
 
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