Pattern Anaphylactic August

[Myfrotho704_]

The HRRR seems to be downplaying the storm coverage lately.


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Especially with nighttime convection

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Already full sun and no clouds on sight, could allow a few pockets of near 4500-5000 jkg of SBcape later

 

[Rain Cold]

Already full sun and no clouds on sight, could allow a few pockets of near 4500-5000 jkg of SBcape later

It's humid as a myfro here. Full sun!

 

[ForsythSnow]

There's already rain developing to my west. Maybe I'll get some early on and later too. I can't seem to get a good downpour.

 

[Metwannabe]

Honestly wouldn't be surprised to see a slight expansion of the slight risk area to the south.

Doesn't look as if they it expanded it any in their morning update... Wake Co. still the ever present dividing line

 

[Brick Tamland]

Still overcast in north Raleigh.

 

[SD]

Doesn't look as if they it expanded it any in their morning update... Wake Co. still the ever present dividing line

Should be a fun afternoon regardless. With the outflow moving south and the mid level flow SW to W we should see storms develop from N to S but cells generally move W to E which should lead to some nice rain totals. It also looks like somewhere either side of I40 may be a convergent axis for storms to fire ahead of the main show

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[Myfrotho704_]

Lots of low level shear right now, likely it won’t stay but if it would then there would be problems

 

[Metwannabe]

Should be a fun afternoon regardless. With the outflow moving south and the mid level flow SW to W we should see storms develop from N to S but cells generally move W to E which should lead to some nice rain totals. It also looks like somewhere either side of I40 may be a convergent axis for storms to fire ahead of the main show

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Yeah I'm actually thinking you guys might be in that sweet spot today..... good luck and may the fro be with you.

 

[SD]

Yeah I'm actually thinking you guys might be in that sweet spot today..... good luck and may the fro be with you.

I'm actually thinking the 2 maximums are at the borders between 40/Va and 74/SC with the minimum in the middle. I wouldn't be at all surprised to get 0, the front is slowing just enough that we are really relying on the outflow as the main driver. If that doesn't kick things off around or shortly after dark the front timing will be terribly bad

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[Brick Tamland]

I'm actually thinking the 2 maximums are at the borders between 40/Va and 74/SC with the minimum in the middle. I wouldn't be at all surprised to get 0, the front is slowing just enough that we are really relying on the outflow as the main driver. If that doesn't kick things off around or shortly after dark the front timing will be terribly bad

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If you take the HRRR and NAM into account, and go down the middle of the two, looks like right along 64 will be the sweet spot. Could be rocking between 40 and 64 in NC.

 

[ForsythSnow]

CAPE is up to 3000 jkg already here. We were only supposed to be around 1000 at this time.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CAPE is up to 3000 jkg already here. We were only supposed to be around 1000 at this time.

not suprised with lower freezing levels, and rich boundary layer moisture, also a nice saturated layer at the lower levels

 

[Brick Tamland]

Nothing but blue, sunny skies here now.

 

[Metwannabe]

Marginal expanded SW but slight remains unchanged...

 

[Metwannabe]

Dang... CAPE approaching 4000 j/kg

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

It's humid as a myfro here. Full sun!

We see what you did there....

 

[Brick Tamland]

Southern 2/3 of NC looks like a powder keg ready to blow today.

 

[Tarheel1]

It's humid as a myfro here. Full sun!

It still dry as Howie Mandel

 

[NorthDFWwx]

It still dry as Howie Mandel

Bobby's World was good.