Tropical 94L - PTC to be issued later today

[Mike_96]

This is a very touchy setup with this storm. Do not be surprised if there are still more shifts to come.

 

[Henry2326]

This is a very touchy setup with this storm. Do not be surprised if there are still more shifts to come.

Yep... NHC 5pm

"The NHC track forecast at days 4-5 maintains a
consensus approach and shows a slower eastward motion, but future track adjustments are likely as confidence increases."

 

[Henry2326]

For what it's worth, HMON has landfall at the GA/SC corner for the 5th run in a row.

 

[Mr.Kevin7575]

Guys, don't doubt the euro. I know it's isn't what it used to be, but it's still the best for a reason!

 

[Chazwin]

Euro firing warning shots about that kickback west at the end. 2nd run in a row

It’s a definite possibility if Humberto leaves it behind. I know someone was mentioning Dennis in 1999 that got left behind by a trough after moving parallel to the coast, sat southeast of Cape Hatteras for a few days before swing back west and landfalling near Myrtle Beach as a strong tropical storm

 

[rburrel2]

Is it actually a thing that the Hurricane models do a poor job initializing near by storms? If anything, I’d assume they do better with that compared to globals.

 

[Rain Cold]

If it gets left behind, the Euro shows some pretty stout ridging building in over top, which would force it back west for a while. It's a plausible solution.

Maybe it stays so weak and disorganized that it doesn't get pulled away as much by Humberto and stays closer to the coast. No model really shows that, though. And conditions don't really favor it.

I don't trust the Euro or the GFS, outside of 72 hours, tbh. Both got an absolute beat-down with this one.

Hurricane season is turning into winter. Go with the model that shows least snow. And go with the model that shows no landfall.

 

[jrips27]