Downeastnc
Member
Yeah recon is needed to see how well it's gotten organized but the sat loops are pretty convincing that it's close enough to get at least a PTC
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Tropical 92L
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I wonder if this really has already made it as far N as 30N as IR images are at least suggesting is possible. If so, it would appear to be tracking further N than progged (this loop ends at 10:35PM):
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah it's hard to say but the mlc does seem to have a wnw component for sure...
No recon till 8 am
, just starting to enter into extreme radar range
jeremyt
Member
Downeastnc
Member
Brent
Member
Super weak if there's anything there
It might steal Beryl but probably barely
It might steal Beryl but probably barely
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92L is now roughly centered over the Gulf Stream. So, SSTs have risen from yesterday’s ~81F to about the warmest to be crossed or in the 83-84F range. These warmest waters extend W to ~80 west long. Then they cool back to 81-2F to the coast.
Recon has been checking it out. I don’t know if they’re still there.
Recon has been checking it out. I don’t know if they’re still there.
Not quite as of yet:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1035 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special outlook issued to update discussion of the low pressure
system over the southwestern Atlantic (AL92).
Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Updated: Recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft and visible satellite imagery indicate that the area of
low pressure located about 120 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida,
has developed a well-defined center of circulation and is
producing winds to near 35 mph, but the associated showers and
thunderstorms are not quite organized enough for this system to be
considered a tropical cyclone. However, only a small increase in
the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in
the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it
reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight, and
interests there should monitor its progress. For more information,
refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Brent
Member
The NHC really does not want to upgrade this storm 
I guess this will settle the argument about naming too much stuff if they don't
I guess this will settle the argument about naming too much stuff if they don't
The NHC really does not want to upgrade this storm
I guess this will settle the argument about naming too much stuff if they don't
They could take the middle road and upgrade it to a TD and avoid the name.
There is new convection that has popped since the special TWO was released very close to the center, which is now over the Gulf Stream with its 83-84F SSTs:
Stormsfury
Member
We need two things to happen in the SE from now til Sunday.
We need this to increase moisture available to at least bring much needed rains to the area and 2) dirty up the ridge to help at least give the SE afternoon thunderstorm chances in light of what could be a ridiculous stretch of 100+ temperatures starting Monday thru Thursday (if the GFS/EURO temp outputs are close to being right).
It's literally rained solid only once locally in the last 4 weeks and that was with a destructive thunderstorm that I just missed the core of large hail and destructive winds that impacted parts of Summerville, Ladson and Goose Creek back on the 10th of June. (Hail @ around 2" with some scattered 2.5" reports) and an 80 to 85mph downburst.
We need this to increase moisture available to at least bring much needed rains to the area and 2) dirty up the ridge to help at least give the SE afternoon thunderstorm chances in light of what could be a ridiculous stretch of 100+ temperatures starting Monday thru Thursday (if the GFS/EURO temp outputs are close to being right).
It's literally rained solid only once locally in the last 4 weeks and that was with a destructive thunderstorm that I just missed the core of large hail and destructive winds that impacted parts of Summerville, Ladson and Goose Creek back on the 10th of June. (Hail @ around 2" with some scattered 2.5" reports) and an 80 to 85mph downburst.
If they don’t designate this as a TD, I won’t be surprised if this gets upgraded in the post tropical cyclone report.
BHS1975
Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Your post (image?) didn’t come through.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Satellite imagery and National Weather Service Doppler radar data
indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a
well-defined low pressure area centered about 80 miles
east-southeast of Brunswick, Georgia, continue to lack the necessary
organization for the low to be considered a tropical cyclone.
Recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that
winds to 35 mph are occurring in association with the low. Only a
small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms
could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression
before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia
tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress. For more
information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Satellite imagery and National Weather Service Doppler radar data
indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a
well-defined low pressure area centered about 80 miles
east-southeast of Brunswick, Georgia, continue to lack the necessary
organization for the low to be considered a tropical cyclone.
Recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that
winds to 35 mph are occurring in association with the low. Only a
small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms
could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression
before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia
tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress. For more
information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
lexxnchloe
Member
They can but it looks pretty bad and whatever weather it brings wont be a big deal. Maybe we can get a 1996 bertha type storm
I’ll pass on a Bertha type. Weak is fine with me! Regardless, a Bertha type or even worse is inevitable at some point. Hopefully no time soon!
One band of showers came through here during the last hour or so. The rain wasn’t heavy and it didn’t last long. Interesting to see and comment on nevertheless.
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