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Tropical 92L

Just based on the satellite presentation I wouldn't be surprised if this is td2. Seemingly a closed circulation with a persistent convective blob to the N of the circulation.
 
If that "cold front" and associated trough were a bit quicker in moving east, it might kick this potential tropical system in a more northerly direction and give NC/SC some of the rain it needs. As of now, it looks like whatever develops might be headed to the GA/FL border. I'm happy for the folks in that area, some of them could use the rain too.
 
SSTs near the LLC are ~81-82F but rise to ~84 in the Gulf Stream, which is centered near 80W where it is heading:

IMG_9789.gif
 
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Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92) Updated:
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates
that the small area of low pressure located about 150 miles
northeast of the northernmost Bahamas does not have a well-defined
surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally
conducive for further development and this system could become a
tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast
of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. Another Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance mission is planned for Thursday morning, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
 
SD said:
It's going to be interesting to see when the steering starts to collapse for this whether that's over S GA or just off shore. Then the ultimate fate of the remnant circulation and moisture plume
Click to expand...

Looks pretty decent right now all things considered. To bad it doesnt appear that it will do anything to help the building drought here.
 
Increased from 40% to 50%:

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has written the last advisory on the
remnants of Alberto, which are located inland over northeastern
Mexico.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated with the
area of low pressure located about 175 miles north-northeast of the
northern Bahamas has become a little better organized during the
past 24 hours. However, earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data indicated that the system does not have a well-defined
circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive
for additional development and this system could become a tropical
depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida
or the Georgia coast early on Friday, and interests there should
monitor the progress of the system. Another Air Force Reserve
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday morning,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Hmmm…this is from 8:36PM EDT: I don’t know if that deepest convection is near the center, but if it is or if the center has jumped westward to it, it likely is getting better organized. And this is not far after DMIN:
IMG_9790.jpeg
 
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To add to the above, it is headed toward significantly warmer SSTs in the Gulf Stream. SSTs where it is now (near 29N, 77W) are only ~80.5 F, but they rise to a peak of ~84 F in the Gulf Stream.
 
So this is supposed to get shunted S and SE, and not give y’all any drought relief?? That’s odd
 
GaWx said:
Hmmm…this is from 8:36PM EDT: I don’t know if that deepest convection is near the center, but if it is or if the center has jumped westward to it, it likely is getting better organized. And this is not far after DMIN:
View attachment 148053
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It's got a nice flare up under way...deep convection and it does appear slightly more stacked might try to do something crazy and get named.

 
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GaWx said:
Here’s what the 18Z GFS had for the 9PM EDT IR satellite view:
View attachment 148055

Compare that to an actual 9PM IR satellite pic: not even close
View attachment 148056
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Yeah I'm kind of surprised the NHC hasn't upgraded... Or at least a PTC given warnings are needed now

Fair the recon didn't actually find a center entirely but it's definitely improved since then
 
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