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Tropical 92L

Just based on the satellite presentation I wouldn't be surprised if this is td2. Seemingly a closed circulation with a persistent convective blob to the N of the circulation.
 
If that "cold front" and associated trough were a bit quicker in moving east, it might kick this potential tropical system in a more northerly direction and give NC/SC some of the rain it needs. As of now, it looks like whatever develops might be headed to the GA/FL border. I'm happy for the folks in that area, some of them could use the rain too.
 
SSTs near the LLC are ~81-82F but rise to ~84 in the Gulf Stream, which is centered near 80W where it is heading:

IMG_9789.gif
 
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Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92) Updated:
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates
that the small area of low pressure located about 150 miles
northeast of the northernmost Bahamas does not have a well-defined
surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally
conducive for further development and this system could become a
tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast
of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. Another Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance mission is planned for Thursday morning, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
 
SD said:
It's going to be interesting to see when the steering starts to collapse for this whether that's over S GA or just off shore. Then the ultimate fate of the remnant circulation and moisture plume
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Looks pretty decent right now all things considered. To bad it doesnt appear that it will do anything to help the building drought here.
 
Increased from 40% to 50%:

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has written the last advisory on the
remnants of Alberto, which are located inland over northeastern
Mexico.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated with the
area of low pressure located about 175 miles north-northeast of the
northern Bahamas has become a little better organized during the
past 24 hours. However, earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data indicated that the system does not have a well-defined
circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive
for additional development and this system could become a tropical
depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida
or the Georgia coast early on Friday, and interests there should
monitor the progress of the system. Another Air Force Reserve
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday morning,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Hmmm…this is from 8:36PM EDT: I don’t know if that deepest convection is near the center, but if it is or if the center has jumped westward to it, it likely is getting better organized. And this is not far after DMIN:
IMG_9790.jpeg
 
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To add to the above, it is headed toward significantly warmer SSTs in the Gulf Stream. SSTs where it is now (near 29N, 77W) are only ~80.5 F, but they rise to a peak of ~84 F in the Gulf Stream.
 
So this is supposed to get shunted S and SE, and not give y’all any drought relief?? That’s odd
 
GaWx said:
Hmmm…this is from 8:36PM EDT: I don’t know if that deepest convection is near the center, but if it is or if the center has jumped westward to it, it likely is getting better organized. And this is not far after DMIN:
View attachment 148053
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It's got a nice flare up under way...deep convection and it does appear slightly more stacked might try to do something crazy and get named.

 
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GaWx said:
Here’s what the 18Z GFS had for the 9PM EDT IR satellite view:
View attachment 148055

Compare that to an actual 9PM IR satellite pic: not even close
View attachment 148056
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Yeah I'm kind of surprised the NHC hasn't upgraded... Or at least a PTC given warnings are needed now

Fair the recon didn't actually find a center entirely but it's definitely improved since then
 
Brent said:
Yeah I'm kind of surprised the NHC hasn't upgraded... Or at least a PTC given warnings are needed now

Fair the recon didn't actually find a center entirely but it's definitely improved since then
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Yeah recon is needed to see how well it's gotten organized but the sat loops are pretty convincing that it's close enough to get at least a PTC
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah recon is needed to see how well it's gotten organized but the sat loops are pretty convincing that it's close enough to get at least a PTC
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I wonder if this really has already made it as far N as 30N as IR images are at least suggesting is possible. If so, it would appear to be tracking further N than progged (this loop ends at 10:35PM):

IMG_9796.gif
 
GaWx said:
I wonder if this really has already made it as far N as 30N as IR images are at least suggesting is possible. If so, it would appear to be tracking further N than progged
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Yeah it's hard to say but the mlc does seem to have a wnw component for sure...

No recon till 8 am 😞, just starting to enter into extreme radar range

Screenshot_20240621_002142_RadarScope.jpg
 
SD said:
A lot of models are bringing the high pwats/ moisture envelope into our area from this. I think the nam had pwats over 2 on soundings.
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I need it to shift a little bit more west. Been bone dry here in Union County the past month. I know we all need it and hope some of us can cash out on it.
 
92L is now roughly centered over the Gulf Stream. So, SSTs have risen from yesterday’s ~81F to about the warmest to be crossed or in the 83-84F range. These warmest waters extend W to ~80 west long. Then they cool back to 81-2F to the coast.
Recon has been checking it out. I don’t know if they’re still there.
 
Per recon center fix of 30.3N, 79.5W, center is on the far N edge of the main convection. Is this organized enough to warrant TD status?
 
GaWx said:
Per recon center fix of 30.3N, 79.5W, center is on the far N edge of the main convection. Is this organized enough to warrant TD status?
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Not quite as of yet:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1035 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the low pressure
system over the southwestern Atlantic (AL92).

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Updated: Recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft and visible satellite imagery indicate that the area of
low pressure located about 120 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida,
has developed a well-defined center of circulation and is
producing winds to near 35 mph, but the associated showers and
thunderstorms are not quite organized enough for this system to be
considered a tropical cyclone. However, only a small increase in
the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in
the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it
reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight, and
interests there should monitor its progress. For more information,
refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
 
Brent said:
The NHC really does not want to upgrade this storm 😂

I guess this will settle the argument about naming too much stuff if they don't
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They could take the middle road and upgrade it to a TD and avoid the name.

There is new convection that has popped since the special TWO was released very close to the center, which is now over the Gulf Stream with its 83-84F SSTs:

IMG_9797.jpeg
 
We need two things to happen in the SE from now til Sunday.

We need this to increase moisture available to at least bring much needed rains to the area and 2) dirty up the ridge to help at least give the SE afternoon thunderstorm chances in light of what could be a ridiculous stretch of 100+ temperatures starting Monday thru Thursday (if the GFS/EURO temp outputs are close to being right).

It's literally rained solid only once locally in the last 4 weeks and that was with a destructive thunderstorm that I just missed the core of large hail and destructive winds that impacted parts of Summerville, Ladson and Goose Creek back on the 10th of June. (Hail @ around 2" with some scattered 2.5" reports) and an 80 to 85mph downburst.
 
GaWx said:
They could take the middle road and upgrade it to a TD and avoid the name.

There is new convection that has popped since the special TWO was released very close to the center, which is now over the Gulf Stream with its 83-84F SSTs:

View attachment 148061
Click to expand...
If they don’t designate this as a TD, I won’t be surprised if this gets upgraded in the post tropical cyclone report.
 
Update per 11:19AM recon data: you can see that new convection close to the center with S shear still evident. Even with shear seems worthy of TD upgrade imo but NHC folks are the experts:

IMG_9798.png
 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Satellite imagery and National Weather Service Doppler radar data
indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a
well-defined low pressure area centered about 80 miles
east-southeast of Brunswick, Georgia, continue to lack the necessary
organization for the low to be considered a tropical cyclone.
Recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that
winds to 35 mph are occurring in association with the low. Only a
small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms
could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression
before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia
tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress. For more
information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
 
lexxnchloe said:
They can but it looks pretty bad and whatever weather it brings wont be a big deal. Maybe we can get a 1996 bertha type storm
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I’ll pass on a Bertha type. Weak is fine with me! Regardless, a Bertha type or even worse is inevitable at some point. Hopefully no time soon!
One band of showers came through here during the last hour or so. The rain wasn’t heavy and it didn’t last long. Interesting to see and comment on nevertheless.
 
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