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5/18/20 - 5/23/20 Upper Low Flooding & Severe Threat

Tempted to ride my bike down to the beach and look for waterspouts. This is prime time. Perfect conditions FE96D521-AE15-4EB6-A858-758BE878631F.jpeg
 
Stormsfury said:
NWS Employee Steven Tyler was on the backside of the circulation and has reported trees down on Maybank highway in John Island per WCBD-TV 2 (Rob Fowler)

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I’m at Kiawah for the week. It’s amazing how the immediate coast is spared from these types of storms. Really interested in these waterspouts though
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m at Kiawah for the week. It’s amazing how the immediate coast is spared from these types of storms. Really interested in these waterspouts though
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Storm trajectory and marine influence usually plays a part in that. I was completely caught off guard this was occurring until m stepbrother said something.

This obviously had the shear, quite evident in the westerly low level cloud movement but that warm front really triggered cyclonegenesis of this cell. Unusual for here
 
Still gusty. If the rain ever makes it north of Charlotte I can see some power outages tonight for places like Iredell, Yadkin, Surry and Forsyth. NWS said the cold air is destroying convection but haven’t mentioned if the wind is also playing a role in reducing rain coverage.
 
KyloG said:
Can we drizzle our way to 2" of rain the next 24-36 hours....I assume we are hoping that band in SC works its way in here.

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Looks like it's set in now. Fetch of moisture off of the Atlantic developing into a band of rain, pointed this way. Solid rain rates now under a big layer of nimbostratus.
 
Looking like there is going to be some real focus of banding and precip in central NC from all the short range guidance I’ve seen ... radar is going to be looking very interesting next day or so
 
The German model is a crush job.
 
SD said:
It actually rained hard here for a few minutes
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I'm noticing the rain is somewhat heavier than you would think based on returns. Sometimes even under clear radars I have a small beady tropical type rain. Millions of tiny drops, heavier than a hard drizzle.
 
3.17 total, this is just a straight-up weird event. Almost tropical storm-like squall lines (minus the wind), oh and its 50F on may 20th
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Looking like there is going to be some real focus of banding and precip in central NC from all the short range guidance I’ve seen ... radar is going to be looking very interesting next day or so
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There's going to be strong near-surface frontogenesis over the eastern piedmont & west-central coastal plain driven largely by strong low-level convergence at the edge of the CAD dome as it merges with a weak surface trough leftover from today's precipitation.

You can clearly see that here on the 3km NAM forecast, respectable NE winds of up to 15 knots over the north-central coastal plain decelerate to 7-10 m/s in the Pee Dee region of SC. This cause air to pile up (& rise) in between somewhere in the vicinity of the HWY 421 corridor (Wilmington-Fayetteville-Sanford, etc).

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Wet snow this morning per Raysweather on Mount Mitchell. Rain is here now in Wilkes but I doubt it stays long. Maybe till 6 before clearing.
 
So other than current band overhead i77 tonight shouldn’t be as heavy as originally expected. Just showery without heavy convection.
 
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