Mesoscale Discussion 0415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Areas affected...Portions of east-central GA into SC
Concerning...Tornado Watch
96...
98...
Valid 052022Z - 052145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 96, 98 continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest threat for strong tornadoes should focus
across parts of east-central Georgia into South Carolina over the
next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Multiple tornadic circulations with TDS markers have
recently been observed from the KJGX radar with a broken line of
storms in central GA. A separate TDS and very strong low-level
rotation was also noted earlier with a supercell over Allendale
County SC. The core of a 40-50 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet
overlies this region, and ample low-level shear is present to
support updraft rotation and tornado potential. The northern extent
of the surface-based thunderstorm and substantial tornado threat
will likely be constrained by a surface warm front that is draped
southwest to northeast across central SC. The presence of mid to
upper 60s and even some low 70s surface dewpoints with filtered
diurnal heating is supporting MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg, which is
more than sufficient for surface-based convection. The threat for
strong tornadoes in the next 1-2 hours will likely be greatest with
any supercells that can mature ahead of the line across east-central
GA into parts of central/coastal SC. Embedded tornadoes within the
line may also be capable of becoming strong given 300-400 m2/s2 of
0-1 km SRH per recent VWPs from KJGX and KCLX.