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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

RAH posted this on Facebook.

Widespread and frequent wind gusts between 35 - 50 mph are likely late tonight through midday to early afternoon Monday; and these will impact all of central NC both within and away from showers & storms. Scattered to numerous gusts between 50-60 mph are also expected (indicated in the graphic shown), with isolated ones in excess of 60 mph.

Additionally, some thunderstorms will focus swaths of intense, damaging wind gusts in excess of hurricane force (74 mph), as well as isolated tornadoes - one or two of which could be significant (EF2 or greater).
#NCwx
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
@Webberweather53 I still can’t get over this amount of low level shear being presented by the hrrr, and there’s lots of turning with itView attachment 39294
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Sounding looks very contaminated, even still uhh yea this is absolutely insane. Also lol how did you find a sounding with a storm slinky of 69 degrees, surface temp of 69, with 69 knots of 0-1 shear. What you tryna say? :p

1586740478448.png
 
Im beginning to think flash flooding wont be much of an issue in Atlanta. Has it even rained much there today ?
 
No doubt this thing is not going away. In fact I do believe that line could intensify a little over night


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Massive downpour just went through here but temp didn't drop at all. Up to 68 now, hoping everything continues to stay tays just South of here.
 
Cadi40 said:
@Webberweather53, What are your thoughts for Charlotte, specifically east of Charlotte. I see many models highlighting the 77 corridor as a hotspot for activity and STP alike.
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Given my aforementioned post, better diurnal timing wrt surface based CAPE & instability, overall evolution in NWP models, and even climatology to a small extent I think the hotspot here will probably end up being the coastal plain or eastern piedmont, but storm-scale details are basically impossible to predict this far out
 
Central NC peeps: great discussion from RAH tonight. Give it a look when you can.Stay safe folks.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given my aforementioned post, better diurnal timing wrt surface based CAPE & instability, overall evolution in NWP models, and even climatology to a small extent I think the hotspot here will probably end up being the coastal plain or eastern piedmont, but storm-scale details are basically impossible to predict this far out
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Gonna be interesting when I wake up in the AM and can get an idea of storm mode that we will have. Thinking the gradient winds are gonna cause issues as well.
 
Any one have any knowledge of how the decision to issue tornado watches are made by NWS? I assume it differs by office but is there different criteria based on area like for winter storm warnings? Just seems maybe there should be one for more of N GA before most folks go to bed unaware of a potential threat?
 
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