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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

The presence of upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points in much of
LA and southern MS will spread north and likely reach northern MS to
western AL between 21-00Z. This should overlap strong low-level
shear (0-1 km SRH of 400+ m2/s2) as the low-level jet strengthens
and shifts northeast. The environment will favor embedded supercells
capable of producing strong tornadoes and damaging winds, the most
substantial of which may occur from northeast LA through
north-central MS into northern AL and southern middle TN. There is
still enough uncertainty with regard to convection outpacing
stronger surface-based instability (especially with northeast
extent), as well as the overall convective mode, to preclude an
upgrade to High Risk.
 
Good call from SPC shifting enhanced to eastern TN they have to be seeing what I am on the short range models. I really think it’s going to blast through hard for TN very quickly in the morning.
 
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