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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Ollie Williams said:
I find the huge drop-off in updraft helicity tracks as you get closer to the Carolinas Interesting considering the STP is still off the charts. Granted a lot of the tracks occur in areas where the STP is at zero. What even are the updraft helicity tracks. I would think that they would mean the amount of rotation in the storm, while the STP is the difference between upper and lower level wind directions(shear). Why would the updraft helicity tracks be on the very low side in NC? Thoughts?

Edit: This run's HRRR STP is much lower into the triad. From what I've been interpreting the models, I feel like there is some overhype. I may be wrong though, I'm not a severe guy like many of you who are.

Although just to be clear, I agree that this is a very big deal for MS, AL, LO, and GA.
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My guess is we'll see some wind gusts as opposed to long track violent tornadoes here. Probably not that many discrete cells overall. Would have likely been different if it came through 6 -8 hours later.
 
Even tho there’s a tornado threat around CLT/GSP/CAE, that wind threat is quite high, given the fact some soundings show 60kts at 1km, PWATs around 1.5 which helps with the process of water loading, elevated DCAPE, 750-1000jkg of SBcape, could be some serious wind damage, especially if it’s more of a line with bow echos ahead of bookend vortexes
 
Ollie Williams said:
I find the huge drop-off in updraft helicity tracks as you get closer to the Carolinas Interesting considering the STP is still off the charts. Granted a lot of the tracks occur in areas where the STP is at zero. What even are the updraft helicity tracks. I would think that they would mean the amount of rotation in the storm, while the STP is the difference between upper and lower level wind directions(shear). Why would the updraft helicity tracks be on the very low side in NC? Thoughts?

Edit: This run's HRRR STP is much lower into the triad. From what I've been interpreting the models, I feel like there is some overhype. I may be wrong though, I'm not a severe guy like many of you who are.

Although just to be clear, I agree that this is a very big deal for MS, AL, LO, and GA.
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I agree. Winter weather is my thing, but I've lived here my whole life and this isn't tornado country. Sure there have been some bigger outbreaks by Carolina standards but even those probably weren't at daybreak. Not trying to make light of the situation, as its a dangerous situation for GA, AL and MS. But I feel the western Carolina's main threat is straight line winds and a couple weak tornadoes. Along the I95 corridor could be a different story.
 
that hrrr looks a lot less volatile than earlier models to me but im not very versed in this stuff so i dont know.
 
sammyATL said:
Question : Where I live in Buckhead I saw the low clouds and fog moving rapidly west/northwest all day from my vantage point in my condo tower, even once into an oncoming line of storms. Now the fog has lifted, it’s warmer and muggy, but clouds are still screaming northwest. Isn’t the upper level flow coming out of the southwest, though? Am I seeing low-level and upper level dynamics? Big fan. Just curious.
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You are seeing the LLJ coming out of the SSW. When it became warm and muggy that was the surface warm front pushing through.
 
Its been raining almost constantly in Huntsville since noon and the temperature has risen 10 deg and the dewpoint has risen 15 deg since then. Not something you see very often.
 
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