4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Jesus Christ

 

[Zander98al]

Over 3 miles wide debris ball!!

 

[NorthDFWwx]

That and better low level instability, it’s worth noting that low level instability has increased in central-southern AL

Montgomery is currently 84*F / 69*F, and apparently with some clearing.

 

[Snowfan]

I hope people in the path of the storm are taking shelter.

Over 3 miles wide debris ball!!View attachment 39214View attachment 39215

 

[Zander98al]

There you go.

 

[Parker]

People were writing this off a little too early. Going to be a long evening and night for west central alabama.

The storm down near Laurel really has me nervous. That track would come dangerously close to my area way on down the road.

 

[Arcc]

What are you looking at to monitor lapse rates? Other than the SPC mesoanalysis?


Right now, the less than impressive low level lapse rates are the saving grace for this event. That said, they're forecast to rise a decent bit over the next several hours and I believe they could be a little underdone in modeling as the warm front continues to advect in warmer and more unstable air.

That said, I think you're highlighting something very important as if the 0-3km lapse rates don't improve then that's the most likely failure mode for this event. Ideally you want to see them over 7 and it's very possible we don't get anywhere near that close. It's a nailbiter to be honest. If we do get better lapse rates in the lower levels I think we'll see this event pick up substantially.

Normally I do watch mesoanalysis, haven't today. Right now I'm just really watching how the storms are being stretched out. But I tend to agree, with better low level lapse rates, I'd be more confident to a higher risk.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

Holy hell batman, this is the south MS storm

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[Zander98al]

Holy hell batman, this is the south MS storm

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Looks like debris is starting to fall out as its cycling

 

[Arcc]

That and better low level instability, it’s worth noting that low level instability has increased in central-southern AL

I figured the bigger threat but "by the book" areas 100 miles north of the Gulf and south get dangerous in events like this.

 

[Zander98al]

Tightening couplet in alabama

 

[Arcc]

People were writing this off a little too early. Going to be a long evening and night for west central alabama.

The storm down near Laurel really has me nervous. That track would come dangerously close to my area way on down the road.

No one is writing this off or declaring this a bust by commenting on observations.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Hope this is right and rotation mostly stays in extreme southern NC.

 

[Parker]

No one is writing this off or declaring this a bust by commenting on observations.

Some people, not you in particular have mentioned the word bust several times during the discussion today. I guess I should have made myself more clear in the previous post.

It happens in just about every winter or severe weather threat that we have.

 

[Arcc]

Tightening couplet in alabama View attachment 39218

Here comes the bookend votex. Probably a nasty MCS starting up.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Really starting to get gusty here in Burlington. Not severe gusts, just the ones before a severe storm. Granted there aren't any severe storms around anyways.

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Really starting to get gusty here in Burlington. Not severe gusts, just the ones before a severe storm. Granted there aren't any severe storms around anyways.

I call that the "storms a brewing" wind.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Tornado Warning for Tuscaloosa

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This supercell in my opinion is gonna be the biggest issue for the next hour

 

[Parker]

Is anybody else having trouble viewing radar on the BHAM NWS page? I can't get the radar to pull up for me