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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Arcc said:
So far, you can clearly see the effects of the meager low level lapse rates and high shear on radar.
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What are you looking at to monitor lapse rates? Other than the SPC mesoanalysis?
Arcc said:
So far, you can clearly see the effects of the meager low level lapse rates and high shear on radar.
Click to expand...

Right now, the less than impressive low level lapse rates are the saving grace for this event. That said, they're forecast to rise a decent bit over the next several hours and I believe they could be a little underdone in modeling as the warm front continues to advect in warmer and more unstable air.

That said, I think you're highlighting something very important as if the 0-3km lapse rates don't improve then that's the most likely failure mode for this event. Ideally you want to see them over 7 and it's very possible we don't get anywhere near that close. It's a nailbiter to be honest. If we do get better lapse rates in the lower levels I think we'll see this event pick up substantially.
 
Rah NWS very concerned about tomorrow....

The severe threat is looking increasingly alarming. IMO the most
remarkable/concerning aspect is the HREF high probabilities(80-90%)
that show moderate instability(1000-1500 J/Kg) spreading west to
east across central NC, amidst the large 0-1 km hodographs and 400-
500 m/s of helicity created by the incredibly strong low-level shear
moving through the region. This environment will be highly conducive
for widespread thunderstorm wind damage, tornadoes and large hail
across the area between 09Z(4am) to 16z(Noon), with the pending of
evolution/mode of the convection(line/bow segment vs. discrete
supercells) playing a critical role in what the main severe threat
will be.
 
Arcc said:
Yeah, it will likely break then, beforehand though is very much in doubt.
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It's going to be close. Right now, however, I suspect you're right. I'm a bit worried about mesocale features that could allow an isolated storm to bust through, but that will be hard to pickup on until it happens.

I think the trends are positive for now (meaning much less chance of isolated supercells) and hopefully they remain that way. I hate hate hate waiting on a CAP to see if all hell breaks loose or if a threat ends up subdued due to a lack of forcing to break it.
 
I called it last night. That the I-77 corridor has the potential to be a hotspot for tornadoes. 10% hatched right up through Metro Charlotte. That's pretty significant. SPC even calling for strong tornadoes over us during the predawn hours. Buckle up folks, we're in for a LOOOONG night.
 
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