Well, they shouldn't mention it breaking down and then bet on it from saving us. That makes no sense. Haha.
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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather tornadoes
Well, they shouldn't mention it breaking down and then bet on it from saving us. That makes no sense. Haha.
Hrrr still shows a nasty look in the piedmont of NC with bookend vortexes/supercells, what is giving me a bad feeling is now notice the amount of backing winds there is at the sfc from the SE, (had that with that feb setup) this can help with inflow and help increase the chances of tornadoes associated with broken up supercells in the line, also nearly 60kts of 1km shear is absolutely insanity 
hope you're right... too early to say yet.
La Plata
Member
Have you ever intercepted a tornado? If not, I'd be extremely careful chasing today's storms in some of the terrain found in MS/AL. Especially if you go north or east of Fayette.
I've chased in NW Alabama and Northern Mississippi on a number of occasions. It can be very dangerous because of the aforementioned terrain issues, large forests/dense foliage, and spotty mobile data (even with an amp and antenna).
Intended to be FYSA -- particularly in light of the potential strength of any tornadoes that do form today.
But why criticize them before the event? They could end up right. Crying wolf isn't good either. If there are no or hardly any tornadoes, they'll look good. With this coming in there during late night, there is a reasonable chance that tornadoes will be no more than few and far between there as late night and early morning are climowise about the least likely times for major tornado outbreaks as I assume you realize. This is coming in there almost exactly 12 hours away from the climo most likely time of mid afternoon to early evening. If it ends up unexpectedly looking more dangerous, say around 9 PM when most folks are still up, they can then emphasize the tornado risk.
Yeah the lack of low level instability associated with that cap is keeping things from being surface based
Z
Zander98al
Guest
This little boogers got some rotation
I agree and I do apologize for bashing them. Yes, they could end up right. But then you have FCC saying something completely different. HRRR and NAM show a dire situation over us. I just want people to be prepared, that's all.
Mid-level lapse rates are, surprisingly, decent today.
LithiaWx
Member
Maybe I’m wrong but it looks like central AL and west central GA are going to end up being hit hard. They are about to enter the warm sector with little in the way of crapvection. JMO
FWIW, here is a portion of the AFD for RAH. They do include some strong wording.
The severe threat is looking increasingly alarming. IMO the most
remarkable/concerning aspect is the HREF high probabilities(80-90%)
that show moderate instability(1000-1500 J/Kg) spreading west to
east across central NC, amidst the large 0-1 km hodographs and 400-
500 m/s of helicity created by the incredibly strong low-level shear
moving through the region. This environment will be highly conducive
for widespread thunderstorm wind damage, tornadoes and large hail
across the area between 09Z(4am) to 16z(Noon), with the pending of
evolution/mode of the convection(line/bow segment vs. discrete
supercells) playing a critical role in what the main severe threat
will be.
The severe threat is looking increasingly alarming. IMO the most
remarkable/concerning aspect is the HREF high probabilities(80-90%)
that show moderate instability(1000-1500 J/Kg) spreading west to
east across central NC, amidst the large 0-1 km hodographs and 400-
500 m/s of helicity created by the incredibly strong low-level shear
moving through the region. This environment will be highly conducive
for widespread thunderstorm wind damage, tornadoes and large hail
across the area between 09Z(4am) to 16z(Noon), with the pending of
evolution/mode of the convection(line/bow segment vs. discrete
supercells) playing a critical role in what the main severe threat
will be.
Chasing now
Can we please move the complaints about NWS offices to a different thread?
It's just cluttering up the thread and not helpful to folks in MS being hit by storms right now.
It's just cluttering up the thread and not helpful to folks in MS being hit by storms right now.
Don't be surprised if it does not break. The warm air sitting at 800-850mb is being advected north by the 70-80knt winds.
This is from RAP/SPC Hourly Mesoscale for STP +6 hours you can see may storm front pushing in with STP values elevated across AL into GA should be very potent envioroment. In fact +2 hours shows a major bump up in STP for region. It really jumps as Cape and the system drives north.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I cant believe there's a tornado warning on the doorstep of AL and still no watch yet.
SPC maintains moderate risk
It prob won’t break until the better forcing comes in with the front.
