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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Central Alabama at the NWS BMX office
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LAZ036-037-048-071-MSZ069-070-122015-
St. Helena-Northern Tangipahoa-East Feliciana-East Baton
Rouge-Pike-Amite-
220 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ST. HELENA...EASTERN EAST
FELICIANA...NORTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA AND NORTHEASTERN EAST BATON ROUGE
PARISHES...PIKE AND SOUTHEASTERN AMITE COUNTIES...

At 220 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Darlington, or
7 miles east of Clinton, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mccomb, Clinton, Greensburg, Magnolia, Kentwood, Summit, Roseland,
Osyka, Darlington, Gillsberg, Pride, Felps, Easleyville, Tangipahoa
and Mccomb Airport.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
 
From GSP
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
300 PM Update...The atmos is remaining stable underneath an insitu
sfc wedge per the latest LAPS analysis. Current radar trends are
showing areas of light to moderate rain generally across the Upstate
and srn mtn fthills. Rainfall amts have been arnd a half inch or
so across the srn NC mtns and the far srn Upstate. These amts were
anticipated thru this time as a general lull in activity moves in
from the west. The lull should only last a couple hrs and by later
this afternoon...heavier rain showers will begin to move in from the
west and interact with the sfc wedge. Expect arnd another inch of
rainfall across the srn BR later this evening, then perhaps another
lull thru 03z before a line of deep convection reaches the wrn NC
mtns. Overall, still anticipating 2-3 inches ST over the srn BR with
localized amts possible of 4+ inches by daybreak. This will be enuf
to create quickly rising stream levels late overnight and flooding
conds before daybreak. The FF.A has been expanded to included NE GA
and the higher elevs of SC to account for topo enhanced precip
flashy NE GA streams.

The severe threat still looks good overnight as deep forcing and
increased dynamics move into the FA aft 03z. With the sfc wedge
breaking down expect an increase of sbCAPE over the non/mtns within
llvl WAA flow. With a llvl jet increasing to arnd 60 kts and deep
layered shear increasing to 60+ kts...the stage will be set for
stg/svr storms traversing the area south and east of the mtns before
exiting east arnd 12z/13z. All the models are showing a good uptick
in dynamics and deep omega btw 09z and 12z, with the NAM more dire.
This will likely be the timeframe for more discrete cells or SCs to
form, increasing the risk for large hail and damaging winds across
the rn zones. Environmental winds will also be an issue overnight
and into the daytime period Mon. With the lowering jet core, shallow
mixing will allow stg wind gusts to reach the sfc. With moist soils
these winds could down isol weak or dead trees. So, have extended and
issued a new wind adv for all NC zones going into effect this
evening and continuing thru mid day Mon.
Click to expand...
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
332 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020


...INCREASED CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LATE
TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /Rest of today through Monday Night/...

Things should ramp up quickly here for a significant outbreak of
severe storms (possibly the strongest event in at least the last 2
to 3 years) having the big three main threats of strong long-
track tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail this afternoon
into the overnight. Much of the western CWA remains in a Moderate
Risk with the rest of the area in an Enhanced, though the storm
threats could occur area-wide. All the recent convective
development across the western and northern CWA has been tapping
into mostly elevated instability, though concern is increasing
with the evolution of a warm front/lingering wedge front across
portions of north Georgia (currently extending near the Atlanta
Metro to just south of Athens) as this may end up focusing some
stronger rotating convection tapping into more surface based
energy along with localized enhanced low level helicity and
frontogenetic forcing on top of the ample upper forcing/jet
dynamics. The HRRR continues to ramp up the Sig Tor Param along
and south of this feature that could slowly lift northward this
afternoon into evening and bulk shear vectors have strong veering,
so will need to watch for discrete supercell and tornado
potential even ahead of the main overnight expected storms.

Hi-res CAM consensus continues to have expected intense convective
zones/broken lines with embedded supercells pushing into the CWA
after about 04z (midnight) tonight pushing eastward through the
early morning hours. The HRRR indicates impressive swaths of updraft
helicity along these storms interacting with over 400 m2/s2 of 0-1km
SRH, so there is concern of some strong long-track tornadoes, even
more dangerous given the nocturnal timing. Regardless there will be
a widespread damaging wind threat with a robust 65 kt LLJ and 80-100
kts of bulk deep layer shear as the upper wave swings negative.
 
Jrips2710 said:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
332 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020


...INCREASED CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LATE
TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /Rest of today through Monday Night/...

Things should ramp up quickly here for a significant outbreak of
severe storms (possibly the strongest event in at least the last 2
to 3 years) having the big three main threats of strong long-
track tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail this afternoon
into the overnight. Much of the western CWA remains in a Moderate
Risk with the rest of the area in an Enhanced, though the storm
threats could occur area-wide. All the recent convective
development across the western and northern CWA has been tapping
into mostly elevated instability, though concern is increasing
with the evolution of a warm front/lingering wedge front across
portions of north Georgia (currently extending near the Atlanta
Metro to just south of Athens) as this may end up focusing some
stronger rotating convection tapping into more surface based
energy along with localized enhanced low level helicity and
frontogenetic forcing on top of the ample upper forcing/jet
dynamics. The HRRR continues to ramp up the Sig Tor Param along
and south of this feature that could slowly lift northward this
afternoon into evening and bulk shear vectors have strong veering,
so will need to watch for discrete supercell and tornado
potential even ahead of the main overnight expected storms.

Hi-res CAM consensus continues to have expected intense convective
zones/broken lines with embedded supercells pushing into the CWA
after about 04z (midnight) tonight pushing eastward through the
early morning hours. The HRRR indicates impressive swaths of updraft
helicity along these storms interacting with over 400 m2/s2 of 0-1km
SRH, so there is concern of some strong long-track tornadoes, even
more dangerous given the nocturnal timing. Regardless there will be
a widespread damaging wind threat with a robust 65 kt LLJ and 80-100
kts of bulk deep layer shear as the upper wave swings negative.
Click to expand...

That’s some strong language there


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