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Severe 3/30-4/2 Severe Weather

metwannabe said:
@SD @Myfrotho704_ thoughts? I see slight risk has been expanded back south into mostly central/northern NC for tomorrow and some of the hi res models do hint at some better dynamics for a tornado or two across N/NE part of state.

This from Rah:
The primary threat will be from
damaging wind gusts with a mostly linear mode with some embedded
cells organizing into supercells capable of producing a brief or
isolated tornado. The 12Z HREF shows a few longer UH tracks, mainly
across the northeast Piedmont.
Click to expand...
With the timing of this big squall like I really find it hard to believe we see anything appreciable. I think a slight risk is the max warranted risk at this point as I can see that line starting to try and regenerate on some models as it crosses the mountains. There’s some rain ahead of it and were socked in with clouds so even when the line moves over at a fair time 12-4 pm I just think the heavy clouds and preceding rain just doesn’t put us in too much of a worrisome spot. Certainly maybe up your way you could stay out of the prefrontal stuff long enough to warrant that risk and have enough time for parameters like SBcape to increase enough to give your storms some more bite. The day as a whole thought just looks messy. Good lord though if we had some clear skies or partly clear for a few hours before that line moved through we would be cooking. There’s also a chance the line is really quick and maybe we can clear out before the cold front gets here to fire up some storm that way .. those would be interesting to watch for but that situation doesn’t always work out most of the time the atmosphere could be too worked over and timing would just be too little too late .. would like to see where this line is by late tonight
 
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