Severe 3/21-3/24 Severe Weather

[jackendrickwx]

For the Carolinas, the timing differences are hilarious at this range. HRRR gets some spin going in a big rainy mass for central SC tomorrow afternoon, while the NAM3k has a wee hours Thu morning threat for coastal plain and eastern piedmont of NC. Wind field/shear looks pretty impressive generally but as has been noted by the NWS's and SPC mechanism for actually getting stuff going could be lacking

 

[Shaggy]

For the Carolinas, the timing differences are hilarious at this range. HRRR gets some spin going in a big rainy mass for central SC tomorrow afternoon, while the NAM3k has a wee hours Thu morning threat for coastal plain and eastern piedmont of NC. Wind field/shear looks pretty impressive generally but as has been noted by the NWS's and SPC mechanism for actually getting stuff going could be lacking

3k nam fires off plenty of storms for SC/NC so if that trend continues all storm threats from hail to tornados would still be on the table.

 

[Shaggy]

These drone videos really show the way the winds are working around the tornado. You can see little inflow streaks and at 30 seconds or so you can see a quick vortices spin up in the field to the left of the main tornado.

 

[HSVweather]

 

[Zander98al]

Nws is pretty confident on violent tornado potential in the Jackson watch area. I'm wondering if they're thinking a boundary will setup somewhere in the delta, localizing strong tornado potential

 

[Metwannabe]

These drone videos really show the way the winds are working around the tornado. You can see little inflow streaks and at 30 seconds or so you can see a quick vortices spin up in the field to the left of the main tornado.

Also, just before that little vortex spins up, in that same field there is a pile of bushes or debris or something that get pulled into the tor almost one by one in a straight line, laying out the inflow nicely. Unreal video to watch over and over

 

[jackendrickwx]

12z HRRR more aggressive on severe prospects for central and even upstate SC tomorrow afternoon, continuing up into NC

 

[jackendrickwx]

Nothing high end but impressive wind field and here's the UH swaths

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah that hrrr run opens eyes a bit,
Lots of low level instability and just enough venting aloft favorable for maintenance of supercells and winds near the SFC are backed

 

[Zander98al]

My exact thinking ?

 

[Zander98al]

WOW!

 

[Zander98al]

New HRRR run has a tornadic cell spawning on the LA/MS border south border* and staying intact all the way to north Alabama/ north Mississippi border. Along with many other cells

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Damn the QLCS was slower then modeled. Really changed the setup

 

[Fountainguy97]

Atmosphere is already primed for storm activity. We will be tracking cells by 1pm.

 

[Zander98al]

 

[Zander98al]

Atmosphere is already primed for storm activity. We will be tracking cells by 1pm.

Earlier than that 11 o'clock you'll start seeing some probably.

 

[Fountainguy97]

Earlier than that 11 o'clock you'll start seeing some probably.

wouldn't surprise me. Those HRRR cells popping up in LA by lunch will spin up quickly. Could be a day where a few cells get TOR warned 20 minutes after they fire. Days like this they are basically rotating from the start.

 

[HSVweather]

Is this the start of those isolated cells, North of NO and around Hattiesburg?

 

[Zander98al]

Yes more and likely, probably take it awhile to get going though, going to be a real sloppy afternoon but with those sloppy conditions you'll have some cells really flourish

 

[HSVweather]

There are a few breaks in NE MS but not many