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Severe 3/17/21 Severe Weather Outbreak Al/Ms/Tn/Ar nowcast

so...was that cap in mississippi today a factor??? clear skies....and nothing....lots of folks expected explosion in that area due to the clear skies. Thoughts please...New Tornado watch in alabama is a high end PDS....?????? What am I misssing?
 
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Psalm 148:8 said:
so...was that cap in mississippi today a factor??? clear skies....and nothing....lots of folks expected explosion in that area due to the clear skies. Thoughts please...New Tornado watch in alabama is a high end PDS....?????? What am I misssing?
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No cap is apparent in this 20z (3pm CDT) sounding from Jacksonville, MS. The lacking thing in this sounding is that there's less rotational shear than expected. That wouldn't stop storms from firing, but would limit supercell/tornado development. Alabama seems to have the more impressive wind profile, and thus more tornado warnings.
1616025981232.png

If you want to click through some other soundings launched today: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/
 
Selma storm turning into a bookend vortex. Should be interesting to see if it tries to build into a MCS.
 
Bing...I am very amateur....but I just don't see it....you don't have to look at models...look at storm reports...look at the brief nature of most of the warnings.....Mississippi barely had anything at all....
 
I’m not saying there’s gonna be a whole outbreak of destructive tornadoes tonight but with highly sheared QLCS you have to watch them, those have been notorious in the past
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
so if my novice mind understands this, the light blue dashed area is stable, it shows measurements that counteract what we need to have severe storms. referencing top graphic.
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Yes however low level shear is increasing, it’s a trade off, more stability in the low levels but higher shear which is bringing enough instability in (LLJ transporting theta-E) to keep a QLCS tor threat
 
Ooff this one doesn’t have a tornado warning

decc236b5970dd9defb69b864e9dfeac.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Stormsfury said:
FYI, NOCTURNAL jets will be strengthening, both LLJ and the MLJ, which should be more than enough to overcome nocturnal stabilizing forces
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This!!! , LLJ is easily capable of bringing in SBcape given the strength, which is why the SPC issued a PDS tor watch
 
Norman agrees with you. I think it’s too aggressive based on what I see on radar, but who knows.



Forecast Discussion
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for significant tornadoes continues tonight. Much of
the greatest risk is over Alabama.

...01z Update...

LLJ is strengthening across the central Gulf States this evening
ahead of a strong mid-level short-wave trough that is progressing
into the lower MS Valley. Large-scale forcing appears to be
contributing to an elongated MCS that is growing upscale from
eastern MS into southeastern LA. While this MCS is gradually
maturing, numerous embedded mesos are noted along this corridor and
the strength of the wind fields continue to favor the potential for
supercells. Of more concern are the discrete storms that continue
ahead of the MCS, and the potential for new supercells.
Strengthening wind fields favor tornadoes with this activity. The
primary changes at 01z are to lower severe probabilities in the wake
of the evolving MCS.

..Darrow.. 03/18/2021




Myfrotho704_ said:
This!!! , LLJ is easily capable of bringing in SBcape given the strength, which is why the SPC issued a PDS tor watch
Click to expand...
 
Seemed like there was several tornadoes today but overall not to strong (some did have EF-3 looks per how high debris Went) also not much long trackers, I think a moderate would have been perfect, still not much of a bust imo (maybe in MS could be argued) most of the tors stayed on the south side of the 30-45%
 
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