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Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀

12Z UKMET has no TC but it does have this TW on Thu evening moving NW and then NNW from here bringing convection into the NFL/GA/SC coast on Fri 8/7. I may have to watch this. Hopefully it ends up nothing more than this or a low end TS at worst:

IMG_1483.jpeg
 
GaWx said:
12Z UKMET has no TC but it does have this TW on Thu evening moving NW and then NNW from here bringing convection into the NFL/GA/SC coast on Fri 8/7. I may have to watch this. Hopefully it ends up nothing more than this or a low end TS at worst:

View attachment 197130
Click to expand...

Seems to be modeling differences wrt if it can translate towards the sfc/LLs, because there's a good signal for an ever-so-slight disturbance at H500 on most guidance that I've seen... but not as consistent with any surface low development.
 
Shaggy said:
Little more noise on the ensembles right now but it looks to be a very safe recurve scenario
Click to expand...


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during
the middle to latter part of next week while it moves westward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



0Z UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.6N 33.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2026 132 12.6N 33.9W 1011 34
0000UTC 14.08.2026 144 13.0N 38.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 14.08.2026 156 14.1N 42.3W 1011 32
0000UTC 15.08.2026 168 15.4N 47.2W 1012 36
 
12Z UK
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.0N 53.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2026 96 12.0N 53.2W 1012 26
0000UTC 13.08.2026 108 12.5N 56.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 13.08.2026 120 12.7N 60.3W 1010 29
0000UTC 14.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING
 
The 0Z UKMET is back to developing the further E TW (12Z TC was from the further W TW):


0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 9.3N 35.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 96 9.1N 36.4W 1010 23
1200UTC 13.08.2026 108 9.8N 38.0W 1010 28
0000UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.1N 40.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 14.08.2026 132 12.6N 42.5W 1010 32
0000UTC 15.08.2026 144 15.0N 45.6W 1011 33
1200UTC 15.08.2026 156 17.0N 49.5W 1011 37
0000UTC 16.08.2026 168 18.3N 53.4W 1012 41
 
12Z UKMET: notably further WSW than prior run as it ends as a TS at ~140 miles E of N Leewards moving WNW

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.9N 34.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2026 72 10.8N 36.0W 1010 26
0000UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.3N 38.3W 1010 26
1200UTC 13.08.2026 96 10.7N 40.9W 1010 28
0000UTC 14.08.2026 108 11.1N 43.9W 1010 29
1200UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.8N 47.0W 1010 29
0000UTC 15.08.2026 132 12.9N 50.1W 1010 29
1200UTC 15.08.2026 144 14.5N 53.5W 1011 32
0000UTC 16.08.2026 156 16.0N 56.7W 1011 37
1200UTC 16.08.2026 168 17.4N 59.9W 1010 39
 
0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.6N 37.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 72 10.1N 38.8W 1011 25
1200UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.6N 41.9W 1011 27
0000UTC 14.08.2026 96 11.4N 44.8W 1011 29
1200UTC 14.08.2026 108 12.5N 48.2W 1011 29
0000UTC 15.08.2026 120 13.8N 51.7W 1012 32
1200UTC 15.08.2026 132 15.9N 56.4W 1011 38
0000UTC 16.08.2026 144 16.8N 60.2W 1011 40
1200UTC 16.08.2026 156 18.9N 63.7W 1009 51
0000UTC 17.08.2026 168 20.5N 65.9W 1008 35
 
The further E AOI is now Invest 92L.

UKMET: just S of PR as a dissipating minimal TS

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.3N 38.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 36 10.5N 38.6W 1010 26
1200UTC 13.08.2026 48 11.4N 41.6W 1010 29
0000UTC 14.08.2026 60 11.8N 44.6W 1011 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 72 12.8N 48.1W 1011 30
0000UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.0N 51.9W 1011 33
1200UTC 15.08.2026 96 15.3N 56.1W 1011 36
0000UTC 16.08.2026 108 16.2N 60.5W 1010 34
1200UTC 16.08.2026 120 17.0N 64.2W 1010 35
0000UTC 17.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING
 
Invest 92L:

0Z UKMET: only makes it to TD status for the first time in many runs:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.6N 40.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 24 10.6N 40.2W 1011 23
1200UTC 13.08.2026 36 11.4N 42.5W 1012 27
0000UTC 14.08.2026 48 11.5N 46.5W 1012 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 60 12.5N 49.9W 1013 28
0000UTC 15.08.2026 72 13.6N 54.3W 1012 30
1200UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.2N 58.8W 1012 29
0000UTC 16.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING
 
The TW following 92L is also making some noise on the models and is now a lemon:

Now up to 20/30:

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some
development of this system during the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
The TW following 92L is also making some noise on the models and is now a lemon:

Now up to 20/30:

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some
development of this system during the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Click to expand...
1786537018740.png
 
Shaggy said:
I think this will be a hard year to predict. I know El Nino will hurt the season. Nhc over the last 10 years has increased their naming of sheared out naked swirls so I could see more named storms than in a typical Nino but far less hurricanes. Just never know what the nhc will throw a name on.
Click to expand...
Cristobal is exactly why I didn't want to make a prediction this year.
 
Hawaii sitting dead center of this cone. A few models flirt with low end Cat 2 hurricane strength.

CP012026_5day_cone.png
 
It's sad when a tropical storm forms in the Atlantic and is not even considered worthy of its own thread. Such is the state of the current hurricane season so far. I do see some potential with one of the waves that are approaching the Windward Islands if the shear over the Atlantic basin doesn't rip it apart.
 
The Caribbean basin remains as hostile as ever. Perhaps the trailing wave can get far enough north, but it will likely be a fish. The only thing I see worth watching is if the first wave develops fast and strong enough to survive the trek through the Caribbean as a remnant low that may redevelop in the NW Caribbean or SE GOM.
1786572162957.png
 
weather bubba said:
It's sad when a tropical storm forms in the Atlantic and is not even considered worthy of its own thread. Such is the state of the current hurricane season so far. I do see some potential with one of the waves that are approaching the Windward Islands if the shear over the Atlantic basin doesn't rip it apart.
Click to expand...
didnt even know it formed, once I did and saw the satellite it got a welp and I moved on
 
For the first run in many days, the UKMET (12Z) has no Atlantic basin TC.
 
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