Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀

[annunciated]

Looks to be a disturbance rotating around the south-end of a surface high near the Mid-Atlantic. That is something to keep watching.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Can we skip ahead a year?

 

[annunciated]

Can we skip ahead a year?

We can expect a LN response after the fact as per analogs, but data on where and when grows fuzzy especially as the SPB is this far out. It'll just be a wait and see for the months to come.

 

[ChrisAMB]

There's so much OHC in the Gulf Stream I always worry about something developing off GA/FL and blowing up into a monster with weak steering.

 

[annunciated]

12z AIFS-ENS run does show some room for potential development, but it seems weak for now.

 

[Downeastnc]

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET has no TC but it does have this TW on Thu evening moving NW and then NNW from here bringing convection into the NFL/GA/SC coast on Fri 8/7. I may have to watch this. Hopefully it ends up nothing more than this or a low end TS at worst:

 

[annunciated]

12Z UKMET has no TC but it does have this TW on Thu evening moving NW and then NNW from here bringing convection into the NFL/GA/SC coast on Fri 8/7. I may have to watch this. Hopefully it ends up nothing more than this or a low end TS at worst:

View attachment 197130

Seems to be modeling differences wrt if it can translate towards the sfc/LLs, because there's a good signal for an ever-so-slight disturbance at H500 on most guidance that I've seen... but not as consistent with any surface low development.

 

[annunciated]

It does appear we may have an increased risk of weak development in the ATL MDR.

 

[Shaggy]

Little more noise on the ensembles right now but it looks to be a very safe recurve scenario

 

[weather bubba]

Cape Verde season in the tropics is approaching and the Sarahan dust that has been choking the Atlantic and Caribbean will be lessening some so conditions may be improving soon for something tropical to form within the next couple of weeks.

 

[Rain Cold]

Little more noise on the ensembles right now but it looks to be a very safe recurve scenario

Door #1: The Caribbean Shreadder
Door #2: Return To Sender

 

[GaWx]

Little more noise on the ensembles right now but it looks to be a very safe recurve scenario

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during
the middle to latter part of next week while it moves westward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



0Z UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.6N 33.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2026 132 12.6N 33.9W 1011 34
0000UTC 14.08.2026 144 13.0N 38.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 14.08.2026 156 14.1N 42.3W 1011 32
0000UTC 15.08.2026 168 15.4N 47.2W 1012 36

 

[GaWx]

12Z UK
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.0N 53.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2026 96 12.0N 53.2W 1012 26
0000UTC 13.08.2026 108 12.5N 56.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 13.08.2026 120 12.7N 60.3W 1010 29
0000UTC 14.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

 

[annunciated]

 

[GaWx]

The 0Z UKMET is back to developing the further E TW (12Z TC was from the further W TW):


0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 9.3N 35.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 96 9.1N 36.4W 1010 23
1200UTC 13.08.2026 108 9.8N 38.0W 1010 28
0000UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.1N 40.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 14.08.2026 132 12.6N 42.5W 1010 32
0000UTC 15.08.2026 144 15.0N 45.6W 1011 33
1200UTC 15.08.2026 156 17.0N 49.5W 1011 37
0000UTC 16.08.2026 168 18.3N 53.4W 1012 41

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: notably further WSW than prior run as it ends as a TS at ~140 miles E of N Leewards moving WNW

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.9N 34.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2026 72 10.8N 36.0W 1010 26
0000UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.3N 38.3W 1010 26
1200UTC 13.08.2026 96 10.7N 40.9W 1010 28
0000UTC 14.08.2026 108 11.1N 43.9W 1010 29
1200UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.8N 47.0W 1010 29
0000UTC 15.08.2026 132 12.9N 50.1W 1010 29
1200UTC 15.08.2026 144 14.5N 53.5W 1011 32
0000UTC 16.08.2026 156 16.0N 56.7W 1011 37
1200UTC 16.08.2026 168 17.4N 59.9W 1010 39

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.6N 37.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 72 10.1N 38.8W 1011 25
1200UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.6N 41.9W 1011 27
0000UTC 14.08.2026 96 11.4N 44.8W 1011 29
1200UTC 14.08.2026 108 12.5N 48.2W 1011 29
0000UTC 15.08.2026 120 13.8N 51.7W 1012 32
1200UTC 15.08.2026 132 15.9N 56.4W 1011 38
0000UTC 16.08.2026 144 16.8N 60.2W 1011 40
1200UTC 16.08.2026 156 18.9N 63.7W 1009 51
0000UTC 17.08.2026 168 20.5N 65.9W 1008 35