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Severe 2026 Severe Thread 🌩

@Tarheel1 heads up from some people


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Snowfan said:
Now a CIG 2 Tornado threat for SE OK.
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Looks like it's gonna be south of me. Maybe... The warm front is allegedly still below me

Definitely the better support is down there

The whole thing seems like it's gonna shift towards Texas pretty quick
 
Brent said:
Looks like it's gonna be south of me. Maybe... The warm front is allegedly still below me

Definitely the better support is down there

The whole thing seems like it's gonna shift towards Texas pretty quick
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Tornado watch doesn’t even include Tulsa, so things should be fine up your way.1777151261475.jpeg
 
WRAL and RAH mentioned the chance of strong to severe storms here tomorrow night after rain in the morning. Of course, if we don't get any sun before tomorrow evening then no storms.
 
jrips27 said:
Nadocast for tomorrow is very interesting
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It seems like the guidance (especially the HRRR) has shifted over the past 24 hours from a linear storm mode coming in well after dark to potential semi-discrete storm mode development as early as pre-sunset all the way into northern GA and extending back through AL/MS. One thing that keeps showing up is this early to midday supercell complex moving through the northern suburbs (exact placement has shifted a bit each run, but HRRR has consistently shown something) which could carry all the way into portions of western SC and provide an earlier threat of wind/hail. However, where that sets up will likely determine where the surface-based instability is by evening and whether or not potential tornadic cells will form in and around NW GA (alternative would probably be a wind/hail dominated threat). Areas southwest of Atlanta extending over into the Birmingham area need to watch out for surprise discrete storms that could produce tornadoes. If that midday storm complex/supercell is well north of the area and just scraping north AL/GA, then there is probably going to be a higher overall tornadic threat for northwestern GA and areas around Birmingham/further north than anticipated originally. 1778005681098.png1778005666683.png
 
Confidence continues to increase in the potential for severe weather across portions of north and central Georgia starting Wednesday afternoon and lasting through early Thursday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has most of north and portions of central GA, including the Atlanta metro, in a Level 2 of 5 risk
for severe weather during this timeframe. Our initial severe threat may be Wednesday afternoon as isolated storms could develop
across areas from Atlanta northward, though confidence in these storms developing is low as there won`t be much forcing. The more likely timeframe for activity is from Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning as the frontal boundary and a potential line of
strong to severe storms pushes through the area. Model guidance continues to show an environment out ahead of the frontal boundary of 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, 40-50 kts of effective shear, and low level helicity of 150-250 m2/s2. A major contributor to these strong shear values is a screaming southwesterly low level jet that develops after sunset. Storm modes will likely initially be a combination of discrete supercells and bowing segments out ahead of the front in the evening, before merging into an MCS with
potentially embedded supercells overnight. All severe hazards would be possible in this setup, including damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes. Given the high shear, a strong tornado could not be ruled out across north GA if things come together
favorably with a discrete or embedded supercell. As with all setups like this, there are some factors that could lower the
overall severe threat, like the morning convection across north GA limiting instability later in the day. Our confidence in the severe threat, and any changes to it, will continue to increase as
we get closer to the timeframe on Wednesday, so stay tuned for updates!
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FFC seems pretty interested in tomorrow even mentioning the potential for a strong tornado.
 
NEW SPC DAY ONE OUT LOOK
Screenshot 2026-05-06 044239.jpgScreenshot 2026-05-06 044346.jpg
...Synopsis...
A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi
Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the
period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the
southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing
along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across
portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the
afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across
portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama
along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms
grow upscale through the evening.

...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama...
Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning
across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of
northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of
broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and
southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and
strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of
moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the
possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the
afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this
corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also
increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and
increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to
form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for
all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the
region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will
occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning
cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low
confidence in introducing higher probabilities.

AND FROM NWS BIRMINGHAM
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