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Severe 2026 Severe Thread 🌩

You don’t see this kind of commentary every day
 
After a few days of quiet weather, a stout trough swings into the
area, returning the chances for showers and thunderstorms. Current
guidance depicts a developing low over the central plains and
ejecting northeast and dragging a strong cold front toward the CWA
Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of the front on Sunday, pre-frontal
isentropic lift looks to occur, increasing PoP chances across much
of the region. This is expected to remain more showery than
convective as guidance doesn`t have much in the way of instability
on Sunday. Additionally, southeasterly winds pick up across the
area, increasing gusts across the entire area. Though 15-25 mph
gusts are possible, winds should remain well below any Wind Advisory
criteria. As the front approaches and provides better lift of
parcels, the severe threat increases. At of this forecast, the
timing of the front has slowed down from previous model runs,
meaning the probability of severe weather is increasing. Since the
front is looking to cross into the area during the daytime hours,
this increases the chances for better instability, especially east
of the mountains. Current guidance shows a 40-50% chance of sbCAPE
of 500 J/kg or higher, with the eastern fringe of the NC Piedmont
and portions of SC highlighted. This lines up with the current Day 4
outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Additionally, shear with
this system also packs 50-60kts at the 850mb level and plenty of
moisture at the surface. So, for the time being at this current
forecast, all hazards are possible. As for any tornado potential,
guidance does show a decent amount of 200-250 SRH during the later
afternoon period on Monday. What this indicates is the environment
is supportive of spinning up the lower levels, which could lead to
the development of a brief tornado along the leading edge of the
convective line.

Thoughts from GSP.

Edit : this came out before the new SPC outlook for Monday came out and expanded the enhanced and slight risk farther west I think.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Early hype on this one. Feels legit
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This one could come close to 4-16-2011 and be farther west. This one could also rival 5-5-1989 in the SC and NC piedmont when Chesnee SC and parts of Cleveland and Union counties in NC got hit HARD. A day like 4-4-1989 is in play too when Greenville SC got pounded and GSP got a 74mph gust.
 
One thing I am noticing about this QLCS is the apparent lack of precipitation ahead of it. Often times when we get these wind dynamics (3/15/25 is a good example I think of) and a significant severe threat in March, supercell thunderstorms over MS/AL spread stratiform rain into northern GA and extending into SC/western NC eventually which works in conjunction with CAD to keep the place relatively stable. This setup, however, will favor minimal precipitation ahead of the line to kickstart this stabilizing process, and especially for folks into SC/NC/Mid Atlantic could experience those diurnally driven supercells as well. Definitely a substantial threat to watch this time with the SPC highlighting that region this far out (Met Matthew Cappucci with MyRadar mentioned that he believes this might be the first 30 percent day 4 risk for the mid Atlantic in 10 years).
 
HailCore said:
One thing I am noticing about this QLCS is the apparent lack of precipitation ahead of it. Often times when we get these wind dynamics (3/15/25 is a good example I think of) and a significant severe threat in March, supercell thunderstorms over MS/AL spread stratiform rain into northern GA and extending into SC/western NC eventually which works in conjunction with CAD to keep the place relatively stable. This setup, however, will favor minimal precipitation ahead of the line to kickstart this stabilizing process, and especially for folks into SC/NC/Mid Atlantic could experience those diurnally driven supercells as well. Definitely a substantial threat to watch this time with the SPC highlighting that region this far out (Met Matthew Cappucci with MyRadar mentioned that he believes this might be the first 30 percent day 4 risk for the mid Atlantic in 10 years).
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and yet CAMs keep the squall line very weak in Georgia.

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The 18z GFS brings this through my area around 10-11 am Monday which might just spare us, but any delay in timing would be bad news anywhere east of the mountains in both Carolinas. I-77 and east are probably in trouble and maybe highway 221 and east too if timing is delayed a little.
 
SD said:
Yes but this one might be just a bit delayed and expanded west. Its not quite as eye popping as 2011 but it's probably closer to that than most events since
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This one is probably up there with Easter Sunday 2020 in terms of parameters
 
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NBAcentel said:
This one is probably up there with Easter Sunday 2020 in terms of parameters
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Really feels like this setup is a little early in the season, not sure if that would be of any significance. I do think this one has the potential to throw out alarming tornado and supercell parameters but get forced into a QLCS
 
SD said:
Really feels like this setup is a little early in the season, not sure if that would be of any significance. I do think this one has the potential to throw out alarming tornado and supercell parameters but get forced into a QLCS
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It's early, but not by too much. Our worst tornado outbreak in recent history in NC and SC occurred on 3-28-1984 from Newberry SC through Bennettsville SC and well into eastern NC. This system will not be that strong and as far south though.
 
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JHS said:
It's early, but not by too much. Our worst tornado outbreak in recent history in NC and SC occurred on 3-28-1984 from Newberry SC through Bennettsville SC and well into eastern NC. This system will not be that strong and as far south though.
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I was speaking more of the big bombed parent low in the lakes or up into Canada with a relatively warm/humid airmass in place, not so much it's too early for a tor outbreak.

1984 is really a severe weather unicorn that I want no part of in my life. Strong west based -NAO and a bombing sfc low moving through the region in basically April, no thanks.
 
SD said:
Really feels like this setup is a little early in the season, not sure if that would be of any significance. I do think this one has the potential to throw out alarming tornado and supercell parameters but get forced into a QLCS
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Gonna really need to wait on the hi res and what types of storm modes it shows. Should start getting a better idea by tomorrow evening from the 3k nam and Sunday from the long range Hrrr.
 
0z NAM's lots of junk convection, warm sector is wide open. Cue an infuriating overuse of the phrase downtrending on wxtwitter
 
SD said:
Really feels like this setup is a little early in the season, not sure if that would be of any significance. I do think this one has the potential to throw out alarming tornado and supercell parameters but get forced into a QLCS
Click to expand...
I think the bigger concern here would be backing the low level wind field and carving out supercells in the QLCS like Easter Sunday 2020, and producing supercells (estill SC was a nasty one)
 
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I'm seeing tornado soundings on the 0Z NAM, including a PDS tornado sounding in Chester County SC about 35 miles southeast of my location. Timing for my location looks to be around 12-1 pm too which may just be late enough to get instability going over here. That enhanced from the SPC is looking like a good call and is well placed in location too.

Edit: If the 0z NAM is right timing may not matter as much here. It shows 800 of CAPE here at 11am which would be plenty enough to get things going with the line still back to the west.
 
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That’s one of the sharpest fronts I’ve ever seen modeled. Going to be some insane meteorology ongoing Monday morningIMG_0062.png
 
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