NWMSGuy
Member
I could see a portion of the Day 3 Outlook being upgraded to a Moderate Risk in later outlooks. Will be a busy afternoon and evening for the Mid-South.
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Severe 2026 Severe Thread š©
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
You donāt see this kind of commentary every day
BHS1975
Member
JHS
Member
JHS
Member
I went from barely being in the severe area to being in enhanced now for Mon. ALL of us in both Carolinas and east GA need to pay attention to this.
JHS
Member
After a few days of quiet weather, a stout trough swings into the
area, returning the chances for showers and thunderstorms. Current
guidance depicts a developing low over the central plains and
ejecting northeast and dragging a strong cold front toward the CWA
Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of the front on Sunday, pre-frontal
isentropic lift looks to occur, increasing PoP chances across much
of the region. This is expected to remain more showery than
convective as guidance doesn`t have much in the way of instability
on Sunday. Additionally, southeasterly winds pick up across the
area, increasing gusts across the entire area. Though 15-25 mph
gusts are possible, winds should remain well below any Wind Advisory
criteria. As the front approaches and provides better lift of
parcels, the severe threat increases. At of this forecast, the
timing of the front has slowed down from previous model runs,
meaning the probability of severe weather is increasing. Since the
front is looking to cross into the area during the daytime hours,
this increases the chances for better instability, especially east
of the mountains. Current guidance shows a 40-50% chance of sbCAPE
of 500 J/kg or higher, with the eastern fringe of the NC Piedmont
and portions of SC highlighted. This lines up with the current Day 4
outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Additionally, shear with
this system also packs 50-60kts at the 850mb level and plenty of
moisture at the surface. So, for the time being at this current
forecast, all hazards are possible. As for any tornado potential,
guidance does show a decent amount of 200-250 SRH during the later
afternoon period on Monday. What this indicates is the environment
is supportive of spinning up the lower levels, which could lead to
the development of a brief tornado along the leading edge of the
convective line.
Thoughts from GSP.
Edit : this came out before the new SPC outlook for Monday came out and expanded the enhanced and slight risk farther west I think.
area, returning the chances for showers and thunderstorms. Current
guidance depicts a developing low over the central plains and
ejecting northeast and dragging a strong cold front toward the CWA
Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of the front on Sunday, pre-frontal
isentropic lift looks to occur, increasing PoP chances across much
of the region. This is expected to remain more showery than
convective as guidance doesn`t have much in the way of instability
on Sunday. Additionally, southeasterly winds pick up across the
area, increasing gusts across the entire area. Though 15-25 mph
gusts are possible, winds should remain well below any Wind Advisory
criteria. As the front approaches and provides better lift of
parcels, the severe threat increases. At of this forecast, the
timing of the front has slowed down from previous model runs,
meaning the probability of severe weather is increasing. Since the
front is looking to cross into the area during the daytime hours,
this increases the chances for better instability, especially east
of the mountains. Current guidance shows a 40-50% chance of sbCAPE
of 500 J/kg or higher, with the eastern fringe of the NC Piedmont
and portions of SC highlighted. This lines up with the current Day 4
outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Additionally, shear with
this system also packs 50-60kts at the 850mb level and plenty of
moisture at the surface. So, for the time being at this current
forecast, all hazards are possible. As for any tornado potential,
guidance does show a decent amount of 200-250 SRH during the later
afternoon period on Monday. What this indicates is the environment
is supportive of spinning up the lower levels, which could lead to
the development of a brief tornado along the leading edge of the
convective line.
Thoughts from GSP.
Edit : this came out before the new SPC outlook for Monday came out and expanded the enhanced and slight risk farther west I think.
Tsappfrog20
Member
The NWS Raleigh is now highlighting the severe potential for Monday in There latest AFD!
forecast.weather.gov
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
National Weather Service
forecast.weather.gov
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Early hype on this one. Feels legit
JHS
Member
This one could come close to 4-16-2011 and be farther west. This one could also rival 5-5-1989 in the SC and NC piedmont when Chesnee SC and parts of Cleveland and Union counties in NC got hit HARD. A day like 4-4-1989 is in play too when Greenville SC got pounded and GSP got a 74mph gust.
HailCore
Member
One thing I am noticing about this QLCS is the apparent lack of precipitation ahead of it. Often times when we get these wind dynamics (3/15/25 is a good example I think of) and a significant severe threat in March, supercell thunderstorms over MS/AL spread stratiform rain into northern GA and extending into SC/western NC eventually which works in conjunction with CAD to keep the place relatively stable. This setup, however, will favor minimal precipitation ahead of the line to kickstart this stabilizing process, and especially for folks into SC/NC/Mid Atlantic could experience those diurnally driven supercells as well. Definitely a substantial threat to watch this time with the SPC highlighting that region this far out (Met Matthew Cappucci with MyRadar mentioned that he believes this might be the first 30 percent day 4 risk for the mid Atlantic in 10 years).
BrickTamland
Member