• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

Since the season is over I’d give this past year a F+. Zero storms to track, Gulf was dead.

Not so fast!

1. This won’t come anywhere close to the western basin but it may add some ACE:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
small area of low pressure located about 900 miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for further development of this system during
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the middle part of this week while it moves to the west-northwest
then northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2. Of more importance landfall potential-wise, a followup AEW has been forecasted by a number of runs of various models and ensemble members to develop close to the Lesser Antilles in ~a week. The 18Z GFS and Icon have it, for example.
 
The 0Z UKMET is the first run with the aforementioned followup MDR AEW as a TD with it going just N of due W at a rather brisk pace through the middle of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday (10/19): keep in mind that this is a top tier model that is sometimes genesis shy

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.5N 57.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2025 156 13.8N 59.5W 1010 32
0000UTC 20.10.2025 168 14.1N 62.8W 1009 34
——————

Also, the Icon (0Z) has it yet again.
 
Back
Top