Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

[Csa]

ICON and CMC have something tracking toward the coast at 180-240hrs but looks like it starts recurving around the run's end

 

[lexxnchloe]

ICON and CMC have something tracking toward the coast at 180-240hrs but looks like it starts recurving around the run's end

View attachment 174883

Euro has something as well

 

[lexxnchloe]

Close to being trapped under the high

 

[Rain Cold]

Need to look around the table.





Doesn't look like she's getting home.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Someone stuck ammonia under the GFS's nose

 

[NoSnowATL]

Someone stuck ammonia under the GFS's nose

View attachment 174892


View attachment 174893

Train of OTS hurricanes. Yay

 

[lexxnchloe]

Train of OTS hurricanes. Yay

Actually one does hit Maine

NNW at the end

 

[Csa]

Train of OTS hurricanes. Yay

Good. No death and destruction this season

 

[GaWx]

Like they’ve been showing almost every day for over a week and although they don’t get to above the active avg ACE like they showed 2 weeks ago, the Euro Weeklies still end the below avg ACE starting with the week that begins Sept 22nd. It rises to near the 20 year active avg then and that lasts for the 3 weeks going through Oct 12th. It still has the most active week of the next 4 to be 9/22-28 (with ~13.5 ACE) and the 2nd most active being 9/29-10/5. It’s projecting ~40 ACE 9/15-10/12. That would bring total ACE up to ~80. That would keep season to date ACE well below the active era’s avg of ~103 as of then.

Followup: Today’s EW for weeks 2-4 has significantly more ACE than that of the last 6 runs and is the most active for that 3 week period yet with AN/active each week. Whereas the run from 2 days ago had 40 ACE for 9/15-10/12, this new run has 8+16+13.5+10.5=48. It also shows increased risk to the SE US/Gulf 10/6-12.

 

[Carolina Fever]

The hurricane season forecasts are getting as bad as the winter forecasts for the southeast.

 

[GaWx]

For 60% orange in MDR

0Z UKMET: TS in middle of ocean again
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 16.4N 45.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2025 96 16.4N 45.5W 1005 41
0000UTC 18.09.2025 108 17.6N 47.7W 1005 45
1200UTC 18.09.2025 120 19.7N 49.9W 1006 44
0000UTC 19.09.2025 132 20.6N 51.6W 1006 40
1200UTC 19.09.2025 144 21.4N 53.0W 1005 36
0000UTC 20.09.2025 156 22.5N 53.5W 1004 46
1200UTC 20.09.2025 168 22.9N 55.4W 1002 45

 

[Chazwin]

I really think at this point in terms of the tropics, the biggest concern is anything developing and getting into the Gulf which now seeing its highest heat content on record.

 

[GaWx]

Regarding the MDR AOI:

12Z:
-GFS/CMC/Icon all have this eventually as a H with GFS/CMC both recurving well E of Bermuda (Icon doesn’t go out far enough to tell)

-JMA through 72 has this as a TD at 48 and a TS at 72. This is stronger than the two prior 12Z runs that each had it as only a TD.

-Waiting for Euro

-UKMET again has this as a TS. This is a bit further W than recent runs but it’s still aiming a bit E of Bermuda as of 168:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.4N 47.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2025 72 16.4N 47.4W 1006 40
0000UTC 18.09.2025 84 17.7N 48.8W 1006 42
1200UTC 18.09.2025 96 19.5N 52.1W 1006 44
0000UTC 19.09.2025 108 20.6N 54.3W 1006 40
1200UTC 19.09.2025 120 22.8N 55.1W 1006 44
0000UTC 20.09.2025 132 23.1N 57.0W 1005 43
1200UTC 20.09.2025 144 25.1N 57.7W 1003 46
0000UTC 21.09.2025 156 26.3N 58.6W 1001 49
1200UTC 21.09.2025 168 28.3N 59.3W 999 48