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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

0z GFS struggles to develop initially but then has a strengthening borderline major hurricane in the Bahamas Day 11
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jrips27 said:
Weenie run for sure. This would be a big yikes
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For 300 hours I gotta admit this is kind of a big signal for something. It may not be a direct US hit but the idea of a big storm between Bermuda and Mexico probably isn't a bad one

Its still over Africa too that's the crazy part

I wonder if we won't see 96L the thing in the outlook ahead of it as sort of the sacrifice to create a better environment and threat if we continue to see the models all over it

Clearly something is coming. That's the biggest thing we can take from this because you don't see a signal like this that far out often

Euro is out to sea while the Euro AI is in Louisiana lol long way to go
 
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Brent said:
For 300 hours I gotta admit this is kind of a big signal for something. It may not be a direct US hit but the idea of a big storm between Bermuda and Mexico probably isn't a bad one

Its still over Africa too that's the crazy part

I wonder if we won't see 96L the thing in the outlook ahead of it as sort of the sacrifice to create a better environment and threat if we continue to see the models all over it

Clearly something is coming. That's the biggest thing we can take from this because you don't see a signal like this that far out often

Euro is out to sea while the Euro AI is in Louisiana lol long way to go
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Yeah the signal is strong for something. Going back to what I said about consistency and consensus leading to confidence.........we are getting the consistency and consensus part locked in more each day
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah the signal is strong for something. Going back to what I said about consistency and consensus leading to confidence.........we are getting the consistency and consensus part locked in more each day
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Things to watch for the faster it forms the more likely it probably goes out to sea... If it takes longer or struggles that's worse for the US and also does 96L actually do anything real?

For all this talk of the Atlantic still being allegedly unfavorable as Lex keeps posting about this will be a big test. We don't wanna see this struggle for a week into the Bahamas and then blow up

Remember that the last few years the biggest threats have come from close to home
 
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Shaggy said:
One red flag for me is when something is being shown and it stays in the same time frame and never moves into the mid range. This system seems to like staying in that 300+ time frame
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Maybe I finally saw an image under 300 hours just now 😂

August 20-22
 
We are now seeing a lot of interesting things on the long range models as far as potential tropical systems to watch. Conditions over the Atlantic are slowly improving for tropical development as far as Saharan dust and wind shear are concerned and the African wave train is about to leave the station. Around two weeks from now many of the models have strong hurricane in the Atlantic basin, albeit, at different locations. So far what has developed has been weak in intensity but the weather models are indicating that is about to change. My father in law gave us his generator because he just went into a assisted living facility and if some of the long range model maps that have been posted here verify, it might come in handy very soon.
 
weather bubba said:
We are now seeing a lot of interesting things on the long range models as far as potential tropical systems to watch. Conditions over the Atlantic are slowly improving for tropical development as far as Saharan dust and wind shear are concerned and the African wave train is about to leave the station. Around two weeks from now many of the models have strong hurricane in the Atlantic basin, albeit, at different locations. So far what has developed has been weak in intensity but the weather models are indicating that is about to change. My father in law gave us his generator because he just went into a assisted living facility and if some of the long range model maps that have been posted here verify, it might come in handy very soon.
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I've always heard and told people the real season doesn't start til August 20th and I've seen many years where it magically flips then

Dunno why anyone is panicking now

A week before Harvey it was dead I remember. Harvey had actually died at one point. So did Andrew
 
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Long track stair step system seems likely here, lots of energy on the northern side of a flat ridge across the Atlantic. Each weakness will try to pull it out of the tropics but if it misses it heads back west for a few more days.

Caveat is if it's well displaced south when it emerges from Africa you could in theory run that across the entire atlantic until it finally turned north west of the islands and S of Cuba.
 
Avalanche said:
I’d only go if cat 3 or above
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The last category 3 hurricane to hit the North Carolina coast was Fran back in 1996 which we older folks who have lived here for most or all of our lives remember. Only one category 4 storm has officially been recorded which was Hazel back in 1954. It was the storm that my parents always talked about whenever hurricanes were mentioned. North Carolina has never seen a category 5 hurricane since weather records have been kept and I hope that trend continues.

Many people keep saying we are overdue for a major hurricane to impact the North Carolina coast. I hope this isn't the year that we cash in. There are a lot of people living along the coast now who have no clue about what a major hurricane can do as far as damage.
 
Despite not yet being declared an Invest, I think that a new thread for this AEW in W Africa would probably already be a good idea since it’s been dominating this thread for awhile and isn’t going to stop. I’m guessing it will make the next TWO based on this with it becoming an Invest very soon.

The 12Z UKMET is likely the 1st with a TD from this as it forms in only 114 hours (thus lemon-worthy). After sliding just N of the N Leewards, it ends the run approaching TS strength (33 knts/38 mph winds) 430 miles ENE of PR moving WNW at a pretty brisk 18 mph. It’s 168 is similar to 12Z Icon 180 posted above but is slightly ahead of it. Will have to wait for maps to try to get better idea of whether or not it’s implying it would likely recurve safely offshore the Conus.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.8N 46.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2025 120 16.1N 48.2W 1009 28
0000UTC 14.08.2025 132 17.8N 51.6W 1009 27
1200UTC 14.08.2025 144 18.9N 54.9W 1009 29
0000UTC 15.08.2025 156 20.3N 57.7W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 168 21.4N 60.9W 1007 33
 
GaWx said:
Despite not yet being declared an Invest, I think that a new thread for this AEW in W Africa would probably already be a good idea since it’s been dominating this thread for awhile and isn’t going to stop. I’m guessing it will make the next TWO based on this with it becoming an Invest very soon.

The 12Z UKMET is likely the 1st with a TD from this as it forms in only 114 hours (thus lemon-worthy). After sliding just N of the N Leewards, it ends the run approaching TS strength (33 knts/38 mph winds) 430 miles ENE of PR moving WNW at a pretty brisk 18 mph. It’s 168 is similar to 12Z Icon 180 posted above but is slightly ahead of it. Will have to wait for maps to try to get better idea of whether or not it’s implying it would likely recurve safely offshore the Conus.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.8N 46.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2025 120 16.1N 48.2W 1009 28
0000UTC 14.08.2025 132 17.8N 51.6W 1009 27
1200UTC 14.08.2025 144 18.9N 54.9W 1009 29
0000UTC 15.08.2025 156 20.3N 57.7W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 168 21.4N 60.9W 1007 33
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GFS is back to not developing 96L. When 96L doesnt develop then the next one is stronger and more west

12z no 96L

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weather bubba said:
The last category 3 hurricane to hit the North Carolina coast was Fran back in 1996 which we older folks who have lived here for most or all of our lives remember. Only one category 4 storm has officially been recorded which was Hazel back in 1954. It was the storm that my parents always talked about whenever hurricanes were mentioned. North Carolina has never seen a category 5 hurricane since weather records have been kept and I hope that trend continues.

Many people keep saying we are overdue for a major hurricane to impact the North Carolina coast. I hope this isn't the year that we cash in. There are a lot of people living along the coast now who have no clue about what a major hurricane can do as far as damage.
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The only way to possibly get a cat4 to hit NC is for it to be flying north. If it does what Diana did in 1984 it will weaken

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12Z GEFS: I count ~60% of the 30 members with a TC then from this at hour 204. With regard to the CONUS, there is a mix of a good number of more northern safe recurvers that are tending to be stronger (though possibly threatening Bermuda) and a minority of further south mainly then not as strong that are potential threats. This may be a good representation of the most likely scenarios as is often the case with ensembles:

IMG_4302.png
 
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weather bubba said:
The last category 3 hurricane to hit the North Carolina coast was Fran back in 1996 which we older folks who have lived here for most or all of our lives remember. Only one category 4 storm has officially been recorded which was Hazel back in 1954. It was the storm that my parents always talked about whenever hurricanes were mentioned. North Carolina has never seen a category 5 hurricane since weather records have been kept and I hope that trend continues.

Many people keep saying we are overdue for a major hurricane to impact the North Carolina coast. I hope this isn't the year that we cash in. There are a lot of people living along the coast now who have no clue about what a major hurricane can do as far as damage.
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Damn Im old. I graduated HS in 93. Thought Id be one of the younger ones on a weather forum.
 
Avalanche said:
Damn Im old. I graduated HS in 93. Thought Id be one of the younger ones on a weather forum.
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I have you beat by ten years. I graduated in 1983. Personally, I'm glad there are so many younger members on this website with so much knowledge. They often teach an old dog like me new tricks which is impossible to do according to the old saying.
 
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12Z UKMET maps are in. The question on that run for Conus had it gone out further is would the TD have recurved between those two H5 ridges and allow a safe recurve or would that weakness have filled in to block it and result in a U.S. threat? We’ll never know but fun to speculate:

12 UKMET at 168 sfc: moving WNW at 18 mph 430 miles ENE of PR:
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12Z UKMET at 168 at H5: weakness between ridges just to NW
IMG_4306.png
 
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