lexxnchloe
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AI more realistic
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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
When was the last time a storm had a pressure gradient larger than the size of Texas?
lexxnchloe
Member
Its the way the AI is
lexxnchloe
Member
AI and GFS about the same
lexxnchloe
Member
EURO very similar
lexxnchloe
Member
06Z GFS back to nothing
lexxnchloe
Member
CFS continues to show the winter pattern has set in and it an east atlantic season.
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The western Gulf might be at risk in that pattern, with the trough recurring on the east coast.
lexxnchloe
Member
Its possible. The only realistic chance for a US hit this season is a late season storm moving out of the Carib.
Brent
Member
I'm gonna quote this for later
I mean really the 0z GFS had a doomsday hurricane 8 hours ago but sure everything is cancelled
Like are we serious?
Shaggy
Member
I'm never a big fan of long range monthly forecast.
lexxnchloe
Member
CFS showing the trof is in the EAST for awhile
Shaggy
Member
GeFs 3 run trend. Still looks active with threatening systems. The 06z looks to have a landfalling solution on NC from one of its members
Brent
Member
We can't even predict next week what makes you think we can predict next month
Honestly. Listen to yourself Lex. It's August 7th step away from the keyboard for a few hours. The hurricanes are coming
The 6Z Euro ens 144 hour (end of run) is more active and quite possibly the most active run yet with the current W African AEW. I count 19 closed sfc lows with 4 of those being sub 1000 mb. This is unfortunately setting up to be a potentially very dangerous system down the road for some land areas and is something the Euro Weeklies have been on top of for at least the last 9 days.
For the Conus, itself, I’ll especially be interested in whether or not the MJO is going to be either in or nearby phase 2 (inside or outside the circle), the most dangerous phase per the last 50 years of tracks, around two weeks from now. Model consensus is at least hinting at that possibility. Unlike lex, I don’t want any part of that possibility, especially considering the last few years and most notably the horrible 2024.
This may need its own thread soon due to the strong signal as well as potential threats to land.
For the Conus, itself, I’ll especially be interested in whether or not the MJO is going to be either in or nearby phase 2 (inside or outside the circle), the most dangerous phase per the last 50 years of tracks, around two weeks from now. Model consensus is at least hinting at that possibility. Unlike lex, I don’t want any part of that possibility, especially considering the last few years and most notably the horrible 2024.
This may need its own thread soon due to the strong signal as well as potential threats to land.
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TSR just updated their forecast from last month:
-ACE increased markedly from 126 to 144. This compares to the CSU’s 145 and the Euro seasonal’s ~155.
-The # of NS/H/MH increased slightly from 15/7/3 to 16/8/3.
-However, US impacts remained the same at 4 NS/2 H.
-ACE increased markedly from 126 to 144. This compares to the CSU’s 145 and the Euro seasonal’s ~155.
-The # of NS/H/MH increased slightly from 15/7/3 to 16/8/3.
-However, US impacts remained the same at 4 NS/2 H.
Models are kind of bucking the mjo composites towards the end of their run. Mjo would favor a lingering us threat but the models shoving the ridge west with a trough east really wouldn't
lexxnchloe
Member
Shaggy
Member
All the more reason to not watch every single model run cuz everything is just going to recurve anyway why bother watching
W African AEW:
1. The 12Z ICON is slightly stronger than the 0Z with the W African AEW. At 180, it has what already looks like nearly a TD at 19N, 46W. Although a TC near that position often recurves safely, this one is turning back to just N of due W after moving WNW earlier due to a stronger high to its north at this longitude.
2. The 12Z UKMET doesn’t have this. However, the 0Z had this, which may be from the same AEW:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.4N 18.6W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2025 120 15.6N 21.0W 1009 28
1200UTC 12.08.2025 132 15.0N 24.0W 1010 27
0000UTC 13.08.2025 144 15.4N 26.0W 1010 23
1200UTC 13.08.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING
1. The 12Z ICON is slightly stronger than the 0Z with the W African AEW. At 180, it has what already looks like nearly a TD at 19N, 46W. Although a TC near that position often recurves safely, this one is turning back to just N of due W after moving WNW earlier due to a stronger high to its north at this longitude.
2. The 12Z UKMET doesn’t have this. However, the 0Z had this, which may be from the same AEW:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.4N 18.6W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2025 120 15.6N 21.0W 1009 28
1200UTC 12.08.2025 132 15.0N 24.0W 1010 27
0000UTC 13.08.2025 144 15.4N 26.0W 1010 23
1200UTC 13.08.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
Another up and out east of bermuda run. The trend is obvious now. CFS is great for pattern recognition
lexxnchloe
Member
I seriously doubt we will have a storm so close directly underneath a cane like this. If it werent for that 965mb nothing the other storm would be west bound.
lexxnchloe
Member
Should be an awesome pattern and the ATL still mucks it up. You can see the trof is in a perfect place west of the coast and its still an east of bermuda parade.
lexxnchloe
Member
Some good news but will they all recurve?
Shaggy
Member
Through 222hrs the gefs seems more active and further SW. This is a 3 run trend. First time In a while with a system in the islands
lexxnchloe
Member
AI remains consistent and gets it to the coast. The reason why is because the AI doesnt develop that first cane that screws everything up
lexxnchloe
Member
EURO almost identical to AI. Can anything develop in the dry air though?
Shaggy
Member
It's clear the GEFS is more closely aligned with the euro AI than the gfs OP run
Shaggy
Member
Quite a finish to the GFS ensemble
The 12Z JMA once again refuses to recurve 96L. It keeps it weak (TDish) and it hits ~Vero Beach, FL, as a 1011 TD at 192 (8/15). This is a far left outlier, which sometimes happens with the JMA. Due to ridging to its N, it is moving mainly W and toward the Gulf.
(The weak low near Barbados is from the W African wave.)
(The weak low near Barbados is from the W African wave.)
Someone is going to wishcast it right into your backyard
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
Changes on 18Z GFS. 1ST cane weaker and further north. Num 2 stronger and a bit more south
12Z
12Z
JHS
Member
The NC SC border gets a major hit on the 18z GFS at 360. Wilmington would be pounded. But of course, it'll be gone in 6 hours. That track looks a lot like Fran from 1996. Both the Triad and Triangle would be pounded, along with the Charlotte area.
Shaggy
Member
This is the run you've been waiting on @lexxnchloe
JHS
Member
That area is overdue too. It's been a while for Wilmington.
lexxnchloe
Member
EURO/ AI. and GFS basically agree now that the GFS has dropped the first cane. Normally i would say with all 3 agreeing its very likely a major cane will be somewhere in the SW ATL but i am still wondering about all that dry air.
Shaggy
Member
It's also 300 hours out so it's liable to end up at the Yucatan. It's clear the ensembles are leading the way. The GEFS at 12z was heavy loaded to a SE threat the 18z op followed
