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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

The 6Z Euro ens 144 hour (end of run) is more active and quite possibly the most active run yet with the current W African AEW. I count 19 closed sfc lows with 4 of those being sub 1000 mb. This is unfortunately setting up to be a potentially very dangerous system down the road for some land areas and is something the Euro Weeklies have been on top of for at least the last 9 days.

For the Conus, itself, I’ll especially be interested in whether or not the MJO is going to be either in or nearby phase 2 (inside or outside the circle), the most dangerous phase per the last 50 years of tracks, around two weeks from now. Model consensus is at least hinting at that possibility. Unlike lex, I don’t want any part of that possibility, especially considering the last few years and most notably the horrible 2024.

IMG_4291.png

This may need its own thread soon due to the strong signal as well as potential threats to land.
 
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W African AEW:

1. The 12Z ICON is slightly stronger than the 0Z with the W African AEW. At 180, it has what already looks like nearly a TD at 19N, 46W. Although a TC near that position often recurves safely, this one is turning back to just N of due W after moving WNW earlier due to a stronger high to its north at this longitude.

2. The 12Z UKMET doesn’t have this. However, the 0Z had this, which may be from the same AEW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.4N 18.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2025 120 15.6N 21.0W 1009 28
1200UTC 12.08.2025 132 15.0N 24.0W 1010 27
0000UTC 13.08.2025 144 15.4N 26.0W 1010 23
1200UTC 13.08.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING
 
GaWx said:
W African AEW:

1. The 12Z ICON is slightly stronger than the 0Z with the W African AEW. At 180, it has what already looks like nearly a TD at 19N, 46W. Although a TC near that position often recurves safely, this one is turning back to just N of due W after moving WNW earlier due to a stronger high to its north at this longitude.

2. The 12Z UKMET doesn’t have this. However, the 0Z had this, which may be from the same AEW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.4N 18.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2025 120 15.6N 21.0W 1009 28
1200UTC 12.08.2025 132 15.0N 24.0W 1010 27
0000UTC 13.08.2025 144 15.4N 26.0W 1010 23
1200UTC 13.08.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING
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1754583198757.png
 
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I seriously doubt we will have a storm so close directly underneath a cane like this. If it werent for that 965mb nothing the other storm would be west bound.
 
The 12Z JMA once again refuses to recurve 96L. It keeps it weak (TDish) and it hits ~Vero Beach, FL, as a 1011 TD at 192 (8/15). This is a far left outlier, which sometimes happens with the JMA. Due to ridging to its N, it is moving mainly W and toward the Gulf.

(The weak low near Barbados is from the W African wave.)

IMG_4294.png
 
lexxnchloe said:
EURO/ AI. and GFS basically agree now that the GFS has dropped the first cane. Normally i would say with all 3 agreeing its very likely a major cane will be somewhere in the SW ATL but i am still wondering about all that dry air.
Click to expand...
It's also 300 hours out so it's liable to end up at the Yucatan. It's clear the ensembles are leading the way. The GEFS at 12z was heavy loaded to a SE threat the 18z op followed
 
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