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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

GaWx said:
Regarding the MDR orange:

1. The 12Z GFS has this hit near Cape Canaveral on 8/16 as a ~cat 1 H, which is a little before Lexx’s map above is showing.

2. The 12Z Euro like recent runs and has this as no more than a weak sfc low. It then recurves the weak disturbance safely well out in the ocean. So, it is totally disagreeing with the GFS’s FL hit.
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GaWx said:
In case anyone is confused, this on the Euro-AI is from the followup AEW. The Euro op. hits the Yucatan with this followup AEW, but neither does anything with the current MDR AOI.
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Yea, they have dropped the first wave. 1754418245564.pngEuro needs to look at its ensembles and realize it needs to wake up.
 
Regarding the orange AOI now in the E MDR:

1. The GFS continues as of today’s Happy Hour run to not safely recurve this as it grazes the Conus E coast from NC to ME followed by a direct hit on Nova Scotia. The storm then goes into Newfoundland.

2. The 12Z JMA once again also doesn’t recurve this. It has it just N of PR moving WNW at the end (192 hrs).
 
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Shaggy said:
From Nola to offshore to nothing its all over.
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Right? It's not just here either I've seen it several times on social media today people posting the GFS over the east coast and totally ignoring the runs not showing it

Like it doesn't make any sense

On the other side the guy behind Icyclone just posted the EPS and said things will probably be picking up. Big difference. People are ignoring what they should be looking at

The truth is theres a hundred scenarios for mid month and nobody can tell you otherwise
 
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lexxnchloe said:
I had a feeling yesterday morning the models were going to drop development

0Z

View attachment 173932



18Z

View attachment 173933
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I don't think you can say anything based off the GFS which changes every 6 hours but maybe it won't

The last thing we need is a big hurricane anyway

I'm sure there's gonna be plenty at some point. A few years ago August was dead and we still had Ian

Again watch the ensembles for the 400th time
 
Shaggy said:
One question I would ask is if this is similar to the pattern in winter of models showing systems in the long range then losing them for a bit then bringing them back. Seems the setup is for something to pop based on all the indices lining up.
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Maybe but its also still early August. I think the only reason this might fail is it's just too early. A few weeks from now will be different. How many times have I said lately the main season has been September and October

But I've also seen things flip practically overnight several times too. Anyone drawing a conclusion over a GFS run is gonna get burned eventually

Also the GFS and Euro both have a hurricane in the Gulf or near Cuba beyond 300 hours so Im not sure what we're complaining about. The first storm before that may go out to sea anyway
 
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The latest Euro Weeklies (yesterday’s run) remain quite active vs active 20 year climo base ACE (>200%) through ~8/24. Then they cool down to close to active avg 8/25-31 (100%). The first stab at 9/1-7 is slightly below the active climo (80%). I wonder if this is MJO related.

Regarding absolute ACE, the very active Aug 18-24 is the most active week through Sept 7. As per what I’ve recently posted, the EW progs did fairly well in general last year overall looking out several weeks when they were consistent for, say, 7 days in a row. They’ve been consistent regarding well above 20 year climo levels of activity for 8/11-8/24 for at least that long.

Regarding 8/25-31, they’ve been near that 20 year climo for 3 runs. So, I still want to see how the rest of this week’s runs look before giving too much weight to its 8/25-31. Of course, 9/1-7 is a total crap-shoot right now with that slightly below 20 year climo being just its first prog.
 
Regarding the MDR AOI, which is now Invest 96L:
Now that the GFS has finally caved, the JMA is about the lone holdout of the major globals and is consistent with the last two days of its 12Z (extended) runs. The 12Z has it near 26N, 75W, or ~100 miles NE of the central Bahamas as a 994 mb high end TS . It is just then moving WNW to NW and starting a recurve. Regardless, it doesn’t appear to be a safe recurve for the US E coast.

With the JMA now being the lone main operational global outlier and with the major ensembles having very few members like this, this is very likely wrong. I remember times when it was a far left outlier and ended up dead wrong.
IMG_4286.png
 
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GaWx said:
Regarding the MDR AOI, which is now Invest 96L:
Now that the GFS has finally caved, the JMA is about the lone holdout of the major globals and is consistent with the last two days of its 12Z (extended) runs. The 12Z has it near 26N, 75W, or ~100 miles NE of the central Bahamas as a 994 mb high end TS . It is just then moving WNW to NW and starting a recurve. Regardless, it doesn’t appear to be a safe recurve for the US E coast.

With the JMA now being the lone main operational global outlier and with the major ensembles having very few members like this, this is very likely wrong. I remember times when it was a far left outlier and ended up dead wrong.
View attachment 173948
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If anything whatever forms will trend even further east.
 
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