Brent
Member
He said we were gonna get "blasted" by snow last week 12 hours out and we had 2-3 inches
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Severe 2025 Severe Thread
- Thread starter SD
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He said we were gonna get "blasted" by snow last week 12 hours out and we had 2-3 inches
Day 7 on the map.
He also screams when he eats pasta, when he takes a poo, when he answers the phone, when he orders at the McD's drive thru.....basically he screams at whatever is happening in every moment.
BufordWX
Member
Looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will be the most active days next week. Tuesday over the lower Mississippi valley, and if there is enough instability, there could see some more activity further east on Wednesday.
After next week, the middle of March might be the next timeframe to watch. Although, that is still a ways out.
After next week, the middle of March might be the next timeframe to watch. Although, that is still a ways out.
Instability is always a question in the winter. But there should be a pretty strong southerly flow from the Gulf Of Cold Rain as the system moves east.
The best dynamics separate and head northeast with the parent low as everything translates east. However, yesterday, the system was modeled a but more to the south.
The models are in remarkably good agreement on there being a storm and also on the general track. I have pretty good confidence that severe weather will occur from the ArkLaTex eastward potentially to the coast.
The active pattern is coming back.
BufordWX
Member
Im pretty sure these maps change a lot, but definitely looks like an active pattern shaping up for the middle of March.
This is the first CFS map I've ever seen for severe weather. I thought we only unearthed those in winter when nothing else was showing snow.
A little early but next week's setup is looking worthy of a separate thread. Potential board-wide severe threat days 6-7, and already a 30% area outlined for day 6.
tennessee storm
Member
March 14. Th. 15 th time frame needs be very closely watchd for perhaps the seasons first real dangerous system for a severe outbreak looks like Webber right on cue. The ensemble support is quiet alarming
tractor girl
Member
Please share ensembles
tennessee storm
Member
Wish someone could post todays 12zgfs my phone not allowing me to this time for some
Reason. Todays runs is plain gut wrenching
WxBlue
Meteorologist
GFS is wanting to destroy the Dixie Alley, I guess. Really large warm, moist sector over MS/AL into TN with great kinematics to work with... and yes, similar-ish to THAT day.
Yeesh
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Still will need to see how globals are going to evolve with ridges/troughs... but GFS is almost perfect right now with 9 days to go and we know things doesn't stay like that for that long. It is worth noting, though, that the noise for 4/27/11 started about 7 days out and that was a pretty good range for 2011 era of weather forecasting. Mid-March is something to keep an eye on at this point with this many runs pointing to something over central/western Dixie Alley.
tennessee storm
Member
Today s 12z euro in the gfs camp on mid month storm, perhaps slightly larger warm sector pushing north
NWMSGuy
Member
Impressive on the 12Z GFS: 
tractor girl
Member
Impressive reach all the way up into my area by mid to late afternoon.
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tractor girl
Member
18z backs down. Likely to be continued shifts, but will be interesting to watch
tennessee storm
Member
Basically got the same
Concept with trough … just smaller warm
Sector . You going get model fluctuations this far out … I oay
More attention to 12z. And
0z runs more than 6z
18z
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
That's nasty!
tractor girl
Member
Looking like this will be more of a South Central threat than Deep South.
Brent
Member
Off to a fast start here 
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
It would be a record-setter. My concern is moisture return. Looking at the Euro DP progs, low level moisture transport is unimpressive. That said, there will undoubtedly be a lot of wind energy, and we will see high wind warnings and wind advisories, along with blizzard conditions on the cold side.
There will definitely be severe weather, but the extent is unclear, and it doesn't look like a major outbreak yet.
I'd be more concerned if the storm system was farther south.
tennessee storm
Member
18zgfs straight out tornado outbreak . Two days event Friday night over mid miss valley into midsoiuth Saturday over Dixie tenn valley … cape is getting ridicules for
March standards … each run keeps on increasing rich moisture Todays runs least
March standards … each run keeps on increasing rich moisture Todays runs least
tennessee storm
Member
You thought the 18zgfs was bad … 0.
Z gfs says hold my jockey strap for
Me
Z gfs says hold my jockey strap for
Me
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Belle Lechat
Member
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It got down to 969. Ridiculous. Meanwhile, the Euro came up in pressure.
BufordWX
Member
Only a single model run, and its the GFS as well, but this could be a problem. Pretty impressive warm sector.
Brent
Member
Huge day 6 outlook already 
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Day 7.
Brent
Member
Brent
Member
A 30 percent chance on day 5 AND 6 
A regional outbreak of severe storms is forecast late Friday
afternoon into the overnight hours.
A regional outbreak of severe storms is forecast late Friday
afternoon into the overnight hours.
Drscottsmith
Member
Has a greater percentage than 30 ever been forecast in a day 5/6 outlook?
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
One of the big differences with this one is it appears instability will be there. A second surface low will also form on Saturday in a favorable spot for a significant severe weather in Dixie Alley.
Yeah that's the key. The secondary low will help with moisture transport farther east. Probably will pose a localized flooding risk too.